Severe weather outbreak - June 6-8 - Plains to Northeast

[Pebbles]

Well with that dryline my guess it's going to do same thing as in SD which is be liner with that whole line downbursting at @ 70mph... there is a Tor warning on that but it's weak rotation. Would they even be able to tell if it was tornado or downburst damage anyways at this point is anyones guess.

[wjs3]

I'm not around this forum very often (I should be more, and maybe I will be tomorrow--I live in Chicago where it should be exciting tomorrow), but I have to compliment you all--excellent meso analysis. Very nice to read and follow!

Thanks!

WJS3

[CrazyC83]

New watch issued:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 65 MILES NORTH OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 353...WW 354...WW 355...

DISCUSSION...SQLN WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
NOW OVER N CNTRL SD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO WW AREA...WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. OTHERS
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO SRN PART OF WW FROM ACTIVITY NOW FORMING INVOF
DRY LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN N CNTRL/NE NEB. IN
ADDITION ...STORMS MAY FORM OVER NRN PART OF WW AS STRENGTHENING
LLJ ENHANCES WAA INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NE
OF SEASONABLY STRONG NRN SD SFC LOW...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD/FORCING
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING RCKYS UPR TROUGH...AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION...DESPITE LIKELY QUASI-LINEAR DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...CORFIDI


SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 65 MILES NORTH OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 353...WW 354...WW 355...

DISCUSSION...SQLN WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
NOW OVER N CNTRL SD EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO WW AREA...WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. OTHERS
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO SRN PART OF WW FROM ACTIVITY NOW FORMING INVOF
DRY LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN N CNTRL/NE NEB. IN
ADDITION ...STORMS MAY FORM OVER NRN PART OF WW AS STRENGTHENING
LLJ ENHANCES WAA INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NE
OF SEASONABLY STRONG NRN SD SFC LOW...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD/FORCING
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING RCKYS UPR TROUGH...AND DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION...DESPITE LIKELY QUASI-LINEAR DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...CORFIDI


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 070147
WOU6

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2007

TORNADO WATCH 356 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MNC005-011-023-027-029-041-051-057-073-087-107-111-113-119-121-
125-149-151-155-159-167-173-070900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0356.070607T0150Z-070607T0900Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BECKER BIG STONE CHIPPEWA
CLAY CLEARWATER DOUGLAS
GRANT HUBBARD LAC QUI PARLE
MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL
PENNINGTON POLK POPE
RED LAKE STEVENS SWIFT
TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN
YELLOW MEDICINE


NDC003-017-027-035-039-063-073-077-081-091-097-070900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0356.070607T0150Z-070607T0900Z/

ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARNES CASS EDDY
GRAND FORKS GRIGGS NELSON
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STEELE TRAILL


SDC013-025-029-037-039-051-057-091-109-115-070900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0356.070607T0150Z-070607T0900Z/

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWN CLARK CODINGTON
DAY DEUEL GRANT
HAMLIN MARSHALL ROBERTS
SPINK


ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...MPX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW6
WW 356 TORNADO MN ND SD 070150Z - 070900Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40SW ATY/WATERTOWN SD/ - 65N FAR/FARGO ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /61SSE ABR - 16ESE GFK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

LAT...LON 44509934 47849855 47849508 44509609

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.


Watch 356 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[Pebbles]

Well color me happy.. there's spotters on that storm reporting funnel clouds!

[Pebbles]

Color me even happier.. lookie what i just found! Well since I can't be in a chase vehicle (hubby would never allow this mama of 3 to do that!) I can a least pretend I am

http://www.severestudios.com/

[CrazyC83]

Nasty bow echo moving north into central North Dakota now. Another bow echo forming in Nebraska.

[Pebbles]

Hello High Risk!! I'm in well in mod risk area. Definately bringing in loose articles/bikes/toys from yard tomorrow. Nasty nasty stuff! Hang on tight... gonna be a bumpy ride!

------------------------------------

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...INCLUDING PARTS OF ERN
MN...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL WI...AND THE UPPER PEN OF MICHIGAN....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT...EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...DIGGING TO THE SOUTH OF
RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA
TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...NOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF THE
TWO SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS NEAR A DEEP
CYCLONE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL
/SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT ANOTHER IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE
BROADER SCALE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

...MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL NOSE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID
DAY...ALLOWING FOR HEATING OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IN WARM
SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE. SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO
CLIMB AT LEAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.

