Still Watching Yucutan

[Stratosphere747]

Wanted to mention that this is the time of year that AFD's across the coast mention the spurious lows seen by the models. As we know many times nothing comes out of it, but they are put in the discos more and more.

It's the year of the Euro.....

[punkyg]

Hahaha i laughing cause i'm bored and because the gfs wants some surface low to develop in the gulf.
I believe something will develop in the north carribean i say next week ah who am i kidding nothing will develop
i'll still watch things, but for now i'll crawl back in to bed.

[Frank2]

I'd have to agree with Air Force Met - shear is still way too strong for anything to develop at this time, especially north of 23 or 24 N. For example, last week, Florida had a 100 kt jet overhead, so...

I'm tempted to start talking about the season possibly not being as active, conditions-wise, as many have predicted (the key word is predict, or guess), but, as Festus would say on Gunsmoke, some here might try to ride me out of town on a rail (haw)...

Still, one only has to look at the IR to see that strong shear is very evident across the tropics at this time...

As Dr. Lyons mentioned - a busy season does not necessarily mean busy for landfalling hurricanes - just busy somewhere in the Atlantic basin...

[Acral]

For this time of year, it is active enough. pulling the plug on the season just 10 days in seems a little silly...

[Frank2]

Well, like I said, I'm only tempted to start talking about that - it is early, after all...

Still, many here don't realize that the most active part of the season only lasts from mid-August to late September, a relatively short period, so, if conditions aren't just right during that brief period, that can make the difference.

Last year was a good example - many here believed that favorable conditions (for a hurricane, that is) would mean a busy seaon throughout the summer, but, that is false thinking - that six-week window in August and September is really the heart of the season - the weeks before and after are in reality the margins in a statistical sense, and, the bar graph often used to show hurricane frequence is a good indicator of this...

As last year turned out, by the time that window of opportunity opened, the El Nino shear had strengthened (it was already strong earlier in the summer), and, as a result, the seaon was less than expected...

[gatorcane]

It's only Jun 11th....

shear like we are seeing this time of year is not unusual....

[flwxwatcher]

I wouldn't pull the plug on the season just yet:)).. Shear this time of the year is not uncommon at all. Even if no more named Storms happen until August the Season could still be well above normal..

A few examples:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Keep the faith, We have a long ways to go yet in this season:):)

[AnnularCane]

Season cancel already?

[Stratosphere747]

Season cancel already?

It's about to be a train wreck around here if something doesn't pop up in a week or so, no matter how much you tell folks this is the norm.

[Ptarmigan]

I wouldn't be so quick to write this season off. 2004 had a late start and it ended up being very active. 1997 had an early start and were at Danny in July and also we had a subtropical storm that formed before June, yet it ended up as quiet due to El Nino, a very strong one.

[Stratosphere747]

I wouldn't be so quick to write this season off. 2004 had a late start and it ended up being very active. 1997 had an early start and were at Danny in July and also we had a subtropical storm that formed before June, yet it ended up as quiet due to El Nino, a very strong one.

While somewhat irritating, most all the "season cancel" posts are made in jest. Be another few weeks before people become emotionally scarred...

Back on subject - Still see nothing in the Yucatan area to become remotely concerned.

[Kennethb]

No need to cancel the season. It is early June. We could go 2 months or more without a named system. Once we get to middle, late August, I am sure we will be quite busy. Enjoy the quiet time in the tropics while it is here.

[DanKellFla]

Kennethb, I am enjoying it immensely. Dull is good. Leftover water is good. Maybe this year, I will throw a party with the theme, "Use your leftover cans of Tuna." I would love a season of fish storms.

[Berwick Bay]

I haven't given up yet on my W Central Gulf Forecast. Yesterday the Yucutan Penninsula saw it biggest "blow up" yet, before storms moved off last night into the Bay of Campeche and then fizzled. I expect more heavy firing today with storms centered slightly further north along the northen Yucutan Coast.

[Berwick Bay]

From this morning's Atlantic Discussion

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA
24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO 23N88W.

