Atlantic INVEST 94L

[Praxus]

Here we go....

Invest 94L

[Beam]

Doubt we'll see a TD from this. Something to look at, nonetheless.

[Crankin]

Wow! Who'd a thunk? So much for the naysayers.

[Weatherfreak000]

Actually, if the broad low pressure persists for merely another 12-16 hours we will see a markedly positive improvement in shear in that area.


I'll have to say now, if the broad low still exists by say, 12 PM tomorrow, we'll see development from this system in my opinion.

[SouthFloridawx]

808
WHXX01 KWBC 150015
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070615 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070615 0000 070615 1200 070616 0000 070616 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 86.4W 19.8N 87.0W 20.8N 87.6W 21.9N 88.7W
BAMD 18.8N 86.4W 19.7N 86.1W 20.3N 86.5W 20.9N 87.3W
BAMM 18.8N 86.4W 19.6N 86.6W 20.3N 87.1W 21.1N 88.0W
LBAR 18.8N 86.4W 19.4N 86.4W 20.5N 86.5W 22.3N 86.6W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070617 0000 070618 0000 070619 0000 070620 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 89.6W 25.4N 91.9W 28.8N 92.6W 30.8N 91.0W
BAMD 21.5N 88.1W 22.9N 89.5W 25.1N 89.6W 28.0N 85.6W
BAMM 21.9N 88.9W 23.9N 90.4W 27.0N 90.3W 29.6N 87.2W
LBAR 24.4N 86.5W 28.3N 84.6W 30.8N 79.5W 31.7N 73.4W
SHIP 33KTS 33KTS 27KTS 22KTS
DSHP 33KTS 33KTS 28KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 86.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 86.8W DIRM12 = 5DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 86.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[DESTRUCTION5]

Models are Panhandlers

[Praxus]

Shear is modeled to be much less in 24 hrs

[windstorm99]

Right now the 18z GFS has a weak system into the panhandle and the CMC brings it into SW florida.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes, Looking at the upper level wind forecast through 48 hours earlier today I noticed that shear would relax. In my other post, I noted that even a weak upper level high may build over this system. It is going to move slowly, and the models diverging like that indicates, slow movement. Either way, I don't expect this to become a significant system, if at all.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yes, Looking at the upper level wind forecast through 48 hours earlier today I noticed that shear would relax. In my other post, I noted that even a weak upper level high may build over this system. It is going to move slowly, and the models diverging like that indicates, slow movement. Either way, I don't expect this to become a significant system, if at all.

If shear remains low and this travels slow over the loop current a nice TS is not out of the question..

[JonathanBelles]

I think it was quite expected. It might become a Barry like TD system, not much more. JMO, I think it will loiter for a time and eventually drift to the NE over S. Fl.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah, I agree with both of you guys, and if nothing more comes out of it... hopefully as gfs shows, we'll get tons of rain here in FL. I know the state needs it, but I think I need it for sanity reasons even more.

[Cyclone1]

Sanity reasons, for me. Although some rain would be nice... Dry as a bone here in Polk.

[windstorm99]

[windstorm99]

[Opal storm]

Looks like another good rain event for S FL, nothing more than that IMO.

[Weatherfreak000]

If this were to become Chantal, 94L would get shredded to nearly a remnant low before it could hit the Panhandle.



If three, severely shredded Tropical Storms giving much needed rain to Florida is a bad omen, then I wonder what could be good?

[Weatherfreak000]

Hmmm...strange....almost reminds me of a Cindy-like path.


(Although certainly no threat to my state regardless, we've have enough rain you guys in Florida can take it. Although we had almost record highs here this week).

[Rieyeuxs]

OK, I'll be stupid. Is this from the previously dead 93? It was getting close, but I haven't tracked it in the last 2 days.

[Cyclone1]

No it's a completley new system.