SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

[Extremeweatherguy]

Rain chances look to slowly rise the next several days. Also, we will need to watch the Caribbean closely. Here is a look at the latest Houston AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TODAY
WILL BE MUCH LIKE SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...LOWS IN
THE 70S. BEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE IN THE EAST FROM HIGH
ISLAND NORTH TO LIVINGSTON AND CROCKETT. LAKE BREEZES MAY AGAIN
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-HOUSTON
COUNTIES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WITH PW ON
THE RISE (GPS IPWV INDICATE 1.5-2.0" AMOUNTS) WILL GET SOME
ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PROBABLY IN THE ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LAKE BREEZES) IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ZONES. SEABREEZE MAY
GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TUESDAY AND SETTLE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
THE SABINE VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES. BY THURSDAY
THE RAIN CHANCES START GOING UP AREAWIDE WITH FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
SATURDAY BEING ACTIVE DAYS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE CONVECTION
IN THE CARIBBEAN...GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING IT NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IT SPINS IT UP OVER
THE SOUTHCENTRAL GULF. PROBABLY OVERDOING BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IT FOR CONSISTENCY. ECMWF NOT AS PESSIMISTIC WITH AN UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS FRIDAY...IT IS NOW GOT STRONGER RIDGING
OVER WEST TEXAS AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE LOW LIFTING
NORTH INTO KS...THIS MAY BE AN EARLY (AND GOOD?) INDICATOR THAT RAIN
CHANCES GO DOWN ON SUNDAY.

[jasons2k]

I got a rock.

Too funny!!

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Upper pattern begins to change toward the end of the week with influences from both the tropics and mid latitudes affecting SE TX. Stout upper ridge gives way to trough/possible closed upper low over N TX Friday and Saturday while strong tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea is brought NW into the Gulf of Mexico off the Yucatan coast by 120hrs. GFS and ECMWF develop the tropical wave into a broad surface low over the southern Gulf of Mexico likely in response to downstream venting of the air mass from N TX upper level low/trough which should be moving into E TX and LA by Sunday. Pattern is not all that different from what spun up Barry, just further to the west. Initial thought would be anything that forms would be carried off to the N or NE ahead of upper trough over TX/LA.

Will need to keep close watch of potential for Gulf development and may need to start ramping up seas and winds Saturday and Sunday should model runs continue to suggest low pressure formation.

[Stratosphere747]

From Jeff:

Upper pattern begins to change toward the end of the week with influences from both the tropics and mid latitudes affecting SE TX. Stout upper ridge gives way to trough/possible closed upper low over N TX Friday and Saturday while strong tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea is brought NW into the Gulf of Mexico off the Yucatan coast by 120hrs. GFS and ECMWF develop the tropical wave into a broad surface low over the southern Gulf of Mexico likely in response to downstream venting of the air mass from N TX upper level low/trough which should be moving into E TX and LA by Sunday. Pattern is not all that different from what spun up Barry, just further to the west. Initial thought would be anything that forms would be carried off to the N or NE ahead of upper trough over TX/LA.

Will need to keep close watch of potential for Gulf development and may need to start ramping up seas and winds Saturday and Sunday should model runs continue to suggest low pressure formation.

I believe Jeff mentioned something to this effect as well in an update from last week?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS seemed to have backed off a bit on the western GOM low. This may only be temporary though. Let's see what the 0z runs have to say tonight..

[crazycajuncane]

Well winter and spring is over and it's back to Storm2k!

The weather here in South Louisiana has been crazy for the past month!

It rained for over 2 hours at my house on the north side of Lafayette last night, but the south end of town got no rain. It also rained Sunday night for about 30 minutes. It rained in various spots on Saturday night near mom's house on the south side of town... tree branches down.. strong winds and heavy rain. It all about drizzled at my house.

We've been seeing the most isolated rain pockets I've seen in quite a while.

Last monday all about 5 miles from South Lafayette there was a pocket of rain that kept training over the same area. Doppler estimated 12 - 14 inches in a matter of 4 - 6 hours. There was not a drop of rain at my house or much else in the whole area.

