Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[AnnularCane]

BB, I think you're starting to make ME sense Chantal too. Not quite so soon though...I'm still thinking July, maybe early July. It will be interesting to see what happens though. I'm looking at that wave over the islands...could that be it? Or is it too far away?

[KWT]

I agree that the Caribbean looks the best right now..but I think we may actually see something before the 16th. The wave in the eastern Caribbean should be to the western Caribbean around the 11th-13th, and I think something could easily try to form in that vicinity as early as the 13th/14th. It will be interesting to watch.

Yeah I'm waching for that as well, given the heat content in the W.Caribbean and also the shear is forecasted to start easing just a little by that time I can see something trying to develop and for an early season system it would be in a prime place as many early season systems have formed in that region. If it forms tohugh it'll be in the Yucatan Channel rather the BOC though both could support a tropical cyclone right now. If the forecast is to come off then the wave in the eastern Caribbean will be the trigger IMO.

On a longer term I sense either Chantel or Dean coming from the wave leaving Africa right now, though not anytime soon but I think once it reaches the Caribbean it'll have a shot, esp as the models are foreecastin the jet to be north of the Caribbean by then and the heat content is high. Timeframe would probably be the 19-25th, wlel heck that would be my prediction anyway!

[Berwick Bay]

Storms firing near W Tip of Cuba. The Upper Level Low after exiting the Fl Penninsula has pretty much enveloped all of Western Cuba. I know that these ULL Storms are enhanced by the daytime heating over land (thus what we are seeing) and that they will likely die overnight (like last night). BUT these are thunderstorms, AND if the ULL takes the more westerly route (as I believe it will) then we may soon (MON??) begin to look for thunderstorms along the Northern Yucutan Penninsula. We'll see.

[NDG]

Not that I like to crush anybody's thinking, but if I were you I would be focusing on the NW Caribbean and or SE GOM for your forecasted timing for development instead of the W central GOM.

[Berwick Bay]

You won't "crush my thinking". I see the storms in the Carribean. Perhaps they will move NNW, but perhaps not. I know its only a small beginning, but now thunderstorms are beginning to fire not only near the tip of Cuba, but over the Yucutan Penninsula itself. This ULL looks to extend into the Yucutan Channel and bring more storms right near the northern Yucutan Coast. This might sound funny, but I still have a lot of confidence in my forecast for development in the West-Central Gulf late next week (Wed-Sat). I can't really get on the SW Carribean "bandwagon" at this time. These storms have not yet shown the persistence, that part of the Carribean is notorious for storms-but not a whole lot of development.

[Stormcenter]

Please let me remind everyone today is June 9th and not Aug. or Sept. 9th. I would not hold my breath
expecting anything to develop in the GOM or anywhere else for the reminder of June. It is still early
in the season.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The shear in the eastern GOM is lightening up big time:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Berwick Bay]

Gentleman, I don't see how I can say this any clearer now. I strongly believe that we will see tropical cyclone formation in the West Central Gulf next week. The Carribean System is a no go. I'm sorry to have to tell you that. Look at recent WV Loops. Do you know what weakening it? That expansive ULL in the Yucutan Channel. Now the Atlantic System has a chance (but gentleman, not much of one). I know it looks good, but its more mid-level, water temps are not quite there yet either. Now PLEASE look at tonight's loop of the Gulf. Conditions across the Gulf are DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
The ULL will bring storms across the Yucutan Channel and heavy storms across the Yucutan Penninsula tomorrow( you can book it.) Look at the storms powering down into the central Gulf from Miss. and La., its thundering here as I write this. Much moisture is being added to the Central Gulf. The GOM is becoming a hotbed for development. I know the last couple of days have made chance look weak. But I think that things really are coming together now for development in the West Central Gulf at 24N and 92 W between June 13th and June 16th (Wed-Sat of next week).

[skysummit]

BB...maybe you can edit your original post and add your coordinates of 24N and 92W to the title

[Berwick Bay]

Forgot to post the WV Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[sevenleft]

Maybe you can just maintain this thread the whole hurricane season, and keep changing the time and location of formation till you get it right? You'll be a hero.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe you can just maintain this thread the whole hurricane season, and keep changing the time and location of formation till you get it right? You'll be a hero.