THOUGH DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS STRONG AS AREAS UNAFFECTED
BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF
A 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH
40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW...PLUS FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE...POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SEEMS HIGH. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ...AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
NOT AFFECTED BY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

FARTHER SOUTH...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION GENERALLY SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RAPID EVOLUTION OF A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH FRONTAL FORCING...IN STRONG FLOW/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION MORE QUICKLY THAN EASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. SOME OF THE
WIND GUSTS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.
AND...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT.

...OZARK PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SQUALL LINE MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT...AS
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SLOWLY WEAKENS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A RISK OF HAIL IN
STRONGER STORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
TENDENCY MAY BE FOR STORMS TO BE UNDERCUT OR FORM TO THE NORTH OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT...LIMITING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

[Pebbles]

ok one more spammage .. BUT this is AMUSING! check out the last line of this aviation discussion from our local NWS. HAHA haven't seen anything ever like this up here

------------------------------------------------------
.AVIATION...

1255 AM CDT

FOR 06Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN VERY GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
THRU TAF PERIOD...AND TIMING OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION LATER
TODAY.

00Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS...WITH 110 KT 250 HPA JET MAX NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
RCKYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
PROPAGATING ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTN...THEN ROTATING NORTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/NRN/WRN GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROF/DEEP SFC LOW LIFT INTO ONTARIO. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WARM
SECTOR OF SFC CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN STRONG SSWLY WIND FIELD THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA BEYOND 06Z END OF THIS FCST. FCST SNDGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATING
GUSTS POTENTIAL IN 35-40 KT RANGE GENERALLY FROM 200 DEG DIRECTION.

AS FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL/TIMING...UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KTOP...KSFG...KLIT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE CAPPING INVERSION IN 700-800
HPA LAYER ACROSS WARM SECTOR WITH KTOP AN IMPRESSIVE +19C AT 750
HPA. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM WRF MAINTAIN THIS CAP THROUGH THE
DAY...BEFORE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH CAN COOL MID LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY. WRF DVLPS LLVL CONVERGENCE
ALONG PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH/CONVERGENT ZONE FROM NWRN IL INTO WI BY
AROUND 21Z...AND TRYS TO DVLP CONVECTION AT THAT TIME...THOUGH
SUSPECT MOST SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO HOLD OFF A FEW
HOURS UNTIL STRONGER HGT FALLS ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF
CAP AND STRONGER LLVL FORCING AHEAD OF APPRCHG SFC FRONT. THUS HAVE
INDICATED SCT CB IN TAFS LATE AFTN KRFD...THOUGH HAVE HELD OFF TEMPO
FOR TRW UNTIL 01Z. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY AFTER SUNSET SHOW FOR CHI AREA
TERMINALS WITH SCT CB AFTR 02Z...TEMPO TRW 03-06Z. SVR CONVECTION A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY GIVEN 0-1KM SHEAR 20-30 KTS AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR 50-60 KTS...AND MLCAPES IN 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR TYPE STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH UNIDIRECTIONAL
NATURE OF WIND PROFILER WOULD SUGGEST EVOLUTION INTO SQUALL LINE
ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST INTO CHI. POTENTIALLY A CHALLENGING EVENING
FOR PILOTS...CONTROLLERS...PASSENGERS AND METEOROLOGISTS.

[CrazyC83]

If that High Risk moves east tomorrow, I am in it. Very rare event here.

Yesterday's bust could be the reason for brutality.

[CrazyC83]

High Risk shifted more to the south, and the parameters changed: it was 30 tornado/45 wind, now 15 tornado/60 wind. Suggesting more of a super-derecho as opposed to a major tornado outbreak.