We've also been getting a lot of weather from the EAST! These late afternoon storms build around Baton Rouge and move towards Lafayette. These storms seem much stronger and give us a whole lot worse weather than the traditional West to East storms.

I think we've seen rain almost every day for the past month somewhere around here. Days where we have 20% chance of rain it rains all afternoon. Days of 50% chance of rain have seen spotty showers.

Very interesting weather pattern, because we've been fairly dry the last couple of years. Now it's been hot and humid and the minute the rain from yesterday gets soaked up it pours down today I bet!

Gotta love summer in South Louisiana!

[PTrackerLA]

It sure has been a return to "normal" conditions around here this spring and summer as opposed to the drought of the last two years. Our local met mentioned in his blog that as we've seen normal to above normal precipitation in the area over the past month or so it tends to cause more rain and showers to develop because there is more moisture in the soils. Seems like this feedback process is aiding in the storms that eventually get going every day around here. In my experience, storms that come from the north or northeast in the summer tend to be especially hefty with lots of lightning.

[crazycajuncane]

It sure has been a return to "normal" conditions around here this spring and summer as opposed to the drought of the last two years. Our local met mentioned in his blog that as we've seen normal to above normal precipitation in the area over the past month or so it tends to cause more rain and showers to develop because there is more moisture in the soils. Seems like this feedback process is aiding in the storms that eventually get going every day around here. In my experience, storms that come from the north or northeast in the summer tend to be especially hefty with lots of lightning.

And what's that I hear outside right now? Nice storm just about to roll in here!

[Extremeweatherguy]

strong storm rolling through my area right now. Frequent strong wind gusts, bursts of heavy rain and lightning all are being experienced. Top gusts likely into the 40-45mph range ATM.

[Yankeegirl]

I can hear the storm where you are EWG, but no rain here... Just a little thunder off to the east....

[Extremeweatherguy]

a small bit of storm damage to report...the strong gusts lifted a large outdoor umbrella up over a roof and blew it over 200 feet into a house during the storm today. That shows how powerful the winds were.

[vbhoutex]

We were between the two storms that happened yesterday. Got a few sprinkles. I know one thing. Someone left the heater on yesterday!! It was 96º here in Houston!!! clouds are starting to form now, so hopefully we can get some cooling showers this afternoon. Thermometer is already up to 90º here in the Galleria area.

[southerngale]

It feels like you're walking into an oven when you go outside. I don't know what the exact high was here yesterday, but officially at the airport it was 93°. At KFDM in Beaumont right now, it's 92° with a heat index of 104° and it's only 12:30.

[Extremeweatherguy]

IAH is currently at 91º with a heat index of 97º..the high today is forecast to reach 95º. Where is a cold front when you need one!

[jasons2k]

I think Houston summers are a "breeze" after spending many years up in the Metroplex. The air temp up there is often above 100 with heat indexes in the 110's.

[Extremeweatherguy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
212 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

TXZ200-213-214-238-132145-
LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
212 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER HARRIS...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LLINE FROM TEXAS CITY TO HOUSTON TO WINNIE. THESE STORMS WERE
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE
STRONGEST STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...SECONDARY
ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE.

[Yankeegirl]

why is it when there is interesting weather in the area, the radar is down?

[southerngale]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC361-132145-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0085.070613T2046Z-070613T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
346 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST ORANGE...ORANGE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BRIDGE CITY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BRIDGE CITY BY 415 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3016 9374 3013 9395 3000 9394 2998 9387
3000 9385 2999 9383 3000 9379 3006 9375

[southerngale]

Flood Statement

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

TXC361-140015-
414 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST ORANGE...ORANGE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 414 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BRIDGE CITY IN
ORANGE COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT APPROXIMATELY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE WARNED AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES MORE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3002 9391 2999 9382 3004 9376 3011 9375
3014 9379 3015 9388 3009 9392

$$

06

[Yankeegirl]

Its sunny here....