Severe weather outbreak - June 6-8 - Plains to Northeast

[CrazyC83]

new SPC day 2 forecast is out, and it's still moderate risk, in fact they trimmed back the moderate risk. things in it just doesn't sound right to me,

It's all about the cap. The southern part of the MDT area and the SLGT surrounding are conditional on the cap breaking, as the dynamics are very much there.

[snoopj]

I think that's why it's still hatched towards the south. The "just in case" factor.

--snoopj

[Cyclenall]

There was a tornado warning for Frankfort Kentucky just about 45 minutes ago...if this is just the very start then this is going to be quite a week.

[NEWeatherguy]

This seems to have the look and feel of June 15-17, 1992. June 6 or 7 could very well be like what February 2, March 1 and May 4 could be.

I remember June 15-16, 1992. I still have taped TV weather forecasts and a few bulletins from Omaha from that date range. Definitely smells like a situation similar to that. Now the only question is the capping, which we had then.

[Windy]

Looks like the show is on tomorrow. The WRF's backing off on the cap a bit, bringing the 700mb temps down to a 12-14C, which is still a thermonuclear cap, but potentially breakable with the sheer amount of instability and forcing going on tomorrow. The South Dakota target seems less tasty now; I'm headed for Kearney, Nebraska tomorrow morning. I'm guessing that if moisture is going to be an issue (the WRF's been a little optimistic with the Tds), it might be less of an issue further south. The wind profiles and instability is nothing short of breathtaking in central Nebraska per the latest WRF run, if only something will break that damn cap.

The good news is that if the cap does pop in Nebraska (and I suspect it will), then the storms aren't likely to get all linear/MCS, at least not until very late. Tomorrow looks like it could be the real deal. Hopefully, for the sake of the population centers of Kearney and Grand Island, the supercells stay well north of I-80.

[NEWeatherguy]

The good news is that if the cap does pop in Nebraska (and I suspect it will), then the storms aren't likely to get all linear/MCS, at least not until very late. Tomorrow looks like it could be the real deal. Hopefully, for the sake of the population centers of Kearney and Grand Island, the supercells stay well north of I-80.

I have had to deal with that stupid linear/MCS pattern where the storms pretty much take blows at each other over moisture and the whole thing just dies off WAY too much. With this loaded-gun scnario, I don't think things are going to go linear until western Iowa (maybe even later).

Also, I have read that derecho/bow echo possibilities may also increase as the night wears on.

[CrazyC83]

Storms are quickly firing up in E Montana/E Wyoming/NW Nebraska/W Dakotas.

[Pebbles]

Looks like we prob will get smacked by a derecho tomorrow night as i'm in the Mod box (for anyone that tracks this stuff i'm 2 blocks south of where I 80 and 355 meet on radar).

There's a storm in SD that looks like it has 2 hooks on it?? Does anyone know if there is a live feed from a news station in SD on net? I know there is a spotter verified tornado on this one.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in and around the main risk area:

Iowa
Des Moines - Mostly cloudy, 86 (60)
Fort Dodge - Mostly cloudy, 84 (63)
Mason City - Partly cloudy, 72 (62)
Sioux City - Overcast, 88 (60)
Spencer - Mostly cloudy, 86 (57)

Kansas
Dodge City - Overcast, 88 (64)
Garden City - Partly cloudy, 90 (62)
Hays - Mostly cloudy, 88 (64)
Hutchison - Partly cloudy, 86 (60)
Salina - Mostly cloudy, 87 (59)

Minnesota
Bemidji - Overcast, 59 (52)
Brainerd - Mostly cloudy, 63 (53)
Duluth - Overcast, 53 (46)
Fergus Falls - Partly cloudy, 75 (59)
Mankato - Sunny, 72 (59)
Marshall - Mostly cloudy, 82 (61)
Minneapolis - Mostly cloudy, 66 (56)
Rochester - A few clouds, 65 (57)
Roseau - Overcast, 61 (57)
St. Cloud - Mostly cloudy, 65 (55)
Worthington - Mostly cloudy, 86 (61)

Montana
Billings - Overcast, 57 (52)
Glasgow - Mostly cloudy, 73 (57)
Glendive - A few clouds, 75 (61)
Miles City - Partly cloudy, 72 (55)

Nebraska
Ainsworth - Partly cloudy, 81 (61)
Grand Island - Mostly cloudy, 87 (61)
Lincoln - Mostly cloudy, 86 (61)
McCook - Mostly cloudy, 94 (40)
Norfolk - Mostly cloudy, 87 (60)
North Platte - Mostly cloudy, 90 (39)
Omaha - Mostly cloudy, 87 (60)
Scottsbluff - Mostly cloudy, 72 (43)

