Akash and Gonu thread

[wxmann_91]

The WV loop does show what the CIRA analysis was suggesting all along: very, very, very dry air and very low PW's are moving southeastward across the Persian Gulf. Thus far actually, Gonu has done a good job of fighting the already pretty dry air just to its NW. Once an ERC starts, the weakening should commence, because...

1) Gonu increases in size and inflow necessity, meaning it will definitely begin to draw in vast quantities of dry air
2) While in the ERC stage, it is weakened, leaving it more vulnerable to dry air

My forecast: it will peak within the next 12 hr as a strong Cat 4, then weaken and strike Oman as a strong 1.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

"If" this where to hold together at least a tropical storm into the gulf of Omen or Perisan gulf then history will be made. The strongest storm I've found is 2001 at 115 knots.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yes wxman....does look similar to Cimaron (such a beautiful storm it's my desktop background!)

One of the analysis from JTWC in my inbox now has T# of 7:

608
TPIO10 PGTW 040607

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU)

B. 04/0530Z

C. 19.2N/2

D. 64.9E/9

E. ONE/MET7

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (04/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 11NM OW EYE SURR BY CMG RING YIELDS
DT OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJ. RAPID DEVELOPMENT
YIELDS UNREP MET OF 5.5. PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT AND PT.

SCANLIN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Some of the hottest sst's on earth is under this system 86+ degrees over a wide area. The only reason why this area doe's not see much more systems like this, is because of shear and dry air. This thing is making history.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 7.1 / 894.2mb/143.0kt

Cimiss t,,,This thing is still bombing big time. I could see this if the envirnment remains favorable take a run at 7.5t. We will see.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow. JTWC have this at 130kts now - a serious whopper!

WTIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.1N 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.9N 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.6N 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.4N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.6N 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

[HURAKAN]

[font=Georgia]THE BEST CYCLONE OF THE SEASON:[/font]

[P.K.]

Gonu isn't too far from Super Cyclonic Storm status.

Dated: 4th June, 2007


Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “GONU’ over East
Central and adjoining west & north Arabian Sea


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI


TROPICAL STORM “GONU” ADVISORY NO. SEVENTEEN ISSUED AT 1030 UTC OF 4TH JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 4TH JUNE 2007. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “GONU” OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF 4TH JUNE 2007 NEAR LAT. 19.50N AND LONG 64.50E, ABOUT 580 KMS SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (42731).


CURRENT INTENSITY T6.0 RPT T6.0 SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW VISIBLE “EYE” WITH SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 115-125 KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T6.5 RPT T6.5. SEA CONDITION WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

[HURAKAN]

P.K, Does India uses 10-min or 1-min in their windspeeds?

[P.K.]

10 min.

I was just looking at this, note how much it has intensified in the last three hours in the public advisory above.

FKIN20 VIDP 040830

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20070604/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI.
TC: GONU
NR: 08


PSN: N1900 E06430
MOV: NW07KT
C: 952HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT GUSTING TO 110KT


FCST PSN+12HRS: 041800 N1930 E06330
MAX WIND+12HRS: 110KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 050000 N2000 E06230
MAX WIND+18HRS: 120KT
FCST PSN+24HRS: 050600 N2030 E06200
MAX WIND+24HRS: 120KT


NEXT MSG: 20070604/1200Z

[HURAKAN]

MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 115-125 KTS

We're talking of winds around 131-142.5 knots (151-164 mph). With confidence I can say this is a Category 5 cyclone.

[Chacor]

0830Z SAB: T7.0

REMARKS...GONU CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE. WMG EYE SURROUNDED
BY CMG RING RESULTING IN A DT OF 7.5. MET = 5.5 AND PT = 7.0.
FINAL-T BASED ON PT.

0530Z JTWC: T7.0

03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 11NM OW EYE SURR BY CMG RING YIELDS
DT OF 7.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJ. RAPID DEVELOPMENT
YIELDS UNREP MET OF 5.5. PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT AND PT.

0530Z AFWA: T6.5

03A/ PBO EYE/ANMTN. EMBEDDED DISTANCE MEASURES 60NM
FROM LLCC, YIELDING AN E6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE
ADJUSTMENT FOR A DT OF 6.5. PT AGREES. MET IS UNREP
AT 5.5. CNSTRNTS BRKN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

1100Z CIMSS: CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 7.1 / 894.2mb/143.0kt

[P.K.]

Just to add to your list the latest New Delhi T estimate is 6.0.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/cyclone.jpg

[Chacor]

Just to add to your list the latest New Delhi T estimate is 6.0.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/cyclone.jpg

Seems a bit low...

[Chacor]

I don't like that forecast track... Muscat as a TS? Wow.

[P.K.]

Well T6.5 is a super cyclonic storm so it must be pretty close to that if not that already (Which it probably is by now given all those other estimates).

[CrazyC83]

JTWC estimates pressure at 910mb.

[Chacor]

The latest sat reading:

389
TPIO10 KGWC 041210
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU)
B. 04/1131Z (29)
C. 19.9N/9
D. 64.1E/1
E. ONE/MET7
F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS/ -04/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

03A/ PBO EYE/ANMTN. 18 NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED
BY 47 NM WHT RING YIELDING AN E6.0. ADDED 1.0
FOR EYE ADJ YIELDING A FT OF 7.0. FT BASED ON
DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 5.5.

LONG

Now consensus T7.0 from SAB, JTWC, AFWA.

[Chacor]

02AGONU.140kts-898mb

[WmE]

Wow, what a storm!