Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[Stratosphere747]

HouTx...

You not considering that small thunderstorm complex north of the Yucatan as the beginnings of BB's forecast?

[Derecho]

A day late, but we do have showers developing in the area BB predicted.. Now i will be looking for shower persistence and general movement of convection.

It's a dangerous path to walk down trying to find ways predictions are "partially" correct. You start adding days on either side of the prediction window, start counting "showers" etc. and then you're left with no prediction at all, or a prediction that can't help but always verify. At worst you start getting Farmer's Almanac "look for storms near the East Coast the end of August and the beginning of September" stuff.

I've seen it happen a lot, particularly in seismology - people let their hope that it really is possible to predict earthquakes (or in this case, tropical development weeks ahead of time) color their objective evaluation of predictions. Which is understandable.

What's a little less understandable is the somewhat odd desire I see on Weather boards for people to have a "Guru" to "Follow." Back in the good(bad?) old days when I posted a lot, heck, people even tried to do it with me, despite the fact that I actually hardly ever tried to predict anything and told people I'm no guru. This Guru desire seems also to color objective evaluations of predictions.

[skysummit]

I'm not seeing any possibility for Chantal to form now, 93L had been our chance and now it has diminished.


We'll have to wait and see...

Wow...so you're saying it's gonna be a really quiet season with only 2 named storms?

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm not seeing any possibility for Chantal to form now, 93L had been our chance and now it has diminished.


We'll have to wait and see...

Wow...so you're saying it's gonna be a really quiet season with only 2 named storms?

Wow, what a badly placed joke on your part.


I said I don't see it developing NOW, as in developing in the near future. Nice try though

[Derecho]

In BB's defense.... His Barry's prediction was dead on, that's why I give him the respect to make predictions like this without ridicule. Granted he may get some wrong but he isn't going off of junk science.

Everyone is going to be right once and awhile. It's like picking the right lotto numbers. I'm sorry but
getting something right once doesn't all of the sudden make you an "expert".

Your statement insinuates that there is no scientific reasoning involved in his forecasting when in fact there is.

You missed his point, I think.

Let me give you an example:

On certain other boards that are basically obsessed with snowfall in the cities of the Northeast, there are a good half-dozen to a dozen people (many of whom are actual meterologists, some are not) who predict said snowfall every Fall.

Such predictions tend to be an enormous post or even a long series of posts, filled with charts, graphs, maps, paragraphs and paragraphs of sound meteorological reasoning, ec.

Now, ONE of the group of people that do this tend to be end up being more or less right, once the season is over.

Said person is then heaped with "Kudos" all Spring and Summer, generally worshipped, etc. Their every post is scrutinized and anticipated in the Fall for their winter forecast next year, like kids waiting for Christmas or the next Star Wars movie.

Typically, their forecast ends up being a miserable flop the next year, and somebody ELSE of the group of people that makes those forecasts is right, and then THEY are the annointed board "Winter Guru" for the next year, until THEY blow a florecast, etc.

Why does this happen?

Because we currently (and may never) be able to accurately forecast snowfall for specific locations in the NE US in the winter, because so much of the snow is concentrated in a few storms minor random fluctuations in temperature or track turn a foot of snow into half an inch of snow, or to all rain, or vice-versa.

But there are enough different people making different predictions that one of them will happen to be randomly sort of right every year.

But people WANT TO BELIEVE we can do it. And thus the above cycle I described will continue.

[Air Force Met]

Typically, their forecast ends up being a miserable flop the next year, and somebody ELSE of the group of people that makes those forecasts is right, and then THEY are the annointed board "Winter Guru" for the next year, until THEY blow a florecast, etc.

Hmmmm...sounds like the Dr. Gray or Accuweather forecasts. Lots of reasons...but seldom right.

[sevenleft]

Typically, their forecast ends up being a miserable flop the next year, and somebody ELSE of the group of people that makes those forecasts is right, and then THEY are the annointed board "Winter Guru" for the next year, until THEY blow a florecast, etc.

Hmmmm...sounds like the Dr. Gray or Accuweather forecasts. Lots of reasons...but seldom right.

