Severe weather outbreak - June 6-8 - Plains to Northeast

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snoopj
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#81 Postby snoopj » Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:46 pm

Yeah. Got the same thing around here. Looks like the dryline will become more active this afternoon. NWS KC/Pleasant Hill still keeps saying Wind event.

--snoopj
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#82 Postby Pebbles » Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:47 pm

Info for northern IL/NW IN with nice graphical of possible timing

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 9&source=0

As you can see from the picture above...the preliminary estimates on the timing of these storms is as follows:
Rockford...Oregon and Dixon between 7 and 10 pm
Chicago...Waukegan...Aurora...Joliet...Ottawa and Pontiac between 9 pm and midnight.
Valpariaso...Gary...Rensselaer...Kankakee and Watseka between 11 pm and 2 am.

These storms are being driven by an unusually strong storm system across the northern Plains. This storm system is winter-like in terms of its wind energy...with winds over 100 mph in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This wind energy combined with abundant moisture streaming north ahead of a cold front and high instability prompted by very warm air near the ground and colder air aloft will set the stage for explosive thunderstorms development.
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#83 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:49 pm

snoopj wrote:Yeah. Got the same thing around here. Looks like the dryline will become more active this afternoon. NWS KC/Pleasant Hill still keeps saying Wind event.

--snoopj


Interesting, the NOAA cnv outlooks and the weather radio is saying that significant severe weather is possible tonight including strong tornadoes.
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#84 Postby snoopj » Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:53 pm

Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Pleasant Hill from 1:04pm today:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. A
NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A DRY LINE
WHICH EXTENDS FROM DES MOINES TO NEAR BETHANY TO JUST EAST OF ST
JOSEPH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE FROM SURFACE HEATING. VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS EXTENDING WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SINCE THE WIND FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS SO HIGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY.


--snoopj
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#85 Postby snoopj » Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:59 pm

New Tornado Watch issued:

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OLATHE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STEADILY INCREASINGLY ALONG BOUNDARY
FROM NCENTRAL MO/IA BORDER TO E CENTRAL KS. WITH THE AIRMASS NOW
VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED...ALONG WITH 50-60KT OF
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LINE
THRU THE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
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#86 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 07, 2007 2:02 pm

Still the question mark is whether or not this will bow out into a derecho or remain supercellular...
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#87 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Jun 07, 2007 2:09 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Still the question mark is whether or not this will bow out into a derecho or remain supercellular...
I think that depends on where along the line you are. I think the further south you are the longer things will remain supercellular but a large scale derecho seems likely early morning tomorrow for my area.
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#88 Postby Pebbles » Thu Jun 07, 2007 2:38 pm

Update on neighbors tree damage. It's being cut up as we speak at the whopping cost of 2,000 dollars. Question: Will homeowners insurance cover this sort of thing even if it doesn't hit the houses?

side note: i'm absolutely amazed the wind knocked down this tree.. it was HUGE oak tree. Very big but wouldn't say it was old and pretty healthy and doesn't look like it was damaged in any way to cause it split and topple like that.

A gliding swing we had went flying across the yard too. If this much is flying around and tree's falling now.. i'm getting slightly nervous on what later tonight is going to be like when the real action gets here.
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#89 Postby craptacular » Thu Jun 07, 2007 2:46 pm

PDS Tornado Watch for me ... not unexpected:
WW0360

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN PORTION OF UPPER MICHIGAN
EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 240 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF MARQUETTE
MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOLINE ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW 359...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED FROM WRN WI TO ERN IA. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE ACROSS WATCH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
INCREASING THREAT OF LONG LIVED DAMAGING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24055.


...HALES
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#90 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:27 pm

Long night ahead it looks like...
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#91 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:43 pm

I am expecting a watch for my area by 5:30 at the latest probably between now and 4:30
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#92 Postby Pebbles » Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:46 pm

chicago radar just went offline.. NOOOOOO *pulls hair out*

All I've got to say is they better get that sucker back up! :firedevil:
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#93 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 07, 2007 3:49 pm

Pebbles wrote:chicago radar just went offline.. NOOOOOO *pulls hair out*

All I've got to say is they better get that sucker back up! :firedevil:


That is scary. That could be life and death if a major tornado or if 100+ mph winds are coming...
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#94 Postby SamSagnella » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:02 pm

No surprise, but a new tornado watch extends now from NErn OK down to Gainesville, TX.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 361
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
358 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

TXC097-237-337-497-503-080500-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.A.0361.070607T2100Z-070608T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 361 IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

COOKE JACK MONTAGUE
WISE YOUNG

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...BRIDGEPORT...DECATUR...
GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...JACKSBORO...NOCONA AND OLNEY.

$$

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 361
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
357 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

OKC017-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-063-067-069-071-073-081-083-
085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137-TXC009-077-485-080500-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.A.0361.070607T2100Z-070608T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 361 IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 26 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY
KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

PONTOTOC SEMINOLE

IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

KAY NOBLE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON
MARSHALL

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

CARTER GARVIN JEFFERSON
LOVE MURRAY STEPHENS

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

COMANCHE COTTON

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN TEXAS

ARCHER CLAY WICHITA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADA...ARCHER CITY...ARDMORE...
CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...COALGATE...DUNCAN...EL RENO...GUTHRIE...
HENRIETTA...HOLDENVILLE...KINGFISHER...LAWTON...MADILL...
MARIETTA...MOORE...MUSTANG...NORMAN...OKLAHOMA CITY...
PAULS VALLEY...PERRY...PONCA CITY...PURCELL...SEMINOLE...
SHAWNEE...STILLWATER...SULPHUR...TISHOMINGO...WALTERS...WAURIKA...
WICHITA FALLS AND YUKON.

$$


WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 361
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

OKC035-037-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-117-121-131-143-145-147-
080500-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.A.0361.070607T2100Z-070608T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 361 IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CRAIG CREEK MAYES
NOWATA OKMULGEE OSAGE
PAWNEE ROGERS TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

MCINTOSH PITTSBURG

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...
CLAREMORE...EUFAULA...MCALESTER...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...TULSA...
VINITA AND WAGONER.

$$
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#95 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:04 pm

We are now under a Tornado Watch.
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#96 Postby SamSagnella » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:09 pm

Image
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#97 Postby Pebbles » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:11 pm

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#98 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:17 pm

4 tornado reports so far. 2 in Wisconsin and 2 in Iowa.
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#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:25 pm

Watches now from far northern Ontario to Texas.
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#100 Postby Pebbles » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:33 pm

http://blogs.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/

Here's a link to the WGN weather blog. The second blog has pictures/story of a tree that blew over onto two houses in Oak Park (also a suburb of Chicago) today. Guess there are trees going down all over!
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