North Dakota
Bismarck - Partly cloudy, 75 (53)
Devils Lake - Overcast, 68 (57)
Dickinson - Partly cloudy, 74 (62)
Fargo - Mostly cloudy, 74 (58)
Grand Forks - Overcast, 69 (58)
Jamestown - Mostly cloudy, 71 (58)
Minot - Mostly cloudy, 71 (60)
Williston - Mostly cloudy, 76 (60)

South Dakota
Aberdeen - Partly cloudy, 81 (65)
Faith - Partly cloudy, 78 (63)
Huron - Partly cloudy, 85 (66)
Mitchell - Mostly cloudy, 88 (64)
Pierre - Sunny, 82 (66)
Pine Ridge - Mostly cloudy, 85 (45)
Rapid City - Light rain showers, 73 (62)
Sioux Falls - Mostly cloudy, 87 (62)
Watertown - Mostly cloudy, 82 (63)

Wyoming
Casper - A few clouds, 70 (26)
Cheyenne - A few clouds, 67 (36)
Gillette - Partly cloudy, 54 (50)
Sheridan - Thunderstorm, 54 (51)

Manitoba
Brandon - Light rain, 52 (48)
Portage La Prairie - Light rain showers, 59 (59)
Winnipeg - Light rain, 61 (57)

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we prob will get smacked by a derecho tomorrow night as i'm in the Mod box (for anyone that tracks this stuff i'm 2 blocks south of where I 80 and 355 meet on radar).

There's a storm in SD that looks like it has 2 hooks on it?? Does anyone know if there is a live feed from a news station in SD on net? I know there is a spotter verified tornado on this one.

I think spotters have indeed reported it.

[Pebbles]

http://www.keloland.com/netcast/ semi live feed

[CrazyC83]

Thanks for the link - we will be with them for a while as they cover all of South Dakota and parts of Minnesota and Iowa...well after it is supposed to becomes a derecho...

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming soon:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 062309Z - 070115Z

PROBABILITY OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL ND WILL INCREASE IN
THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR A FEW DMGG WIND
GUSTS...HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES...A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 980 MB LOW OVER SWRN SD WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN NEB. AGEOSTROPHIC SFC RESPONSE WAS
BEGINNING TO ACT ON THE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...WITH SATL SHOWING A SWD SURGE BEGINNING OVER NWRN ND AND
ERN MT. INFLECTION POINT SHOULD SETTLE SOMEWHERE OVER SWRN/SCNTRL
ND LATER THIS EVENING...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD INTO
NERN ND...LINKING UP WITH SRN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR MASS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

AIR MASS SE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH/S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS EVENING AS MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT HAS YET TO SPREAD OUT OF THE BLACK HILLS REGION...BUT WILL DO
SO GRADUALLY THIS EVENING...LIKELY SUPPORTING A NWD EXPANSION OF THE
SD TSTMS INTO ND.

AREA PROFILERS/VWPS WERE SHOWING A DECIDEDLY BACKING TROPOSPHERIC
WIND PROFILE AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM EDGES EWD. THUS...WHILE INITIAL
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MAY
BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH THREATS FOR TORNADOES...PROPENSITY WILL BE FOR
STORMS TO MERGE/EVOLVE INTO A LEWPY MCS BY LATER IN THE EVENING.
THENCE...THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SPORADIC DMGG WIND THREAT WITH ATTENDANT HAIL.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FORM WITHIN THE BROAD LLJ AXIS FARTHER
E...VCNTY THE E-W FRONT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE STORMS MAY
ALSO CONTAIN AT LEAST A HAIL THREAT. BUT...PRIMARY SVR RISKS SHOULD
EVOLVE OVER SCNTRL/SWRN ND...THEN SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 06/06/2007


ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46620400 47740282 48110009 47699845 46139832 45949831
45990396

[CrazyC83]

New MD - watch likely to be replaced in SD/MT...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN/ECNTRL MT...NWRN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 352...

VALID 062319Z - 062345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 352 CONTINUES.

PARTS OF WT352...MAINLY IN SD/MT...MAY REQUIRE A REPLACEMENT WW FOR
A TIME THIS EVENING.

LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE BLACK HILLS REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A LEWPY LINE OF STG-SVR
TSTMS. STRONGER SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY HAD MOVED INTO DOWNSTREAM
WT353 OVER SCNTRL SD.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WAS
ENTERING NERN MT...WITH QUITE A LARGE REAL ESTATE OF SERN/ECNTRL MT
INTO NWRN SD STILL RESIDING IN THE WARM/HUMID AIR. THUS...TSTMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A DMGG WIND PROBLEM AS THE MOVE NEWD.
ISOLD TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE PSBL WHERE ENELY NEAR-SFC FLOW VEERS
QUICKLY TO SWLY ABOVE.

