Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[miamicanes177]

On a more serious note (than my last post), I see lots of wind shear across the Gulf over the coming week. Though the GFS had been hinting at some type of west Caribbean development a week ago, it's not doing so any longer.

the 12Z NAM develops a 996mb tropical storm on wednesday. Shear forecast need to be taken VERY cautiously as it is very very difficult to predict wind shear.

[HouTXmetro]

A day late but storms are firing off the Northern Yucatan Coast/channel... What is that in the Carribean?!!!

['CaneFreak]

On a more serious note (than my last post), I see lots of wind shear across the Gulf over the coming week. Though the GFS had been hinting at some type of west Caribbean development a week ago, it's not doing so any longer.

the 12Z NAM develops a 996mb tropical storm on wednesday. Shear forecast need to be taken VERY cautiously as it is very very difficult to predict wind shear.

The NAM model ITSELF should be taken VERY CAUTIOUSLY because it is about 0 for 1000000 in predicting tropical weather.

[boca]

I guess if BB is to be correct their at least should be a cloud in the GOM. Where 3 days out from his June 13- 16th time frame.The GOM is perfectly clear right now but alot can change in a 24 hour peroid.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

I would just love to know what you base your "predictions" off of?? because no offense they are very far out int time and normally cover a large area of water and long time frame to develop!! anyone could say that in 7 to 10 days in a general area over a large enough area of water that something "may form" over the period of 4 days.!!! thats like saying its going to rain in central florida in 7 to 10 days between 3pm and 5pm during the summer..( where there is almost always a chance of rain some where in central floirda in the summer )

[windstorm99]

Personally i dont see anything developing in the gulf anytime soon as upper level winds will not suport tropical cyclone development and those conditions look to be hanging around atleast threw the next 3-5 days, and the mess to the south of jamaica will struggle with development as long as that ULL is in the vicinity.

[Aric Dunn]

because you have to Prove to me that there is reason to believe you !! and dont just say its a feeling!!! I need upper air proof .. surface analysis, model agreement.. you need to have a full "SYNOPTIC REASONING" to make a prediction. but by all means keep doing it and you will get better and better.. and maybe once or twice you will hit it on the head.. just as the "farmers Almanac" does. and again dont take any offense to this im just letting you know i would want the same thing for me

[boca]

This is BB reasoning for his forecasts. Everyone on this board has a right to make their forecasts no matter how far fetched they are, thats what this board is about.

Yes "KWT" I am "guessing" that the Jet will lessen as the trough which contained Barry finally pulls out. If thats what the GFS says (I don't really pay much attention to models) then so be it, I agree. Now I think the more stable upper environment (generally over the Belize area) will begin to drift NW at that time. It will bring with it an environment conducive to thunderstorm development. There has been persistent storminess now for quite some time near Belize and the western Yucutan Coast. I believe that within a few days these storms will gather height and intensity over the Yucutan landmass. The critical juncture will occur as the whole environment begins to "center itself" right along the NW point of the Yucutan. At that time, I believe that there will be a large moist environment over the entire Western half of the Gulf. You can almost see this "moist environment" already beginning to edge into the Western Gulf. With that enviroment and stable upper level conditions along the northern Yucutan Penninsula, I think we might begin to see a low pressure at the surface very near the NW tip of the Yucutan. This area should just drift slowly NW off the Coast and into the Gulf, all the while acquiring organization. Now I mean a SlOW DRIFT NW, don't read too much into the movement just yet. I would look for an upgrade to Depression or perhaps even Tropical Storm status at about 24N and 92W. At that point I might be concerned that the system has an opportunity to become a bonafide hurricane in the West Central Gulf. That how I see it at this point

[Starburst]

Well he did predict Barry and hit the nail right on the head. Most thought he was out of his mind then also.

[HouTXmetro]

In BB's defense.... His Barry's prediction was dead on, that's why I give him the respect to make predictions like this without ridicule. Granted he may get some wrong but he isn't going off of junk science.

[Aric Dunn]

This is BB reasoning for his forecasts. Everyone on this board has a right to make their forecasts no matter how far fetched they are, thats what this board is about.