Thats right along the Northern Yucutan Coast. Its being called now a "mid to upper level" low. Thinking it PERHAPS might have a chance to work its down to the surface along that Northern Coast. But I do have a dog in this fight (my old original forcast for development here). Elsewhere discussion mentions that Upper Level High over Tex-Mex seems to be strengthening even more! (Thus that strong upper level flow from the north that it mentions is west of 90W in the Gulf). Thats what many of you have been saying is just not good for development. Apparently no change at this time.

[Frank2]

We're back - just after I posted here yesterday, a few posted right after that seemed irritated by my comment, then, the server went down - as 007 would say, guess it was a case of too much static (ha)...

As I mentioned, it is very early, so, no one knows exactly how the season will go, however, the mention of the current ULL in the northwest Caribbean brings back memories of last season - which was filled with unfavorable ULL's and lots of shear, so...

[Berwick Bay]

From this morning's discussion

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA
24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO 23N88W.

Thats right along the Northern Yucutan Coast. Its being called now a "mid to upper level" low.

My "wishful thinking" at this time is that the Mid Level Flow into the storm will begin to "tighten" and enter the storm at a more sharp angle, evidencing a more low level flow. Looking at present WV images, you can see the long flow from about Punta Gorda moving across the Gulf toward the ULL in a straight line or a very gradual movement into the system. What I am "hoping" (so that my vision of development will be verified) is that the inflow will tighten up over the Northern Yucutan Coast today. Looking for a "bursting effect" (images of red, not yellow) from infrared pics over the Yucutan Coast today. This would help bring in a lower level circulation there.

[MWatkins]

From this morning's discussion

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA
24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO 23N88W.

Thats right along the Northern Yucutan Coast. Its being called now a "mid to upper level" low.

My "wishful thinking" at this time is that the Mid Level Flow into the storm will begin to "tighten" and enter the storm at a more sharp angle, evidencing a more low level flow. Looking at present WV images, you can see the long flow from about Punta Gorda moving across the Gulf toward the ULL in a straight line or a very gradual movement into the system. What I am "hoping" (so that my vision of development will be verified) is that the inflow will tighten up over the Northern Yucutan Coast today. Looking for a "bursting effect" (images of red, not yellow) from infrared pics over the Yucutan Coast today. This would help bring in a lower level circulation there.

If there are thunderstorms along the coast today...they will be there due to instability from daytime (diurnal) heating.

Are you suggesting that thunderstorms from daytime heating are going to create a tropical surface circulation and make this shallow upper low work down to the surface later today?

MW

[Air Force Met]

Looking for a "bursting effect" (images of red, not yellow) from infrared pics over the Yucutan Coast today. This would help bring in a lower level circulation there.

You probably will get some deep convection over the Yucatan today. The upper low is there: It's cold aloft and the Yucatan is on its divergent side heating up in the sun. All of those ingredients destablize the atmopshere. It happens all the time over land in the tropics during the summer. When I was stationed in Belize...I would always forecast TSTMS when I saw this setup.

That being said...that sort of setup doesn't bring in LLC's. It may spin up areas of mid level vorticity...but it won't create a LLC since there is no low level cyclonic turning already in existence...and the convection will die after the sun goes down and the atmosphere stablizes.

And starting tomorrow...at 24/92...well all over the Gulf for that matter...the upper winds are as unfavorable for this time of year for development as they possibly canbe. There is 35 kts of shear over that area tmorrow. IT lessens for a day on Thursday...but is back with a vengence by Friday and Saturday with 50kts over the northern Gulf. The upper winds will be about as unfavorable for development as we can get.

[Air Force Met]

If there are thunderstorms along the coast today...they will be there due to instability from daytime (diurnal) heating.

Are you suggesting that thunderstorms from daytime heating are going to create a tropical surface circulation and make this shallow upper low work down to the surface later today?

MW

That's what I read...hence the reason for my reply. If that had a possibility of happening...we would be under the gun 100 times a year from the TSTMS over the Yucatan on a hot summer's day