[Praxus]

Storms firing near W Tip of Cuba.

Hmm looks like a circulation trying to get going there

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Duddy]

Gentleman, I don't see how I can say this any clearer now. I strongly believe that we will see tropical cyclone formation in the West Central Gulf next week. The Carribean System is a no go. I'm sorry to have to tell you that. Look at recent WV Loops. Do you know what weakening it? That expansive ULL in the Yucutan Channel. Now the Atlantic System has a chance (but gentleman, not much of one). I know it looks good, but its more mid-level, water temps are not quite there yet either. Now PLEASE look at tonight's loop of the Gulf. Conditions across the Gulf are DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
The ULL will bring storms across the Yucutan Channel and heavy storms across the Yucutan Penninsula tomorrow( you can book it.) Look at the storms powering down into the central Gulf from Miss. and La., its thundering here as I write this. Much moisture is being added to the Central Gulf. The GOM is becoming a hotbed for development. I know the last couple of days have made chance look weak. But I think that things really are coming together now for development in the West Central Gulf at 24N and 92 W between June 13th and June 16th (Wed-Sat of next week).

Do you happen to know what area of the Gulf coast would be in the target of this future storm?

[Berwick Bay]

The storm must materialize before I or anyone else can get into that. I do have some ideas expressed very generally in a couple of earlier posts(not being specific at all). You might want to check 'em out. One is called "The Maiden" and the other is called "Child of the Solstice".

[wxmann_91]

Maybe you can just maintain this thread the whole hurricane season, and keep changing the time and location of formation till you get it right? You'll be a hero.

Come on, let's be a bit more respectful. There are going to be correct calls, and there are going to be incorrect ones. The important thing is that he has the guts to post a prediction, and one that's based on hard science.

[chris_fit]

Maybe you can just maintain this thread the whole hurricane season, and keep changing the time and location of formation till you get it right? You'll be a hero.

What has he changed since the original post?

Same General Location and Same Time Frame.....

[canetracker]

Gentleman, I don't see how I can say this any clearer now. I strongly believe that we will see tropical cyclone formation in the West Central Gulf next week. The Carribean System is a no go. I'm sorry to have to tell you that. Look at recent WV Loops. Do you know what weakening it? That expansive ULL in the Yucutan Channel. Now the Atlantic System has a chance (but gentleman, not much of one). I know it looks good, but its more mid-level, water temps are not quite there yet either. Now PLEASE look at tonight's loop of the Gulf. Conditions across the Gulf are DETERIORATING RAPIDLY.
The ULL will bring storms across the Yucutan Channel and heavy storms across the Yucutan Penninsula tomorrow( you can book it.) Look at the storms powering down into the central Gulf from Miss. and La., its thundering here as I write this. Much moisture is being added to the Central Gulf. The GOM is becoming a hotbed for development. I know the last couple of days have made chance look weak. But I think that things really are coming together now for development in the West Central Gulf at 24N and 92 W between June 13th and June 16th (Wed-Sat of next week).

BB: I love your committment and am sure watching your predictions to see what happens. This is kind of like reverse blob watching. Instead, it is watching for where the next blob/TC will form.
I know the GFS is not always accurate, but it is picking up on lots of convection in the area you have mentioned around the time you have mentioned. Could this be a sign of things to come?? Who knows but I will continue to watch.

Keep up the posts and thanks for your insight.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[sevenleft]

Maybe you can just maintain this thread the whole hurricane season, and keep changing the time and location of formation till you get it right? You'll be a hero.

Come on, let's be a bit more respectful. There are going to be correct calls, and there are going to be incorrect ones. The important thing is that he has the guts to post a prediction, and one that's based on hard science.

There is a fine line between "hard science" and guessing.

There just isn't much to back long range predictions...and people wind up looking foolish more often then not.

Let's see how things are in a week.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe you can just maintain this thread the whole hurricane season, and keep changing the time and location of formation till you get it right? You'll be a hero.

Come on, let's be a bit more respectful. There are going to be correct calls, and there are going to be incorrect ones. The important thing is that he has the guts to post a prediction, and one that's based on hard science.

There is a fine line between "hard science" and guessing.

There just isn't much to back long range predictions...and people wind up looking foolish more often then not.

Let's see how things are in a week.

Very good post.