..RACY.. 06/06/2007


ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

45250870 45450861 45480821 45510810 45650811 45890803
45920785 46050768 46050753 45950728 45890712 45910693
46080696 46240700 46380701 46450712 46480720 46490783
46870784 46840593 46840565 46710560 46600542 46610507
46660484 46720459 46670427 46660413 45910408 45960200
43660212 42940204 42980405 43480403 43460605 44580607
44530750 44740781 44890787 44990792 44970829 45160813
45240815

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
SDC075-070015-
/O.NEW.KABR.TO.W.0006.070606T2336Z-070607T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JONES COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 634 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF
OKATON...OR 19 MILES EAST OF KADOKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
OKATON AROUND 650 PM CDT...
CAPA AROUND 700 PM CDT...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO TAKE SHELTER NOW!

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
ABERDEEN.

LAT...LON 4395 10106 4387 10106 4381 10092 4400 10060
4413 10082 4417 10104

$$
ALBRECHT

[CrazyC83]

New watch out farther north and northwest:

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN MONTANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 550
PM UNTIL 100 AM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 160 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GARRISON NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 352. WATCH NUMBER 352 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
550 PM MDT. CONTINUE...WW 353...

DISCUSSION...EXISTING QUASI-LINEAR MCS OVER SE MT/WRN SD EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY NEWD THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING INVOF BACK-DOOR FRONT IN ERN MT...AND ALONG
INVERTED TROUGH IN CNTRL ND. COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL NE/E
FLOW...BACKED AT A CONSIDERABLE ANGLE TO MODERATE SLY MID/UPR LEVEL
WINDS...WILL MAINTAIN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION DESPITE QUASI-LINEAR LARGER SCALE STORM MODE. ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCSS LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH MAIN SVR THREATS THEN BEING WIND/HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...CORFIDI


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN MONTANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 550
PM UNTIL 100 AM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 160 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GARRISON NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 352. WATCH NUMBER 352 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
550 PM MDT. CONTINUE...WW 353...

DISCUSSION...EXISTING QUASI-LINEAR MCS OVER SE MT/WRN SD EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY NEWD THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING INVOF BACK-DOOR FRONT IN ERN MT...AND ALONG
INVERTED TROUGH IN CNTRL ND. COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL NE/E
FLOW...BACKED AT A CONSIDERABLE ANGLE TO MODERATE SLY MID/UPR LEVEL
WINDS...WILL MAINTAIN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION DESPITE QUASI-LINEAR LARGER SCALE STORM MODE. ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCSS LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH MAIN SVR THREATS THEN BEING WIND/HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...CORFIDI


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 062345
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

TORNADO WATCH 354 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MTC011-017-021-025-079-083-109-070700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0354.070606T2350Z-070607T0700Z/

MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARTER CUSTER DAWSON
FALLON PRAIRIE RICHLAND
WIBAUX


NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-070700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0354.070606T2350Z-070607T0700Z/

ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
BURLEIGH DICKEY DUNN
EMMONS FOSTER GOLDEN VALLEY
GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON OLIVER SHERIDAN
SIOUX SLOPE STARK
STUTSMAN WELLS


SDC019-063-093-105-070700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0354.070606T2350Z-070607T0700Z/

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUTTE HARDING MEADE
PERKINS


ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...BIS...GGW...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW4
WW 354 TORNADO MT ND SD 062350Z - 070700Z
AXIS..160 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60SSW Y22/LEMMON SD/ - 30WNW N60/GARRISON ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 140NM E/W /39W DPR - 40SW MOT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

REPLACES WW 352..MT NE SD WY

LAT...LON 45080591 47750547 47759858 45089936

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.


Watch 354 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

That may be the last Tornado Watch before we go into derecho mode...then we will likely start seeing the rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches.

[CrazyC83]

Current parameters:

CAPE - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... oops/mlcp/ - near 3500

Helicity - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... oops/srh3/ - highest to the east where the derecho is expected

[CrazyC83]

Nebraska is starting to explode. Seems like a squall line or a bow echo already taking shape - and there was nothing 30 minutes ago.

[Pebbles]

yeah that cap sure broke quick!

[CrazyC83]

yeah that cap sure broke quick!

Yes it sure did. In less than 30 minutes it went from clear blue skies to warned cells with baseball hail and 70 mph winds (although no tornadoes yet). Will those cells bow out or squall out, or will they go supercellular? That is the question.