Severe weather outbreak - June 6-8 - Plains to Northeast

[CrazyC83]

Storms seem to be redeveloping over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND EASTERN OK...NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 361...

VALID 080008Z - 080215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 361 CONTINUES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU CONTINUE TO
GROW AND DISSIPATE ON THE SLOWLY RETREATING DRYLINE...CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WATCH. THE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
4500 J/KG...BUT CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...THOUGH SOME SURFACE
STATIONS BRIEFLY BACK TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TRANSIENT
MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. THOUGH THE CAP
APPEARS TO BE ERODED ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON THE 00Z OUN
SOUNDING...DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO FORM IN THIS
WEAK CONVERGENCE ENVIRONMENT. IF A STORM DOES FORM ...IT WILL
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
#1046 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

..LEVIT.. 06/08/2007


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

36959721 36979607 36919508 36399536 35179599 34029658
33169701 33099770 33119846 33179907 34149860 35179809
36289754 36969722

Definitely the cap is holding in the southern Plains, but if it bursts, the dam will flood in a hurry...

[Pebbles]

*packs her bags and throws a big sloppy wet over ripe grapefruit at all the models*

[wx247]

Don't call off the dogs yet folks... give it a couple of more hours first.

[Pebbles]

Don't call off the dogs yet folks... give it a couple of more hours first.

ok... ok.. i'll try.. but all my neighbors are going to think i'm absolutely LOONEY if this continues! My reputations at stake here LOL

[craptacular]

I don't think Chicago is out of the mix ... where I am, though (a little west of Madison), this was a whole lotta nothin'. Madison proper and areas south towards Janesville still have stuff to deal with, but I don't think we'll see a drop of rain, a bolt of lightning, or a clap of thunder. I'm so glad we moved all our outdoor stuff inside.

[wx247]

Cell trying to go over Osage County in NE Ok... let's see if this holds over the next few radar images.

[CrazyC83]

Finally, signs of a weakening cap in the south. Cell forming in a hurry near Wichita Falls, Texas.

[CrazyC83]

Don't call off the dogs yet folks... give it a couple of more hours first.

ok... ok.. i'll try.. but all my neighbors are going to think i'm absolutely LOONEY if this continues! My reputations at stake here LOL

It all depends on the cap. If it bursts, everything will blow up in an instant.

[Pebbles]

I don't think Chicago is out of the mix ... where I am, though (a little west of Madison), this was a whole lotta nothin'. Madison proper and areas south towards Janesville still have stuff to deal with, but I don't think we'll see a drop of rain, a bolt of lightning, or a clap of thunder. I'm so glad we moved all our outdoor stuff inside.

HAHA you know.. I took one look at your name and just laughed and laughed.. thanks for the cheer up My reputations on the line because i went to EVERYONE and told them to move their stuff in! And my hubby works as a outbound superviser for a trucking company so was all over him to keep an eye out for his workers tonight too. They are all gonna think I'm a nutcake... not to mention the lady at ACE hardware this morning. *snorts*

[6SpeedTA95]

Don't call off the dogs yet folks... give it a couple of more hours first.

ok... ok.. i'll try.. but all my neighbors are going to think i'm absolutely LOONEY if this continues! My reputations at stake here LOL

It all depends on the cap. If it bursts, everything will blow up in an instant.

The cap is pretty much gone for all of Oklahoma and further south. The reason we're not seeing storms is the weak convergence along the dryline. The dryline is retreating back west slowly and the atmosphere is fairly warm aloft, that plus weak convergence along the dryline is severely limiting convection.

As the midlevels cool and the front approaches convergence should increase.

I can look to my north and to my west and with each time I look the clouds seem to look a little more intent on taking care of business. There's a small shower just to my NW right now that popped up fairly quick. There's also another building to my SW. But if you want to see any action we need some stronger convergence.

[CrazyC83]

Down to a MDT risk as the transition to an MCS threat is expected.

[6SpeedTA95]

Down to a MDT risk as the transition to an MCS threat is expected.

Noaa has repeatedly botched their forcasts for Ok this year. Back down to a slgt risk here.

[CrazyC83]

Down to a MDT risk as the transition to an MCS threat is expected.

Noaa has repeatedly botched their forcasts for Ok this year. Back down to a slgt risk here.

From Illinois south it all busted for the most part. While maybe not HIGH, a MDT would have verified in Wisconsin, keeping it from being a total bust.

I personally think of a total bust as when the activity didn't even verify the next level down (i.e. a HIGH when only a SLGT would verify in that area, or a MDT when only isolated activity occured, or a SLGT that turned out with no severe at all).

[6SpeedTA95]

Down to a MDT risk as the transition to an MCS threat is expected.

Noaa has repeatedly botched their forcasts for Ok this year. Back down to a slgt risk here.

From Illinois south it all busted for the most part. While maybe not HIGH, a MDT would have verified in Wisconsin, keeping it from being a total bust.

I personally think of a total bust as when the activity didn't even verify the next level down (i.e. a HIGH when only a SLGT would verify in that area, or a MDT when only isolated activity occured, or a SLGT that turned out with no severe at all).

I agree.

[Pebbles]

I'm still debating if it's worth a couple more hours of my life to watch this anymore... *points to the measly attempt at a line of storms in northwest IL on radar*

[Category 5]

Any information (Photos, Damage, ETC) on those wisconsin tornadoes earlier?

[CrazyC83]

Any information (Photos, Damage, ETC) on those wisconsin tornadoes earlier?

Not yet. From the words it seems they have been described with, the strongest I am guessing is an EF3.

[Pebbles]

Ok they must be seeing something I'm not.. looks like new watch is going up soon...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST WI/WESTERN LOWER MI/NORTHWEST
INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 080248Z - 080415Z

A NEW/REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MI/NORTHWEST
INDIANA.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EASTWARD/INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WI/NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/LOWER MI INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE PLUME EXTENDING INTO
LOWER MI AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM DRYLINE...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND AN INCREASING 50+ LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
WILL SUPPORT AN EASTWARD EXPANSION/INCREASING COVERAGE OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT PRIMARY THREATS
OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH...IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2.

[simplykristi]

I live in the south part of metro KC. We got two drops of rain. North and west of here was flooding rains.