Which is why I don't like to predict weather. Forecasting however, is determining what existing weather is going to do. Thats how I look at it anyway.

I could care less about predicting where a TC is gonna form, especially when nothing exists to support such a prediction. But forecasting its path once it forms...much more reasonable.

[tailgater]

My 2 cents: BB has 6 days for his forecast to occur.
IMO this predicition chances are waning, but there's still a good bit of time and IF the UUL in the NW Caribbean continues to back SSW it COULD pull lots of moisture northward and the upper and lower level high over Texas coast and LA. ARK.border MIGHT drift to the east and set up some pretty favorable conditions. Okay blast away.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[TS Zack]

I'm not seeing any possibility for Chantal to form now, 93L had been our chance and now it has diminished.


We'll have to wait and see...

Wow...so you're saying it's gonna be a really quiet season with only 2 named storms?

Wow, what a badly placed joke on your part.


I said I don't see it developing NOW, as in developing in the near future. Nice try though

People don't read how you speak. You should have said, "Currently I see no signs of any possibility for Chantal to form." Instead you put now at the end making people read it as you see no possibility of Chantal to form now. Making now sound like you meant Chantal wouldn't form at this time and for future times.

[sevenleft]

I'm not seeing any possibility for Chantal to form now, 93L had been our chance and now it has diminished.


We'll have to wait and see...

Wow...so you're saying it's gonna be a really quiet season with only 2 named storms?

Wow, what a badly placed joke on your part.


I said I don't see it developing NOW, as in developing in the near future. Nice try though

People don't read how you speak. You should have said, "Currently I see no signs of any possibility for Chantal to form." Instead you put now at the end making people read it as you see no possibility of Chantal to form now. Making now sound like you meant Chantal wouldn't form at this time and for future times.

Well..the way I read it was there was no chance for Chantal to form from the current disturbed areas. But that is just my two cents.

[wxmann_91]

There's a difference between a long range and a medium range forecast. It's like comparing apples to oranges; I have tried both, gave up on the LR, and stuck to the medium range regarding severe weather forecasts. It's actually fairly easy if you've done enough research and know enough basic weather knowledge. Though I can't blindly trust someone, perhaps Berwick is onto something here. Anyhow, if his forecast verification scores stand the test of time, I will listen to him more.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow.

I'm furthermore not posting in this topic, it's honestly annoying me. He made a "cute" joke and I responded, there was no need for you to enter the conversation Zack, furthermore I could care less what you have to say.

Putting it bluntly this topic has become a hotbed for two people, Berwick's supporters and those who either take it personally to show the prediction won't come true, or those who do it without such distinction.


It's a shame to see such division, and i'm sure Berwick will receive some mildly sarcastic commenting IF his prediction turns out dead wrong. But I could be wrong, point is let's show some maturity here people.

[HouTXmetro]

OK.. BB... do you expect the moisture off the Yucatan coast to diminish overnight?What are your latest thoughts..?

[Derecho]

Typically, their forecast ends up being a miserable flop the next year, and somebody ELSE of the group of people that makes those forecasts is right, and then THEY are the annointed board "Winter Guru" for the next year, until THEY blow a florecast, etc.

Hmmmm...sounds like the Dr. Gray or Accuweather forecasts. Lots of reasons...but seldom right.

The latter, yes, the former - Not quite certain why Gray gets so much criticism.

His forecasts are quite specific numerically, are all recorded, and he'll harshly criticize his own failures. And statistically, he does better than random guessing - he's demonstrating "skill" over time. ENORMOUS amounts of skill? No. Every season? No.

But it's an example of scientifically valid forecasting attempts and verfification of said forecasts, and really doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as the practices of The Private Meteorological Company That Shall Not Be Named, IMHO.

[Dean4Storms]

Well I didn't "slate" him, just disagreed with him on the upper pattern he called for with the influx of moisture coming up from Belize creating a TC NW of the Yucatan this coming week. His moisture from there didn't verify, his second attempt to find moisture from the UL Trough over the Bahamas sliding west into the Gulf and becoming his energy for Cyclogenesis didn't verify either. On top of that the Longwave trough that reinforced the ridging over the GOM did verify as I stated.
I should also add that I stated the GFS has been indicating the possibility of something getting together in the western Carib and that it might turn NE and cross South Florida, that I did say.

