Akash and Gonu thread

[artist]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070607/ap_ ... oYZbsLewgF
23 dead now according to yahoo news.

[Derek Ortt]

link now says 28 dead and 26 missing

[Derek Ortt]

has anyone heard anything from the eastern parts of Oman where Gonu made landfall yet? So far, all I have seen is info from Muscat and even Iran

[belkin603]

Gonu could be evidence of global warming. We will probably continue to see more dangerous hurricanes in unexpected areas as water temps warm.

[Chacor]

Gonu could be evidence of global warming. We will probably continue to see more dangerous hurricanes in unexpected areas as water temps warm.

Uhm... that's totally off base here. The SSTs in this area have ALWAYS been warm due to the desert. It's the land and dry air that rips storms apart here, not cold SSTs. This has nothing to do with global warming, it's just the storm that managed to overcome the dry air and wind shear - plenty of storms do that.

[curtadams]

has anyone heard anything from the eastern parts of Oman where Gonu made landfall yet? So far, all I have seen is info from Muscat and even Iran

During the storm, there was a report of one man drowning. I think all the roads are washed out somewhat west of Muscat and that's where the info ends.

There's been no news since the storm until (maybe) today. A poster to an Omani forum says local TV says no casualties in Sur: http://omanforum.com/fusionbb/showtopic ... 514/tp/20/ Still nothing on the very tip AFAIK.

Edit: Sur badly hit, LNG port there not operating http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4&section ... m=6&y=2007

[Typhoon Hunter]

No news from Zajko who posted on here before saying he was on his way to Sur.

Zajko, hope you're alright mate and let us know how you got on when you're able to get online!

[Chacor]

Toll up, 35 dead 30 missing. http://www.cnn.com/2007/WEATHER/06/08/cyclone.ap/

[pegasus2]

Gonu could be evidence of global warming. We will probably continue to see more dangerous hurricanes in unexpected areas as water temps warm.

Uhm... that's totally off base here. The SSTs in this area have ALWAYS been warm due to the desert. It's the land and dry air that rips storms apart here, not cold SSTs. This has nothing to do with global warming, it's just the storm that managed to overcome the dry air and wind shear - plenty of storms do that.

It could easily be Global Warming. The climate is changing rapidly on a global scale which could alter the moisture content in the air or displace the shear in a region long enough to allow hurricanes to form where they don't usually form. In this case it looks like the Indian Monsoon has been displaced. We have seen this elsewhere too. Remember the Brazil storm?

[Chacor]

Spam not welcome.

[superg77]

Wow! Hope this does not become more common around the Strait of Hormuz because of global warming. Here is an interesting article that asks will global warming lead to higher oil prices and scarcer gasoline?

[KWT]

pegasus2, this storm was probably just a fluke event, sure if we start having more major cyclones roll up again that reigon in the nxt 5-10 years then you may have a point but just like Catrina if the set-ups come together right these systems can exist in surprising places. One system on its own really means jack all in terms of global warming.
As others have said the SST's are very high in that reigon, it only was going to take a random chance of the atmopshere slackening enough for a cyclone like Gonu to form. Still I suppose we may have to watch but lets not jup the gun, there hasn't been another system like Catrina in the S.Atlantic since 04 and I bet there won't be another for a while yet in this region as well.

(ps, by the way how far back does decent satellite go in this part of the world, given how fast gonu died away it wouldn't be too hard to imagine a few biggie's being missed in the past.)

[Aslkahuna]

Global satellite coverage started in 1966 with ESSA2 and ESSA3 Polar Orbit satellites. ESSA 2 was an APT satellite where local ground stations could receive real time data. ESSA3 was a recording satellite that did data dumps twice a day with the imagery made into Global mosaics of IR and Visual imagery. Prior to 1966, the only regions with anywhere near adequate records was WPAC and the Atlantic. For example, we had absolutely no clue about the level of activity in EPAC until 1966.

Steve

[x-y-no]

Individual events simply can't be attributed to global warming or any other trend for that matter. Let's try to keep this thread on topic, please.

[Zajko]

Thanks for the good wishes, Typhoon Hunter - Gonu has been one wild ride out here in Oman. Didn't get as far as Sur in the end - roads starting getting just a little wet (flash floods etc) around Ibra (half way between Muscat and Sur, a little inland) where we got sensible and stopped. Back in Muscat finally, luckily everyone I know seems well but not all were so lucky.

Most of the rain hit the Eastern (coastal) side of the Hajar mountains as I understand, and as a couple of people pointed out earlier, the towns along that coastline are mostly built in or alongside wadis (riverbeds) in small coves between the mountains and the sea and are very vulnerable. I haven't heard anything from towns such as Qurayat or Yitti but they could be in a bad way right now: they're certainly not accessible by road, we're just waiting and hoping those down there are OK.

[dizzyfish]

Glad to hear you are o.k. Zajko! Please keep us updated with info as it becomes available to you.

[x-y-no]

Thanks for keeping us posted, Zajko. Glad you're OK.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Zajko, great to hear you're well and managed to stay safe. I really hope those communities along the coast didn't get hit too badly. Thanks for your updates, it makes such a difference having someone on location passing on information first hand!

[Ptarmigan]

I don't see how Global Warming is even a factor. I am sure tropical cyclones, like Gonu have hit that area before. That area where Gonu form has some of the warmest SSTs in the world. It would be a very favorable place, but because of dry air from Southwest Asia puts a lid on them.

[Ptarmigan]

Thanks for the good wishes, Typhoon Hunter - Gonu has been one wild ride out here in Oman. Didn't get as far as Sur in the end - roads starting getting just a little wet (flash floods etc) around Ibra (half way between Muscat and Sur, a little inland) where we got sensible and stopped. Back in Muscat finally, luckily everyone I know seems well but not all were so lucky.

Most of the rain hit the Eastern (coastal) side of the Hajar mountains as I understand, and as a couple of people pointed out earlier, the towns along that coastline are mostly built in or alongside wadis (riverbeds) in small coves between the mountains and the sea and are very vulnerable. I haven't heard anything from towns such as Qurayat or Yitti but they could be in a bad way right now: they're certainly not accessible by road, we're just waiting and hoping those down there are OK.

Welcome to Storm2K. Good to hear that you're okay. Must be scary for you guys to be hit by a tropical cyclone.