Still Watching Yucutan
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Still Watching Yucutan
But I don't get this statement from this morning's Gulf of Mexico Discussion.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF AND AWAY
FROM THE CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THAT
SAME CYCLONIC FLOW IN SOME WAY.
"Eventually merging with that same cyclonic flow IN SOME WAY??? Maybe meaning clockwise rotation around upper High and counterclockwise around Ull are meeting and adding to shear environment?? But it sounds like he's talking about some future event. Don't get it. Maybe not important.
EDIT: TOPIC CHANGED BY GULFBREEZER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF AND AWAY
FROM THE CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THAT
SAME CYCLONIC FLOW IN SOME WAY.
"Eventually merging with that same cyclonic flow IN SOME WAY??? Maybe meaning clockwise rotation around upper High and counterclockwise around Ull are meeting and adding to shear environment?? But it sounds like he's talking about some future event. Don't get it. Maybe not important.
EDIT: TOPIC CHANGED BY GULFBREEZER
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- Starburst
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Brownsville NWS:
ALSO OF INTEREST IN THE LONGER TERM IN THE GULF OF
MEX...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW SAGS TOWARDS THE TX
COASTLINE...THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP A BROAD TROPICAL SURFACE LOW
OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER THE 120 HOUR MARK AND MOVE IT
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF BY NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
REFLECT THIS FEATURE AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING IF FUTURE RUNS OF
THE GFS CONTINUE TO CARRY THIS FEATURE.
ALSO OF INTEREST IN THE LONGER TERM IN THE GULF OF
MEX...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW SAGS TOWARDS THE TX
COASTLINE...THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP A BROAD TROPICAL SURFACE LOW
OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER THE 120 HOUR MARK AND MOVE IT
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF BY NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
REFLECT THIS FEATURE AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING IF FUTURE RUNS OF
THE GFS CONTINUE TO CARRY THIS FEATURE.
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from the looks of the latest gfs.. the system that the gfs possibly forms off the Yucatan in 5 days (which is iffy going out that far)actually originates in the sw carrib ! just about where we have that present burst of convection .. or a little further south where we have more cyclonic turning. now given the fact that the convection in the western gulf has easterly trade winds blowing right thru it, i would not think we would see a low develop there but rather further south. interesting to note that we have a possible tutt feature taking shape and the upper environment in the western carrib may become quite favorable in the next day or so. i would expect to see development in the Caribbean where then it would move north into the gulf . since the present trend is for at the least maintain or increase the convection in the western gulf, if we see a low trying to develop anywhere around it we could see development sooner rather than later. although if today is anything like the last couple of days i imagine we will see the convection weaken and shift westward with the upper low and redeveloping right where we the most difluent flow aloft on the back side of that low. as of right now and the immediate future being the next 24 to 36 hours the gulf is shut off for tropical development! until that upper low moves far enough west or pulls out but if we see the upper low move out the time that it would take for the environment to become more conducive would increase and we would likely lose the present lifting going on. we would want to see the upper low continue west allowing and favorable area in the western carrib so that we can get a low to form that would drift north and west with the upper low and eventually possibly making it into the gulf.
and actually as i was writing that .. i saw the 6z gfs ( although the 6z and 18z models are normally run with the same old data from the 00zand the 12z ) the gfs develops the low in the nw carrib and brings it up over Florida. and that is what was expected since its out nearly five days and the Caribbean has a general lower pressure field the gfs is spinning up lows all the time it wont get a handle on it till something starts taking shape.
and actually as i was writing that .. i saw the 6z gfs ( although the 6z and 18z models are normally run with the same old data from the 00zand the 12z ) the gfs develops the low in the nw carrib and brings it up over Florida. and that is what was expected since its out nearly five days and the Caribbean has a general lower pressure field the gfs is spinning up lows all the time it wont get a handle on it till something starts taking shape.
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Nice analysis Aric. And I am a curious person. Yesterday you mentioned something about chances of formation near the ULL. Tell me if I misunderstood you on this point. Speaking GENERALLY, is tropical formation more likely to the east or west of a ULL system. Perhaps I misunderstood you altogether.
