SE TX/SW LA Discussion Thread - Heavy Rainfall Threat

[Extremeweatherguy]

storms and associated outflow boundry are moving in qucikly from the NW ( http://tinyurl.com/32nuwo ). As these storms and the outflow boundry meet up with the cells over Harris county and the unstable airmass, I think we could see an explosion of activity.


*Edited by sg to shorten link

[Ptarmigan]

storms and associated outflow boundry are moving in qucikly from the NW ( http://tinyurl.com/32nuwo ). As these storms and the outflow boundry meet up with the cells over Harris county and the unstable airmass, I think we could see an explosion of activity.

I expect lots of heavy rain this afternoon.



*Edited by sg to shorten link inside the quote

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

TXC201-152315-
314 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STREET FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR DOWNTOWN HOUSTON. MEDIA
REPORTS FEEDER ROAD FLOODING NORTH OF THE CITY OF HOUSTON...BETWEEN
THE HEIGHTS AND GREENSPOINT AREA. THIS AREA RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RAIN YESTERDAY OF UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. BECAUSE OF
THIS ANTECEDENT RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL ONLY EXACERBATE
THE FLOODING SITUATION IN DOWNTOWN AND NORTH OF HOUSTON METRO
THROUGH THE RUSH HOUR PUSH.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO CREEKS AND BAYOUS...DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
ADDITIONALLY...FLOODING MAY OCCUR ON...STREETS...FRONTAGE ROADS...AND
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES. AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE WATER COVERS THE GROUND!
IF ENCOUNTERING WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Yankeegirl]

Please tell me that wasnt it... We didnt even get any rain here today!!! Its sunny humid and hot!!!

[JenBayles]

Yankee - yeah, I think that was it- for today anyway. Another box of rocks.

[JenBayles]

It appeared that just as things were really getting going here on the west side, a strong outflow boundary swept in and just blew the storms apart. DRAT!

[southerngale]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
438 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

TXZ180>182-201-215-216-152245-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...
LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
438 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007


...STRONG STORMS ENTERING SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM ST AUGUSTINE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST TO KINGWOOD. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE
EAST AROUND 25 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH TAYLOR AND HARDIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

They meant Tyler* county, not Taylor.

[jasons2k]

Nothing here but a few sprinkles - the line went up just to my east

[Yankeegirl]

Maybe later tonight or tomorrow, the rain chances are still quite high.... ?

[JenBayles]

So we have 50% tonite, 60% tomorrow, and 50% tomorrow night. Can someone explain what is driving the high overnight POPS? I'm not seeing anything on satellite that looks particularly interesting right now.

[JenBayles]

Wow! Have a look at the San Angelo radar. Is that the mess that might get Houston tomorrow? I have to laugh - some friends of ours are camping at Guadalupe State Park with the expectation of tubing the river all weekend. Looks like they may need to tube out of the park by Sunday....

[Yankeegirl]

Wow jen, that looks like a nasty line.... Prolly gonna be here overnight just sometime.... Fun!!

[jasons2k]

It sure looks intense out there:

[jasons2k]

YEAH - the HGX radar is back up!! It's even showing some storms moving NW towards Galveston bay from the Gulf!

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
928 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SOME CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LATE THIS EVENING. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLIER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE RADAR
IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. YES...THE HGX RADAR IS
NOW BACK UP. QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST TX WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND IF THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST TX. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NOW. SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW BUT EXPECT
SOME VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND ENHANCE UPDRAFT MECHANISMS BRIEFLY.

[southerngale]

Not the best radar for detail, but a nice overall shot of the stuff out west and its speed and development:


[web]http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USTX1200&animate=true&enlarge=true[/web]


Link

[Ptarmigan]

Radar shows some intense storms west of San Antonio and Austin. Radar estimates as much as 4" per hour in a relatively large area! I expect they will be here by morning.

[crazycajuncane]

Hopefully you're near Comeaux High School, crazy! It didn't rain a drop at Pinhook/Kaliste Saloom. Heard the thunder though. The cloud cover felt nice, dropped the temps a good bit.

Nope I am at I-10 AND 1-49

It rained again today quite a bit. Rob's 8 Day looks like 8 days more of rain!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all the HGX warning area for today. 1-2" rain totals will be common with a few spots seeing up to 6" (according to the watch).

[Stratosphere747]

Well your not going to see a FFW that covers this much of Texas that often. Could be a fun day!



FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
441 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SAGS SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDES ABUNDANT LIFT TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE AND THEREFORE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
ARE LIKELY IN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE COMMON TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING
3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE WATCH OR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA WILL NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR INTO SUNDAY.