Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[Berwick Bay]

I'm looking for upper level conditions in West Central Gulf to improve markedly next week. Thinking that the deep trough in which Barry formed at the southern end will evacuate the Gulf by then. More stable air mass (upper levels) to be centered over the Northern Coast of the Yucutan and further north into the West Central Gulf. Expect to see storms firing near Northwestern Point of Yucutan Pennisula and spreading into the Western Gulf. Some influx of moisture perhaps from off the upper Mexican Coast. Best point for development to be about 100-150 miles northwest of the Yucutan (this is not the Bay of Campeche, we're talking well north of there). If I had to pick a point I would say about 24N and 92W. Best time frame for development in 9-12 days, June 13-June 16. One other point, if this forecast for development bears out, then I "see" a significant chance for hurricane formation at that time (and perhaps stronger than minimal). Okay, thats it.

[Berwick Bay]

I want to apologize for forgetting to put the disclaimer at the beginning of my "forecast". I will put it now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxmann_91]

Hey Berwick. I forgot to express kudos in the other thread, so I'll do it here. Fantastic job on Barry. Best of luck in verification this goaround

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Good Job Berwick, good job on Barry.

[southerngreen]

to ultimately follow a course somewhat like claudette 2003?
i have been watching the players lining up, but was thinking it might be a little more sw of 92w/24n, but after your call on barry i'd bet on your hand, not mine

[Jagno]

Okay BB, now you've really got me nervous since I am located near the northwest part of the Gulf. I'm just a novice so I'm asking, with the steering currents and weather patterns just exactly where do you see this development heading? I understand fully that this is a "prediction" and therefore a best guess estimate. I'll take the chances and do what is necessary to protect my home and family any day. This is very important to me as I still have alot of hurricane debris (insurance litigation) on my property that would not do well in a hurricane. My place of business is just 8' from a 2 story apartment building that is heavily damaged and not yet repaired (insurance litigation).

The article below states Claudette was a Cat1 and BB is indicating a possibility of a "stronger than minimal" hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003claudette.shtml?
Hurricane Claudette made landfall in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as a tropical storm. It maintained tropical storm status for more than 24 hours after landfall in Texas.

[Berwick Bay]

Jagno, I hope the following makes you feel better. Remember it, don't forget.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am only an amateur making a very long range and difficult call. "9-12 days from now" is a light year in tropical time. Keep that in mind. Also, there's no way right now that I would possibly make any kind of "unofficial prediction" concerning course or direction. The storm does not yet exist in the material world. I did mention the word "hurricane". I prefer the older designation "minimal", which refered to a storm of 75-80 mph strength. My point is that if there is indeed development in the West-Central Gulf in mid June, we should not assume that the storm could not be stronger than the minimal variety. Mid-June storms in the Western Gulf have been known to bring 100 mph winds to our coasts. The important thing is to wait and see if there will in fact be a storm to materialize at about 24N and 92W. All other discussions will have to wait.

[JonathanBelles]

God has spoken!

does this have any chance of moving toward Tallahassee during the last week of the month. I have a semi-vacation that week.

[HouTXmetro]

Wow... another bold prediction. If this comes into fruition they need to put you on the NHC payroll!! Anyways, I know your forecasst may bust (maybe not) lol, but I like the reasoning behind the predictions.

[AnnularCane]

Right now I'm assuming you just got lucky with Barry, but if you get this one right, I think I'm going to feel a little spooked.

[Opal storm]

Well I'll be keeping a glance on this area for sure, thanks for your thoughts BB.

[stormraider]

lucky, yes, but everyone has a shot at guessing where the next one will be. Kudos to BB....

[Extremeweatherguy]

very bold predcition BB (espcially since I live along the NW Gulf coast). It will be interesting to see if you can actually go 2/2 in calling these storms. If you can..then you need a job at the NHC for sure. May be they should set up a "future storms" division. lol.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope you're wrong BB, I just moved near the NW Coast.

[x-y-no]

Right now I'm assuming you just got lucky with Barry, but if you get this one right, I think I'm going to feel a little spooked.

Me too.

[hawkeh]

I'll be watching this area closely after your last prediction.

[Weatherfreak000]

I would have taken the glory and left Berwick if I were you.


Now to have all these people hawking your every prediction? That's a scary thought....

Wouldn't mind seeing your forecast verify though honestly, June hurricanes are rare to come by....even if they are just Cat 1's

[KWT]

Interesting call BB, i presume your guessing the sub-tropical arm of the jet really dies down and becomes flatter further to the north of where its been recently, thats what the long range GFS showed last night, not sure if it still is mind you!
Also when you look at previous June's a lot of systems have formed in the area he suggests as well, including the powerful Hurricane Audrey as well.
Still who knows, its a brave call and will get loads of peoples attentions if its right.

[gatorcane]

Oh God....Berwick I hope you are wrong....

If you are right I will be floored.

[Berwick Bay]

Interesting call BB, i presume your guessing the sub-tropical arm of the jet really dies down and becomes flatter further to the north of where its been recently, thats what the long range GFS showed last night, not sure if it still is mind you!
Also when you look at previous June's a lot of systems have formed in the area he suggests as well, including the powerful Hurricane Audrey as well.
Still who knows, its a brave call and will get loads of peoples attentions if its right.

Yes "KWT" I am "guessing" that the Jet will lessen as the trough which contained Barry finally pulls out. If thats what the GFS says (I don't really pay much attention to models) then so be it, I agree. Now I think the more stable upper environment (generally over the Belize area) will begin to drift NW at that time. It will bring with it an environment conducive to thunderstorm development. There has been persistent storminess now for quite some time near Belize and the western Yucutan Coast. I believe that within a few days these storms will gather height and intensity over the Yucutan landmass. The critical juncture will occur as the whole environment begins to "center itself" right along the NW point of the Yucutan. At that time, I believe that there will be a large moist environment over the entire Western half of the Gulf. You can almost see this "moist environment" already beginning to edge into the Western Gulf. With that enviroment and stable upper level conditions along the northern Yucutan Penninsula, I think we might begin to see a low pressure at the surface very near the NW tip of the Yucutan. This area should just drift slowly NW off the Coast and into the Gulf, all the while acquiring organization. Now I mean a SlOW DRIFT NW, don't read too much into the movement just yet. I would look for an upgrade to Depression or perhaps even Tropical Storm status at about 24N and 92W. At that point I might be concerned that the system has an opportunity to become a bonafide hurricane in the West Central Gulf. That how I see it at this point.