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Berwick Bay wrote:Nice analysis Aric. And I am a curious person. Yesterday you mentioned something about chances of formation near the ULL. Tell me if I misunderstood you on this point. Speaking GENERALLY, is tropical formation more likely to the east or west of a ULL system. Perhaps I misunderstood you altogether.
on the east side in this case.. sometimes though you will have multiple tutts or ULL around a system causing very good outflow channels.. but the thing to remember is that where ever you have a LOW pressure there is always a High next to it either being on the north east west .. since after all everything flows from high pressure to low pressure.
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in our case the upper low being as large as it is. covers the entire gulf right now so tropical development is very low .. the area to the east and se of the upper low is where you generally see good environments which right now is the sw carrib and south central carrib. but if the ULL axis tilts a little more north to south rather then sw to ne or closes off into a TUTT then a upper ridge would either shift west over the western carrib or become more pronounced over the sw carrib
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- Meso
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funny .. now the ukmet and the nogaps seem to be doing what the gfs was doing a couple days ago where it was developing something off the east coast of Florida seemingly from some sort of T'storm complex that moves of the florida coast
All the models were showing something there earlier,I made a thread on it..somewhere down the page with all the model runs..But I think they've changed a bit since then
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Meso wrote:funny .. now the ukmet and the nogaps seem to be doing what the gfs was doing a couple days ago where it was developing something off the east coast of Florida seemingly from some sort of T'storm complex that moves of the florida coast
All the models were showing something there earlier,I made a thread on it..somewhere down the page with all the model runs..But I think they've changed a bit since then
yeah i had noticed a little yesterday.. but today they are more in agreement with each other.. i was just giving it another day
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't think we will see anything developing off the east coast of Florida. The best bet for any development over the next week will probably be in the NW Caribbean or the Southern Gulf of Mexico (where conditions will likely be best for development).
agreed.. this is interesting ...
i put this in the other thread as well " even more interesting is the GFDL for the east pac invest... pay attention to the nw carrib and easter gulf come the 3 to 5 day range.. i see a low over there ... now given that gfdl is focusing on the east pac.. it still is something worth noting ... i have noticed throughout the previous hurricane seasons that when the gfdl is running on a particular system and there are more than that system near by that the gfdl will pick up on the other one as well but it normally under-estiamtes the other one so when i noticed the gulf i though it would be doing the same .. either way we have to wait and see."
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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- jasons2k
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This is an update from a pro met here in Houston, Jeff Lindner:
Upper pattern begins to change toward the end of the week with influences from both the tropics and mid latitudes affecting SE TX. Stout upper ridge gives way to trough/possible closed upper low over N TX Friday and Saturday while strong tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea is brought NW into the Gulf of Mexico off the Yucatan coast by 120hrs. GFS and ECMWF develop the tropical wave into a broad surface low over the southern Gulf of Mexico likely in response to downstream venting of the air mass from N TX upper level low/trough which should be moving into E TX and LA by Sunday. Pattern is not all that different from what spun up Barry, just further to the west. Initial thought would be anything that forms would be carried off to the N or NE ahead of upper trough over TX/LA.
Will need to keep close watch of potential for Gulf development and may need to start ramping up seas and winds Saturday and Sunday should model runs continue to suggest low pressure formation.
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- wxman57
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Upper-level winds don't look quite as favorable as they were for Barry, but the setup is nearly identical. Not much chance of significant development (strong TS or more), mostly the chance of another beneficial rainfall event for Florida. Tropical cyclone development chances (TD/TS) probably no more than 5-10%.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 451 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2007 .DISCUSSION... NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TODAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE 70S. BEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST FROM HIGH ISLAND NORTH TO LIVINGSTON AND CROCKETT. LAKE BREEZES MAY AGAIN ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-HOUSTON COUNTIES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WITH PW ON THE RISE (GPS IPWV INDICATE 1.5-2.0" AMOUNTS) WILL GET SOME ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PROBABLY IN THE ASSOCIATION WITH THE LAKE BREEZES) IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES. SEABREEZE MAY GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TUESDAY AND SETTLE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT TO THE SABINE VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES. BY THURSDAY THE RAIN CHANCES START GOING UP AREAWIDE WITH FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY BEING ACTIVE DAYS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN...GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING IT NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IT SPINS IT UP OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL GULF. PROBABLY OVERDOING BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR CONSISTENCY. ECMWF NOT AS PESSIMISTIC WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS FRIDAY...IT IS NOW GOT STRONGER RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO KS...THIS MAY BE AN EARLY (AND GOOD?) INDICATOR THAT RAIN CHANCES GO DOWN ON SUNDAY.
