Tropical Depression Alvin=Last Advisory Written

[JonathanBelles]

Hes not naked any more, and he's lookin good.

[AnnularCane]

Any chance he could make a comeback?

[MiamiensisWx]

It appears that a convective burst has occurred while the system is under marginally favorable conditions. A weak upper-level ridge (and marginal thermodynamics) has provided support for the low-level structure. In addition, the system is regaining a weak stacked appearance. Because of the presence of a well-defined low-level circulation, I believe that the overall data indicates that the remnants of Alvin may be regaining TD status. In addition, a warm core is still extant. See the latest visible loop.

[Chacor]

First classification in about 36 hours...

02/1200 UTC 11.8N 119.1W TOO WEAK ALVIN -- East Pacific Ocean

[HurricaneRobert]

There's been a huge flareup of the remnants of Alvin this afternoon.

[Cyclenall]

Alvin is still up on the NRL and has in fact lasted longer then Barbara did on the site. There are quite a bit more thunderstorms around it and it shows it's 25 knots.

[BigA]

The resurgence of Alvin surprised me. There is a fair amount of deep convection which is appearing around the center, and it has the image of a tropical system, rather than merely remanants The water where former Alvin is looks like it is warm enough to support a tropical system, especially a weak tropical storm.

[HurricaneRobert]

It's looking well-organized this evening:

[AnnularCane]

Alvin seems to have been flaring for days now. I wonder what his chances are. The NHC doesn't seem to think he will come back at this point.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to have a closed LLC with 20-25 knot winds. Also convection is starting to become more organized...We will see if shear stays low enough for some redevelopment.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_0.html

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040330
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SUN JUN 3 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF ALVIN...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

I'm not sure why this keeps being talked about. Just the fact that it's still being discussed means something. I wonder what else it needs to do to be upgraded to back to TD status (closed off LLC?). I don't think it's too disorganized compared to when it was a TC .

[Chacor]

Alvin looks better now than Barry ever did.

[Chacor]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041058
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT MON JUN 4 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF ALVIN...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

04/0600 UTC 11.6N 122.0W T1.5/1.5 ALVIN -- East Pacific Ocean

[HurricaneRobert]

This is so close to the CPac. It will be still be called Alvin, right?

[Chacor]

This is so close to the CPac. It will be still be called Alvin, right?

The CPac starts at 140W. Good question, otherwise. Technically, if there is a basin-crosser UNDER depression strength, per the 2007 National Hurricane Op Plan, the standard would be to assign a new name and designation to the remnants.

2007 NHOP page 25:

The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain
the name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated (RSMC)
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.

Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.

[HURAKAN]

04/1200 UTC 10.7N 122.9W T1.5/1.5 ALVIN -- East Pacific Ocean



Not bad for redevelopment. Good Alvin!!!

[WmE]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT MON JUN 4 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF ALVIN...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

NHC mentions the possibility of redevelopment for the first time.

[HurricaneRobert]

Is there a center around 9N 126W?

[Chacor]

Is there a center around 9N 126W?

I noticed that on the ascending 01Z QuikSCAT pass. The main (ill-defined) circulation is about 5 degrees to the east, but yes there seems to be a circulation near 126/7W too.

[HURAKAN]

Looking bad again. Bad Alvin, Bad Alvin!!!