[CrazyC83]

First watch of the day (PDS?) coming soon:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 AM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO...MUCH OF IA AND SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071411Z - 071515Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM SWRN AND CNTRL IA
AND NWRN MO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

THIS MORNING SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A
COLD FRONT NERN KS THROUGH SWRN IA. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PERSIST WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...MAINTAINING MID TO
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MORNING TOPEKA SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS...MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY. LARGE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY FROM 300-400 M2/S2 AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 06/07/2007


ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

39909519 40809518 44039447 44589265 43279090 40919220
39679389

[Pebbles]

Yes, and timing slightly earlier then I was expecting. My daughter normally has gymnastics from 6 to 9pm Central time. Seriously considering canceling that as it's a 25 mile drive down the highway. If this goes down the way it looks like it will just doesn't look safe to be on the roads coming home at that time.

Now I know there are another couple peeps in the risk area.. pop on and say hi!

[wx247]

Hi everyone... really think the SPC is downplaying the risk here in MO. We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised to see threat big here, too.

As far as the new watch...close call as to whether or not is PDS. I say no for now, but I have been wrong before!

[craptacular]

I'm close enough to the SPC bullseye to expect a "fun" afternoon and evening. Hopefully this will not be the day for my first severe weather spotter report. I remember when one of the nasty derechos from the early 90s did some damage in my then hometown.

[snoopj]

Hi everyone... really think the SPC is downplaying the risk here in MO. We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised to see threat big here, too.

As far as the new watch...close call as to whether or not is PDS. I say no for now, but I have been wrong before!

Too many factors. Still have at least one, maybe two, more Day 1 Outlooks before the action begins. They might find something for the next update and shift it. *shrug*

--snoopj

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the threat area:

Illinois
Bloomington - A few clouds, 80 (65)
Champaign - Partly cloudy, 81 (63)
Chicago-Midway - A few clouds, 80 (62)
Chicago-O'Hare - Partly cloudy, 78 (63)
Decatur - A few clouds, 81 (64)
Peoria - Sunny, 80 (64)
Rockford - A few clouds, 79 (63)
Springfield - A few clouds, 80 (64)

Indiana
Gary - Mostly cloudy, 80 (66)
Lafayette - A few clouds, 80 (60)
South Bend - A few clouds, 79 (60)

Iowa
Burlington - Mostly cloudy, 81 (66)
Cedar Rapids - A few clouds, 76 (65)
Davenport - A few clouds, 79 (64)
Des Moines - A few clouds, 79 (66)
Dubuque - A few clouds, 76 (64)
Mason City - Sunny, 76 (65)
Waterloo - A few clouds, 78 (65)

Michigan
Cadillac - Overcast, 72 (59)
Escanaba - Mostly cloudy, 63 (55)
Grand Rapids - Partly cloudy, 77 (59)
Isle Royale - Overcast, 54 (50)
Kalamazoo - Sunny, 76 (60)
Marquette - Overcast, 68 (57)
Muskegon - A few clouds, 78 (58)
St. Joseph - A few clouds, 79 (61)
Traverse City - Mostly cloudy, 77 (58)

Minnesota
Bemidji - Partly cloudy, 70 (61)
Brainerd - Partly cloudy, 73 (62)
Duluth - Partly cloudy, 58 (53)
Hibbing - Partly cloudy, 65 (60)
International Falls - Overcast, 58 (56)
Mankato - A few clouds, 77 (66)
Minneapolis - Overcast, 76 (63)
Rochester - Sunny, 75 (64)
St. Cloud - Partly cloudy, 75 (63)

Missouri
Jefferson City - Mostly cloudy, 82 (66)
Kirksville - Mostly cloudy, 76 (63)
St. Louis - Partly cloudy, 81 (66)

Wisconsin
Ashland - Partly cloudy, 74 (62)
Eau Claire - Mostly cloudy, 76 (63)
Green Bay - Partly cloudy, 75 (64)
Kenosha - Sunny, 79 (62)
La Crosse - Mostly cloudy, 76 (62)
Madison - A few clouds, 76 (62)
Milwaukee - A few clouds, 79 (63)
Rhinelander - Overcast, 69 (59)
Rice Lake - Mostly cloudy, 73 (64)
Wausau - Partly cloudy, 74 (61)

Ontario
Dryden - Light rain, 55 (55)
Geraldton - Light drizzle, 50 (47)
Marathon - Overcast, 59 (56)
Sault Ste. Marie - Partly cloudy, 58 (51)
Thunder Bay - Light rain showers, 48 (46)
Wawa - Overcast, 55 (52)

[CrazyC83]

Yes, and timing slightly earlier then I was expecting. My daughter normally has gymnastics from 6 to 9pm Central time. Seriously considering canceling that as it's a 25 mile drive down the highway. If this goes down the way it looks like it will just doesn't look safe to be on the roads coming home at that time.