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Sticking with the prediction we are discussin:
12Z run of the GFS is not near as aggressive with the development of a sfc feature by late week. What it is consistent in is the wall of W-E shear that is over the northern GOM...north of 23N. As much as 50-70 knots (70 in the NW GOM) over the northern GOM north of 27N.
The largescale 500mb trof is also pretty strong over most of the GOM with strong Nrly flow all the way down to the BoC in 72 hrs.
Bottom line is the conditions in the GoM are not good for formation. Now...something could form and move into the Gom (from the WCAR)...but that is not what the prediction is. The prediction was for upper level conditions in West Central Gulf to improve and that formation would come out of this development...somewhere NW of the Yucatan.
As of right now...the upper level winds are pretty unfavorable during this time frame....at all levels.
12Z run of the GFS is not near as aggressive with the development of a sfc feature by late week. What it is consistent in is the wall of W-E shear that is over the northern GOM...north of 23N. As much as 50-70 knots (70 in the NW GOM) over the northern GOM north of 27N.
The largescale 500mb trof is also pretty strong over most of the GOM with strong Nrly flow all the way down to the BoC in 72 hrs.
Bottom line is the conditions in the GoM are not good for formation. Now...something could form and move into the Gom (from the WCAR)...but that is not what the prediction is. The prediction was for upper level conditions in West Central Gulf to improve and that formation would come out of this development...somewhere NW of the Yucatan.
As of right now...the upper level winds are pretty unfavorable during this time frame....at all levels.
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From the Tallahassee NWS discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007
.SYNOPSIS...AFTER THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE REGION
THUS FAR ON SUNDAY....TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHICH ARE FREE FROM ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THUS
FAR...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT UNCOMMON FOR OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE
100 HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
USUALLY THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY RIDGING AT THE SFC AS WELL...
LEADING TO THE TERM "STACKED RIDGING". THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE
ACTUALLY OBSERVING A STRUCTURE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WELL DEFINED
"HEAT LOW" AT THE SFC WHICH IS A MUCH MORE COMMON OCCURRENCE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD...GIVING US
ONE MORE DAY OF 100 DEGREE HEAT TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK. AS THIS
RIDGE HEADS WESTWARD...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL HEAD SOUTHWARD AND SET UP A GENERAL
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL BOTH DECREASE OUR HIGH TEMPS AND INCREASE OUR RAIN
CHANCES...AS SOME OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HELP CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROF
MAY HELP INITIATE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS ON TUESDAY IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT SUCH THAT DAYTIME HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.
&&
.LONG TERM...THE GFS IS NOW TRYING TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND...AS IT GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN A SFC
LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE OLD UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW NEAR
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WILL BE MONITORING THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS FOR
ANY SIMILAR INDICATIONS...BUT FOR NOW...THE OLD 12 UTC EURO RUN IS
STILL NEGATIVE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007
.SYNOPSIS...AFTER THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE REGION
THUS FAR ON SUNDAY....TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHICH ARE FREE FROM ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THUS
FAR...WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT UNCOMMON FOR OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE
100 HEAT THIS TIME OF YEAR UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
USUALLY THIS WILL BE REFLECTED BY RIDGING AT THE SFC AS WELL...
LEADING TO THE TERM "STACKED RIDGING". THIS TIME HOWEVER...WE ARE
ACTUALLY OBSERVING A STRUCTURE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WELL DEFINED
"HEAT LOW" AT THE SFC WHICH IS A MUCH MORE COMMON OCCURRENCE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD...GIVING US
ONE MORE DAY OF 100 DEGREE HEAT TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK. AS THIS
RIDGE HEADS WESTWARD...A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL HEAD SOUTHWARD AND SET UP A GENERAL
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL BOTH DECREASE OUR HIGH TEMPS AND INCREASE OUR RAIN
CHANCES...AS SOME OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HELP CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROF
MAY HELP INITIATE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS ON TUESDAY IF THE TIMING
WORKS OUT SUCH THAT DAYTIME HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.
&&
.LONG TERM...THE GFS IS NOW TRYING TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND...AS IT GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN A SFC
LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE OLD UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW NEAR
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WILL BE MONITORING THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS FOR
ANY SIMILAR INDICATIONS...BUT FOR NOW...THE OLD 12 UTC EURO RUN IS
STILL NEGATIVE.
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