Severe weather outbreak - June 6-8 - Plains to Northeast

[craptacular]

Ok they must be seeing something I'm not.. looks like new watch is going up soon...

Well, the NWS radar does seem to show that the line of storms from north of Milwaukee through Rockford to the Quad Cities is strengthening.

In response to your earlier post, my name seems to be the best way to describe what happened here today.

[wjs3]

Pebbles--sure you saw it, biut the SPC has just issued a tornado watch for Chicagoland and east. The write up hasn;t gone online yet.

WJS3

[Siberian Express]

I'm still debating if it's worth a couple more hours of my life to watch this anymore... *points to the measly attempt at a line of storms in northwest IL on radar*

Sometimes, if you "wishcast" hard enough....it'll come true. You may get what you've been looking for.

[6SpeedTA95]

We just had a tornado warning for my area, went right over my inlaws.

[Pebbles]

I'm still debating if it's worth a couple more hours of my life to watch this anymore... *points to the measly attempt at a line of storms in northwest IL on radar*

Sometimes, if you "wishcast" hard enough....it'll come true. You may get what you've been looking for.

Ahh see.. now I gave the wrong impression! Heaven knows I don't want tornadoes.. or anything super bad.. a little rain though would be nice *holds fingers very close together* and whatcha know things are developing a little bit. I guess when your expecting the weather to go bananas and then nothing happens your kind of almost let down. Personally I would prefer nothing over seriously bad anyday!

[sully_county]

Ontario Severe Weather Forecasting is owned and operated by a private company not associated with Environment Canada or the Storm Prediction Center.



Day 2
ISSUED BY ONTARIO SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING
THU JUN 7 2007 AT 500 PM EDT
RISK IS FOR FRI JUN 8 2007

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONTARIO...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...THE BOW ECHO/DERECHO EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SAME SYSTEM SHOULD REFIRE AMIDST THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK REMAINS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...WHICH COULD REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH-END SEVERE WINDS. NONETHELESS...A MODERATE RISK WAS INTRODUCED AS SUPERCELLS COULD FORM ON THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT WITH TORNADOES - POSSIBLY A STRONG ONE OR TWO - AND LARGE HAIL BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE FORMS.

FORECASTER: HOS

http://www.scostorms.com

[CrazyC83]

Tomorrow should be interesting. I wonder if the "hype" factor will enhance activity as the less hyped days tend to turn into the big events (like March 28 for instance)?

[Pebbles]

It's minutes away from midnight.. 81 degrees with a 68 dewpoint. It feels like something should happen...

as for tomorrow... never know!

[wx247]

I am under a Warning!!! 70 mph winds. :o

[HarlequinBoy]

Stay safe!

*hopes it rains tomorrow*

[Pebbles]

I've officially belong in the looney bin now!

[WindRunner]

Well, looks like I didn't miss anything overly exciting yesterday . . . another Day 3 mdt that doesn't live up to the hype, what a surprise . . .

[CrazyC83]

Well, looks like I didn't miss anything overly exciting yesterday . . . another Day 3 mdt that doesn't live up to the hype, what a surprise . . .

Throwing a MDT on day 3 is very risky...it has been done five times and NONE of them resulted in a major outbreak (they include two total busts, the first one on June 10, 2005 and on Wednesday)

[CrazyC83]

They have put up a MDT for today across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes...derecho the main threat...

SPC AC 081624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT SERN
INDIANA...NRN KY AND NWRN WV NWD THRU OH...WRN PA AND WRN NY
STATE....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SWRN TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NNEWD OVER HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
N CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SWD ACROSS NWRN INDIANA AND SERN MO INTO NERN
TX WWD JUST N OF THE TX BIG BEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY THRU EARLY TONIGHT
PRODUCING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THRU THESE REGIONS.

...SERN IND/NRN KY NEWD THRU OH INTO WRN NY AND THE WRN HALF OF
PA...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THRU UPR MI/WI AT THIS TIME AND
SHOULD BE INTO WRN LOWER MI AND NWRN INDIANA BY EARLY THIS AFTN.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEUTRALLY/SLGTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT EXTENDS SSEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO INTO NWRN/WRN PA BY 09/00Z. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF 70-80 KT AND 100-110 KT RESPECTIVELY PLACING REGION IN
FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWS A SWLY FLOW OF
40-45 KT AT LOW LEVELS FROM AR INTO WRN PA WHICH IS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER NWRN OH INTO NWRN KY
ALREADY THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING THRU EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO NRN KY AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ANALYSIS OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND NAM-KF SHOWS SBCAPE BETWEEN
2000-3000 J/KG INTO NERN OH/WRN PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS...
EXPECT MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...AREAS FROM WRN TN WSWWD INTO CENTRAL AND SWRN TX...

AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE SE AND S OF THE SLOW MOVING PORTION
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN AR SWWD INTO W CENTRAL TX.
MLCAPE IS AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO EAST CENTRAL
TX...UP TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SRN TX. SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SWD INTO VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..MCCARTHY/GUYER.. 06/08/2007

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1702Z (1:02PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Winds to 80 mph possibly reported:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

OHC153-081945-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-070608T1945Z/
SUMMIT OH-
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR SUMMIT COUNTY...

AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR AKRON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING
TOWARD DOWNTOWN AKRON...TAKE SHELTER NOW FROM THIS STORM!

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CUYAHOGA FALLS...BOSTON HEIGHTS...PORTAGE LAKES...HUDSON...SILVER
LAKE...STOW...MUNROE FALLS...TALLMADGE...LAKEMORE...GREEN AND
MOGADORE

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4093 8163 4127 8167 4128 8146 4127 8138
4099 8138 4098 8141 4091 8141

$$

MRD

[CrazyC83]

First two tornado warnings - Portage and Swift Counties, Ohio

[Cyclenall]

Ontairo has been hit very hard with storms today and tornado warnings and funnels have been spotted. The squall lines that have been forming this afternoon have been amazing.

[Category 5]

Yesterdays tornado near White Lake Wisconsin (Langlade County) has been ranked EF3

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow?! There were 124mph wind gusts in Niagra and Erie counties earlier?

From the SPC:

Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2144 124 BARKER NIAGARA NY 4333 7855 (BUF)
2138 124 HAMBURG ERIE NY 4272 7883 (BUF)

That's amazing!

[Category 5]

Dang, I hope they weaken before they get here later on.