Akash and Gonu thread

[Chacor]

1999 Cyclone 05B max windspeed from JTWC was also 140 kt, to compare. PK, do you happen to have IMD's peak for that storm?

[HurricaneRobert]

Reuters AlertNet refers to it as Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu.

[Chacor]

Reuters AlertNet refers to it as Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu.

Won't be surprised if the IMD does decide to upgrade it to Super Cyclonic Storm status at their next advisory.

[btangy]

Advanced Dvorak Technique (source: CIMSS) is currently at 7.1 (894.2mb/143.0kt). Raw T numbers in between 6-12Z were actually above 7.5! The current eyewall replacement cycle that is occuring has brought down the numbers somewhat.

Gonu is currently over an axis of high potential intensity (http://wxmaps.org/pix/nindpot.png). Also, the depth of the warm water extends fairly far down helping to fuel Gonu's intense winds. The potential intensity and ocean heat content is lower in the direction that Gonu is heading.

The present motion is still NW. In general, model guidance has consolidated somewhat with the GFS and ECMWF shifting further N and the NOGAPS shifting further S. The GFDN is a N outlier and wants to recurve Gonu into extreme E Iran. If you trust the model guidance, Gonu should turn more toward the W today, but so far there aren't indications that this has occurred (EDIT: last few frames of IR indicate either a wobble toward the WNW or a shift in track has occurred).

[HurricaneRobert]

Has it grown since last night? It looks exactly the same, but it appears to take up a lot of space in satellite presentations. The above article is predicting a Category 3-strength landfall. With a 74 mb pressure drop, anything could happen. Maybe Gonu will peak at 160 knots.

[HURAKAN]

[font=Arial Black]¡¡¡WOW!!![/font]

[Scorpion]

Incredible.... I am eating my words this morning. This reminds me of Monica.

[Chacor]

WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 64.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 64.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.8N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.4N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.1N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.0N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.5N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 63.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (GONU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A SECOND
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. A WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN
THE TWO RIDGES DUE TO A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THAT CONTINUE TO TRANSIT NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN IRAN AND THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF IRAN AFTER
TAU 48. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT THIS STRONG
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
INTO THE GULF OF OMAN. EGRR, GFS, ECMWF AND AFWA MM5 DEPICT A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER SAUDI ARABIA AND THEREFORE LESS OF A TURN
NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, KEEPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOW. WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE STORM HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WATER WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, BUT MAINTAINS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT
OF DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND THEN LAND EFFECTS AFTER
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF OMAN. DUE
TO LAND EFFECTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, TC 02A IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER THE GULF OF OMAN BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//

Category 5 on SSHS now.

[Chacor]

Latest track takes it right over Muscat, Oman as an 80-kts (1-min) tropical cyclone before re-emerging into water and possibly hitting Iran.

[Ivanhater]

Seeing them never gets old...simply amazing

[WmE]

I'm speechless. What an impressive system.

[Chacor]

IMD has held intensity at 12Z to 934 hPa, 115 kt (gusting 125 kt). Still expected to intensify though, according to IMD.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE COAST OF OMAN BY FORENOON OF 06TH JUNE 2007.

[JonathanBelles]

Oh man! oman should be glad its weakening.

[Chacor]

Some quick research... last major TC to hit Muscat was a monsoon cyclone in 1890, which claimed almost 700 lives. Let's hope Gonu isn't as bad... although it's forecast to be 80kts at Muscat.

[curtadams]

Oman's oil export terminal is just outside of Muscat so the current track could have some serious economic implications, depending on how storm-hardened the infrastructure is and how strong Gonu is when it gets there. Fortunately Gonu must go over land to hit Muscat with its strong side.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Winds spiked to 160mph with gust to 195!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hurricanefloyd5]

please change title to gonu winds at 160mph

[Chacor]

please change title to gonu winds at 160mph

No I'd rather not, because that's the JTWC. IMD, which is the WMO-designated centre, doesn't have it that high. The SSHS categroy in the title is already there as a comparison.

[pup55]

321 energy

the current track could have some serious economic implications

You got that right. The price of oil is up $1.50 per barrel today.

[secretforecaster]

WOW!!!!!!!! This is amazing & scary at the same time.