Yes "KWT" I am "guessing" that the Jet will lessen as the trough which contained Barry finally pulls out. If thats what the GFS says (I don't really pay much attention to models) then so be it, I agree. Now I think the more stable upper environment (generally over the Belize area) will begin to drift NW at that time. It will bring with it an environment conducive to thunderstorm development. There has been persistent storminess now for quite some time near Belize and the western Yucutan Coast. I believe that within a few days these storms will gather height and intensity over the Yucutan landmass. The critical juncture will occur as the whole environment begins to "center itself" right along the NW point of the Yucutan. At that time, I believe that there will be a large moist environment over the entire Western half of the Gulf. You can almost see this "moist environment" already beginning to edge into the Western Gulf. With that enviroment and stable upper level conditions along the northern Yucutan Penninsula, I think we might begin to see a low pressure at the surface very near the NW tip of the Yucutan. This area should just drift slowly NW off the Coast and into the Gulf, all the while acquiring organization. Now I mean a SlOW DRIFT NW, don't read too much into the movement just yet. I would look for an upgrade to Depression or perhaps even Tropical Storm status at about 24N and 92W. At that point I might be concerned that the system has an opportunity to become a bonafide hurricane in the West Central Gulf. That how I see it at this point

i did not tell him to stop i actually told him to keep doing it!! and also his barry prediction was not dead on.. and im not going to argue the point because its irrelevant what he actually said would happen and what actually happened because what he said was vague enough to send us all into a argument about if he was right or sort of right or flat out wrong.. thats the problem with predicting things that far out.. and using vague reasoning you will always have people who see what they want to see.. but i want him to keep doing it ,he will get better and better.. he will learn.

[Aric Dunn]

In BB's defense.... His Barry's prediction was dead on, that's why I give him the respect to make predictions like this without ridicule. Granted he may get some wrong but he isn't going off of junk science.

you have to have "ridicule" its the only way to learn..

[Berwick Bay]

First, I feel strongly that tropical cyclone formation will occur where I "saw" it last week. Also, just a reminder about my forecasts. I've said on several occasions now that I "intuitively seek out" or open myself to where cyclone formation might occur. Does this mean I know nothing about the science of it all? Well, I know a few of the basics, but not near what many of you know. You see I made a conscious decision to let "my intuition" lead me this season. The science is in reality sorely lacking and not able to cope with even the basics such as Will a storm develop in a given area past a TWO DAY TIMEFRAME? I try to use everything I have at my disposal to do better than that. Pay close attention to the science of forecasting, and you will find so much of it is like "ambulance chasing". After the fact. How often have you heard that something is unlikely to happen, and then when it does, the proper reasoning is givenfor why it happened. But what happened to that original forecast for calm? Now for this storm. My feeling now as we approach the called for timeframe is that a low level circulation will develop (may even be developing now as I write this) over the Northern Yucutan Penninsula. It will drift W and then NW. Look at this loop, tell me whether or not you think that shear is relaxing in the Bay of Campeche and NORTH of there. I think it is. I look for a small low level circulation to find that niche out ahead of our Upper Level Low and encounter a more stable environment than many of you imagine in the West Central Gulf at about 24N and 92W.

[Berwick Bay]

Forgot to post the loop, here it is. Is shear lower than you might suppose in the Bay of Campeche and also a little NORTH of there, around 24N and 92W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Starburst]

In BB's defense.... His Barry's prediction was dead on, that's why I give him the respect to make predictions like this without ridicule. Granted he may get some wrong but he isn't going off of junk science.

you have to have "ridicule" its the only way to learn..

Arctic Dunn
Please PROVE to us that making someone feel humiliated and foolish is the only way for them to learn. Please DO NOT just say that is how you FEEL!! We need PROOF like case analysis, psychotherapeutic reasoning that ridiculing is the only way to learn. Keep us posted, search and search and maybe eventually you will find something to make US believe you!!!! Do not take offense to this of course as I am sure we have the time to ridicule you daily until you submit this proof.

[Aric Dunn]

First, I feel strongly that tropical cyclone formation will occur where I "saw" it last week. Also, just a reminder about my forecasts. I've said on several occasions now that I "intuitively seek out" or open myself to where cyclone formation might occur. Does this mean I know nothing about the science of it all? Well, I know a few of the basics, but not near what many of you know. You see I made a conscious decision to let "my intuition" lead me this season. The science is in reality sorely lacking and not able to cope with even the basics such as Will a storm develop in a given area past a TWO DAY TIMEFRAME? I try to use everything I have at my disposal to do better than that. Pay close attention to the science of forecasting, and you will find so much of it is like "ambulance chasing". After the fact. How often have you heard that something is unlikely to happen, and then when it does, the proper reasoning is givenfor why it happened. But what happened to that original forecast for calm? Now for this storm. My feeling now as we approach the called for timeframe is that a low level circulation will develop (may even be developing now as I write this) over the Northern Yucutan Penninsula. It will drift W and then NW. Look at this loop, tell me whether or not you think that shear is relaxing in the Bay of Campeche and NORTH of there. I think it is. I look for a small low level circulation to find that niche out ahead of our Upper Level Low and encounter a more stable environment than many of you imagine in the West Central Gulf at about 24N and 92W.