I also don't think we will see an LLC today from the popcorn showers near the Yucatan....and at the rate it is moving...it will be inland in Mexico by Tuesday. It also looks like the ULL will follow it the whole way providing a nice 30-40 kts of easterly shear the entire time (and continued dry air). So...if this is what we are waiting on to develop (and BB hinted that this might be the feature on page 8)...then we can forget it.

I agree AFM, the ULL should provide alot of shear over roughly the southern half of the GOM with ridging dominating the surface.

Now it is interesting to see the GFS 12z run showing a strong MCS in the GOM come the 19th north of the Yucatan. Not that it has anything to do with what BB was calling for, but something to watch if the GFS continues with this feature.

[Dean4Storms]

Typically, their forecast ends up being a miserable flop the next year, and somebody ELSE of the group of people that makes those forecasts is right, and then THEY are the annointed board "Winter Guru" for the next year, until THEY blow a florecast, etc.

Hmmmm...sounds like the Dr. Gray or Accuweather forecasts. Lots of reasons...but seldom right.

The latter, yes, the former - Not quite certain why Gray gets so much criticism.

His forecasts are quite specific numerically, are all recorded, and he'll harshly criticize his own failures. And statistically, he does better than random guessing - he's demonstrating "skill" over time. ENORMOUS amounts of skill? No. Every season? No.

But it's an example of scientifically valid forecasting attempts and verfification of said forecasts, and really doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as the practices of The Private Meteorological Company That Shall Not Be Named, IMHO.

LMAO!!!!

[Tampa_God]

Both the activities in the Carribbean and E. Atlantic were looking great this morning, but this evening looks like the activity in the Carr. is getting extremely sheared off and E. Atlantic has barely any persipatation with it.

I do believe I have something forming in the N. Carr. by the 22nd. I'll try to get my map up, but I can't make any promises.

[TS Zack]

Wow.

I'm furthermore not posting in this topic, it's honestly annoying me. He made a "cute" joke and I responded, there was no need for you to enter the conversation Zack, furthermore I could care less what you have to say.

Putting it bluntly this topic has become a hotbed for two people, Berwick's supporters and those who either take it personally to show the prediction won't come true, or those who do it without such distinction.


It's a shame to see such division, and i'm sure Berwick will receive some mildly sarcastic commenting IF his prediction turns out dead wrong. But I could be wrong, point is let's show some maturity here people.

All I was doing was letting you know how I took it. Sorry if I came across in the wrong way.

[Aric Dunn]

you know Im terribly sorry I started all this.. with such a simple question to MR.BB .. but maybe it was a good thing ?? maybe all this tension needed to come clean? im finally seeing some good "constructive criticism"! and thats what its all about ..learning!! I hope i did not cause too much pain and hardship for it was not my intention, I simply was trying to figure out how MR.BB was making his prediction and it turned into a 6 to 7 page (for the most part a release) what ever you want to call it. but anyway.. i like mr. derecho's analysis ! i also used the the "farmers almanac" and a analogy of the type of forecast that come from such vague predictions and i agree with mr. derecho. and airforce met and all the others who took a step back and saw the bigger picture!

[Aric Dunn]

Wow.

I'm furthermore not posting in this topic, it's honestly annoying me. He made a "cute" joke and I responded, there was no need for you to enter the conversation Zack, furthermore I could care less what you have to say.

Putting it bluntly this topic has become a hotbed for two people, Berwick's supporters and those who either take it personally to show the prediction won't come true, or those who do it without such distinction.


It's a shame to see such division, and i'm sure Berwick will receive some mildly sarcastic commenting IF his prediction turns out dead wrong. But I could be wrong, point is let's show some maturity here people.

All I was doing was letting you know how I took it. Sorry if I came across in the wrong way.

dont even get me started.. on maturity!! and you talk about the division . bewtween everyone.. ? so how do you suppose things in this world get accomplished? is it when everyone agrees the "earth is Flat"