Now I know there are another couple peeps in the risk area.. pop on and say hi!

There are quite a few in the HIGH area and more in the MDT area I believe. I think the HIGH may shift again, covering more ground north and east. Whether this turns out to be a tornado outbreak or derecho, it could be an extremely dangerous situation.

[CrazyC83]

One thing I am wondering: if the main threat is a super-derecho but some tornadoes are possible, would they issue a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch (for the super-derecho), a normal Tornado Watch (thinking the tornadoes override) or a PDS Tornado Watch (for the whole threat, even if tornadoes are not the main threat)?

[snoopj]

I have seen a few PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches before. I would think if the Tornado threat is low, but they have extremely high probability of excessive hail and wind, then a PDS Severe Thunderstorm watch would be the way to go, with a mention of the fact that tornadoes can form at any moment (just like standard Severe Thunderstorm watch verbiage).

--snoopj

[AnnularCane]

Current conditions in the threat area:

Illinois
Bloomington - A few clouds, 80 (65)
Champaign - Partly cloudy, 81 (63)
Chicago-Midway - A few clouds, 80 (62)
Chicago-O'Hare - Partly cloudy, 78 (63)
Decatur - A few clouds, 81 (64)
Peoria - Sunny, 80 (64)
Rockford - A few clouds, 79 (63)
Springfield - A few clouds, 80 (64)

Indiana
Gary - Mostly cloudy, 80 (66)
Lafayette - A few clouds, 80 (60)
South Bend - A few clouds, 79 (60)

Iowa
Burlington - Mostly cloudy, 81 (66)
Cedar Rapids - A few clouds, 76 (65)
Davenport - A few clouds, 79 (64)
Des Moines - A few clouds, 79 (66)
Dubuque - A few clouds, 76 (64)
Mason City - Sunny, 76 (65)
Waterloo - A few clouds, 78 (65)

Michigan
Cadillac - Overcast, 72 (59)
Escanaba - Mostly cloudy, 63 (55)
Grand Rapids - Partly cloudy, 77 (59)
Isle Royale - Overcast, 54 (50)
Kalamazoo - Sunny, 76 (60)
Marquette - Overcast, 68 (57)
Muskegon - A few clouds, 78 (58)
St. Joseph - A few clouds, 79 (61)
Traverse City - Mostly cloudy, 77 (58)

Minnesota
Bemidji - Partly cloudy, 70 (61)
Brainerd - Partly cloudy, 73 (62)
Duluth - Partly cloudy, 58 (53)
Hibbing - Partly cloudy, 65 (60)
International Falls - Overcast, 58 (56)
Mankato - A few clouds, 77 (66)
Minneapolis - Overcast, 76 (63)
Rochester - Sunny, 75 (64)
St. Cloud - Partly cloudy, 75 (63)

Missouri
Jefferson City - Mostly cloudy, 82 (66)
Kirksville - Mostly cloudy, 76 (63)
St. Louis - Partly cloudy, 81 (66)

Wisconsin
Ashland - Partly cloudy, 74 (62)
Eau Claire - Mostly cloudy, 76 (63)
Green Bay - Partly cloudy, 75 (64)
Kenosha - Sunny, 79 (62)
La Crosse - Mostly cloudy, 76 (62)
Madison - A few clouds, 76 (62)
Milwaukee - A few clouds, 79 (63)
Rhinelander - Overcast, 69 (59)
Rice Lake - Mostly cloudy, 73 (64)
Wausau - Partly cloudy, 74 (61)

Ontario
Dryden - Light rain, 55 (55)
Geraldton - Light drizzle, 50 (47)
Marathon - Overcast, 59 (56)
Sault Ste. Marie - Partly cloudy, 58 (51)
Thunder Bay - Light rain showers, 48 (46)
Wawa - Overcast, 55 (52)

Looks like a lot of sunny or mostly sunny areas. Not good.