Im fine with you letting everyone know that its not based off of actual data .. I do the same in many cases.... but i also over the years ahve learned to use a combination of the two, both intuition and data.. and you should seek the later and the intuition will also improve. here is a great place to start http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap3/s ... 3_contents it has some very easy to understand and follow .. I also like that you pay attention to the details in satellite .. but that cannot be used alone... your loop is a visible.. the problem is that you have a ULL or possibly A TUTT in that area the only place for development is on the SE side of that feature http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html and since its moving slowly west .. anything that would form at the surface in the bay of campeche would not be a favorable area.. the system in the SW carib ( there is no surface low yet) may move nnw and eventually reach the NW carrib and southern gulf in a few days... if that tutt feature continues to with it.. there would pontentially be a good upper environment for some development but otherwise its not happening.

[drezee]

In BB's defense.... His Barry's prediction was dead on, that's why I give him the respect to make predictions like this without ridicule. Granted he may get some wrong but he isn't going off of junk science.

you have to have "ridicule" its the only way to learn..

Arctic Dunn
Please PROVE to us that making someone feel humiliated and foolish is the only way for them to learn. Please DO NOT just say that is how you FEEL!! We need PROOF like case analysis, psychotherapeutic reasoning that ridiculing is the only way to learn. Keep us posted, search and search and maybe eventually you will find something to make US believe you!!!! Do not take offense to this of course as I am sure we have the time to ridicule you daily until you submit this proof.

I saw this one coming a mile away...but what will be the rebuttal?

[Aric Dunn]

In BB's defense.... His Barry's prediction was dead on, that's why I give him the respect to make predictions like this without ridicule. Granted he may get some wrong but he isn't going off of junk science.

you have to have "ridicule" its the only way to learn..

Arctic Dunn
Please PROVE to us that making someone feel humiliated and foolish is the only way for them to learn. Please DO NOT just say that is how you FEEL!! We need PROOF like case analysis, psychotherapeutic reasoning that ridiculing is the only way to learn. Keep us posted, search and search and maybe eventually you will find something to make US believe you!!!! Do not take offense to this of course as I am sure we have the time to ridicule you daily until you submit this proof.

why thank you for that.. i believe that by you telling me that i have learned to choose better words next time... if you believe that you dont learn from experiences that you are mistaken.. all life is.. is a bunch of experiences! and you said feel humiliated.. who is humiliated? you ? me ? BB ? hmmm... can you learn not to be humiliated? how would you do that? what is humiliated ? maybe a lack of experience with being informed that you may want to re look your approach to certain "words you choose" or maybe a little "constructive criticism"?

[Berwick Bay]

Aric and Dr. I'm sorry that I offend you. I'm not doing anything against the rules (but perhaps now using words like ridicule, you are). Aric, thanks for the scientific sites, but no thanks! You use the information as it it presents a certainty about what will happen, but your infomation will fail badly many times before this season is out. I admit, perhaps I am wrong, I don't claim to be foolproof. Now this word ridicule was tossed around. Believe me, I will not be "crushed" if my "forecast" fails. I'm trying to do something which is far and beyond what any of your models can yet accomplish. Sort of like playing chess against a computer model. If I fail, I will be batting .500 at something your computer models don't dare yet attempt. BTW does that word ridicule only apply to ME, if MY forecast fails. Will it apply to any others on this board who have gone out of their way to say that something is impossible?

[sevenleft]

Aric and Dr. I'm sorry that I offend you. I'm not doing anything against the rules (but perhaps now using words like ridicule, you are). Aric, thanks for the scientific sites, but no thanks! You use the information as it it presents a certainty about what will happen, but your infomation will fail badly many times before this season is out. I admit, perhaps I am wrong, I don't claim to be foolproof. Now this word ridicule was tossed around. Believe me, I will not be "crushed" if my "forecast" fails. I'm trying to do something which is far and beyond what any of your models can yet accomplish. Sort of like playing chess against a computer model. If I fail, I will be batting .500 at something your computer models don't dare yet attempt. BTW does that word ridicule only apply to ME, if MY forecast fails. Will it apply to any others on this board who have gone out of their way to say that something is impossible?

Not sure if you realize it, but you did just admit your forecasting method is guessing.