GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[windstorm99]

Right the caribbean is about the only area out there which might allow for something to pop up in the next couple of days.The nogaps model is showing some development down there in the sw caribbean takeing north towards cuba and possibly florida.Shear values right now are running at 40-60kts of windshear across the gulf which wont allow anything to develope which is great news in my opinion.The caribbean is a prime spot for development this time of the year.

[Meso]

[windstorm99]

Looks like the heat potential across the caribbean has expaned a bit.

[SkeetoBite]

Just came from my boat slip in Bradenton (Manatee River - empties into Tampa Bay). The water temp was 78F. This is down 3 degrees from about 10 days ago; before the strong easterlies blew for over a week straight.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Water temperature has skyrocketed to 87 degrees at clearwater
beach according to today's saint pete times...up from 78 last week...WOW!

[KWT]

Is it just me or does the 26C isotherm on the second looping graphic on Meso's post really expands NW really quickly?

[windstorm99]

The caribbean continues to warm while the gulf and areas of the florida coast are considerably cooler.

[Extremeweatherguy]

unlike what that above map is showing...water temperatures along the TX coast are actually near or above normal right now: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

It is currently 84.7-degrees at Galveston with an average June temperature of just 83-degrees. That means it is 1.7-degrees above normal at the present. The buoys offshore are also warmer than normal. Buoy 42002 is at 83.8-degrees with an average June temperature of 82-degrees...meaning it is 1.8-degrees above normal.

[jrod]

My guess is there is some lag time before the anomaly plot gets updated.

Here is the link to a bunch off Atlantic SST data:
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/sst.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Overall Atlantic sst's for the Atlantic for June 11th.

2007 has a warmer then Avg tropical Atlatnic,Caribbean, with a near normal Gulf of Mexico. Also a cooler then Avg western Atlantic. Warmest area's of 1.50 maybe 2.00c off the coast of africa and central Caribbean. Waters north of 36 north across the Atlantic are not even 70 by a buoy near 38 north of 66 degrees. Will we catch 2005 in short no. Will the Gulf and Caribbean keep warming yes. The Gulf I expect to warm to overall above avg maybe 1.00-1.50c above. Caribbean we will see areas closing on 2005. Western Atlatnic should warm up some to, maybe to near normal.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2007.gif
2006 Yes there was a El nino that formed lat season. But overall had just as warm Western Caribbean, and alos area northeast of the leewards. But cooler overall tropical Atlatnic and east Atlatnic. Gulf maybe slightly warmer for the date. Not much. But the big difference is western Atlatnic; near normal. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 0.2006.gif

2005 was simply Amazing SST wise most of the tropical Atlatnic,Caribbean,Gulf of Mexico was 1.00-3.50c. Yes the water was cooler over the Northwestern Atlatnic, but the overall sst set up was nothing less then amazing.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2005.gif

2004 had a very very warm western North Atlatnic; good reason for why Alex made the record it did. Also Eastern Gulf was 1.50-2.00+ above avg. Another reason why Charley bombed. Caribbean on the other hand was cooler then avg, with most of the tropical Atlatnic near or slightly above avg.

2003 very warm gulf 2.00-2.50c above, with cool tropical Atlatnic and avg Caribbean. Western Atlantic was way above normal.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 0.2003.gif

2002 warm gulf, western Atlatnic, cool caribbean-tropical Atlatnic.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 0.2002.gif


2001 Caribbean was below avg, with near normal over the gulf-tropical atlatnic. Western Atlantic above normal.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2001.gif


2000 Warm gulf and Western Atlatnic. Every where else way below avg.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 0.2000.gif

1999 warm caribbean-gulf. Cool tropical Atlatnic near normal western Atlatnic.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.1999.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

June 11th 2007 TCHP
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 7161at.jpg

ssts
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1atsst.png

June 11th 2006
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6162at.jpg

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atsst.png


2005
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5162at.jpg

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atsst.png

As you can see this year is no were close to 2005.

[wxmann_91]

I suspect the cold anomaly off the E coast could be the result of persistant upwelling from the ULL over the Western Atl attm.

Interesting to see the comparisons Matt, thanks. For a sec I was actually a bit worried.

Though the SST's are not as substantial this year, the TCHP is, which does raise some concern over the severity of any storm that is able to develop over the Caribbean. I suspect that once we get some substantial southerly winds from the Caribbean to advect the warm water northward to the open Atlantic, we could get SST's to shoot up quickly.

[SkeetoBite]

Just came from my boat slip in Bradenton (Manatee River - empties into Tampa Bay). The water temp was 78F. This is down 3 degrees from about 10 days ago; before the strong easterlies blew for over a week straight.

Five days later: Temp is up to 85.6F in the river (up from 78F), even warmer in the bay.

I remember the temps skyrocketing in 2005. Most of the gain in tempurature seemed to come in very short order. Not long from now the water at Egmont Key will be 91F again.

[tailgater]

Here's some sick water temps along the coast of LA. for anytime of year, read a little farther down past hourly obs.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42007
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mrsl1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lkpl1
a few inland obs
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=luml1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lkpl1

[windstorm99]

Just finished takeing a look at CPC'S 6 month SST forcast and they continue to suggest that the eastern atlantic will remain quite cool threw september.

[MWatkins]

Just finished takeing a look at CPC'S 6 month SST forcast and they continue to suggest that the eastern atlantic will remain quite cool threw september.

Interesting...by the looks of those maps they are expecting a full-fledged Nina event in the next few months...

MW

[txwatcher91]

WOW, things have really changed in the past week. Here is how much the SST's have changed in the past week.

June 7, 2007


June 15, 2007

[Extremeweatherguy]

That goes to show what this hot weather we are seeing along the gulf coast is capable of...especially when there are very few clouds and showers within the GOM to cool it down any.

[benny]

It is a little foreboding to have this type of distribution of heat content in the gulf of mexico for the new orleans area. I've been a big proponent of paying more attention to the SST in most cases, but if a hurricane were to take a Georges-like track shifted westward a little ways-- whoa. There is enough evidence out there that taking away the deep warm water can weaken a storm (if it "grew up" on the warmth), but on that track, yikes. Anyway, my weather nerd moment of the day since the tropics are quiet.

[cycloneye]

Those blues are expanding slowly.Look at the legend at the top and see what the blue color represent.