Atlantic INVEST 94L

[wxman57]

I can't wait for the graphical TWO from the NHC on july the 15th.

Example of what its going to look like....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo-example/20 ... wo_atl.gif

You can read about more here.

Yeah, I saw that mentioned last winter. We've been doing a graphical oultook for 10 years (ever since PCs allowed it and the Internet became pouplar), and a video version for 5 years. I seem to remember the NHC experimenting with streaming video reports a year or two ago. What ever became of that? The government is just a bit slow to catch on. It does help to graphically identify the disturbances you're discussing.

[sunnyday]

Nothing going on around here. This "storm" is another case of much ado about nothing, thank goodness. However, we could have used the loads of rain that were predicted to be here today.

[Chacor]

New blowup:

[windstorm99]

No worries here just convergence going on and pressures are quite high in the area.

[miamicanes177]

As far as the Jeff Master's comment goes, it doesn't mean too bad to me.


A "Distinct Possibility" and "20% chance" seems almost the same to me. Distinct Possibility really doesn't seem that much more intense, I think I can let this one go as just more creative editing so his logic was easier to understand.

Ok, but he always did selective editing on Barry. He first said he did not believe it would have winds of over 50mph. An hour or so later the hurricane hunters fround a 67kt flight level wind, and Master quickly edited his post to say it likely had 60mph winds, but "I do not believe it will reach hurricane strength". THEN...a few hours later, he edited his post again to say, "NHC is justified in bringing the intensity up to just 50 mph in their 8pm advisory", because the 67kts found were not representative of the storm.

Jeff Masters has just done selective editing to his "2nd half of June" tropical forecast. He issued his outlook yesterday giving a 40% probability of a tropical storm forming in the next two weeks. Today, he has gone back into his post and edited that to a 30% probability. Again, he should admit to everyone when he edits his posts. Perhaps he should leave in his original words and include the edit in red letters. He bashes the colorado folks nonstop about their verification and someone needs to hold Masters accountable. It's easy to be right 100% of the time when all you have to do is go back and edit your posts without telling anyone. I'll bet in a week he changes the 30% to 20% if nothing forms.

[HURAKAN]

Now shifted to the NW Bahamas.

[sunnyday]

I feel unsure about predicitons these days. First, Barry wasn't even supposed to form, and then yesterday on our local news, we were told to expect significant rain, downpours even, today. We got not one drop. I know weather is an inexact science, but I wish it weren't, especially during hurricane season.

[Thunder44]

Now shifted to the NW Bahamas.

They are now focused on weak broad low that has formed along the surface trof, just north of the Grand Bahama, from looking at the bouys. Also a 1015mb low shows up on the NCEP surface analysis:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

Now shifted to the NW Bahamas.

They are now focused on weak broad low that has seems that formed, along the surface trof, just north of the Grand Bahama, from looking at the bouys. Also a 1015mb low shows up on the NCEP surface analysis:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

Exactly where i said this morning..

[Damar91]

Just a stupid question, why even focus on this? Doesn't it seem like it will just follow the trough out to sea?

Thanks,
David

[HURAKAN]

Here is my stupid answer, there nothing else in the tropics worldwide!!!! Invest 96W looks a lot worse than this.

[vacanechaser]

As far as the Jeff Master's comment goes, it doesn't mean too bad to me.


A "Distinct Possibility" and "20% chance" seems almost the same to me. Distinct Possibility really doesn't seem that much more intense, I think I can let this one go as just more creative editing so his logic was easier to understand.

Ok, but he always did selective editing on Barry. He first said he did not believe it would have winds of over 50mph. An hour or so later the hurricane hunters fround a 67kt flight level wind, and Master quickly edited his post to say it likely had 60mph winds, but "I do not believe it will reach hurricane strength". THEN...a few hours later, he edited his post again to say, "NHC is justified in bringing the intensity up to just 50 mph in their 8pm advisory", because the 67kts found were not representative of the storm.

Jeff Masters has just done selective editing to his "2nd half of June" tropical forecast. He issued his outlook yesterday giving a 40% probability of a tropical storm forming in the next two weeks. Today, he has gone back into his post and edited that to a 30% probability. Again, he should admit to everyone when he edits his posts. Perhaps he should leave in his original words and include the edit in red letters. He bashes the colorado folks nonstop about their verification and someone needs to hold Masters accountable. It's easy to be right 100% of the time when all you have to do is go back and edit your posts without telling anyone. I'll bet in a week he changes the 30% to 20% if nothing forms.

great catch... try and remember to watch and see if he does or if it changes sooner or what have you... all good points you made about colorado and gray... its funny how the past few years people praised them on their forecats and made a big deal out of it, and as soon as he had two years where they were off, 2005-2006, both wrong to the extremes in terms of numbers forecast, they start bashing him about the different forecasts as the season progresses... things change, predictors change and have in the past. and he has raised or lowered his over all numbers with those changes...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

Just a stupid question, why even focus on this? Doesn't it seem like it will just follow the trough out to sea?

Thanks,
David

i will answer your question,, because things change and can change quickly... i remember a lot of people on this board jumping up and down about barry, saying it had no chance... even when the nhc says there is a reason to watch it, people around here seem to think they can out forecast the experts... some were saying there would be nothing in the area after yesterday afternoon... however, if you look there now, there is still convection there no matter how much or how big, they were wrong.. the upper levels did get blown off to the northeast, but it seems that something was left behind and now that we are in the season, if it sits there long enough, upper levels will change and be more favorable... you just never know...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Robjohn53]

I see both sides to this matter, sometimes when we think somthing is going to go one way, cause of the condtions
and they change it's understood we might want to change our minds. But it seems much better to just admit this is why i
chose it this way, then make the correction. But at least say why instead of changing it as if it never happened. Like
quoted so many times "Were not perfect nor are we gonna be", but we are human and things do change all the time with
this line of work. I personally admire everyone that can predict these thing beings i am not no where as smart at this
but because of being able to read and learn from all of you, one day i will be able to.


Thanks to all of you

Robjohn53

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Surface low at 27 north/77 west...Appears to be a surface trough from southwest to northeast into the Caribbean.

[miamicanes177]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS
INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE TROUGH
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cyclone1]

I never thought I would say it, but I'm sick of 94L. Either form or don't form, honestly. I can't wait for this one to die so we can watch something else.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Low pressure wise it doe's not look that bad; but it FSU data shows it as cold core or extratropical. Also the trough southwest to northeast could be turning into a frontal system as the system strengthens. So pretty much killing the systems chances of becoming anything, it gots around 12 hours of warm water. Don't really think it has much chance.

[Berwick Bay]

I never thought I would say it, but I'm sick of 94L. Either form or don't form, honestly. I can't wait for this one to die so we can watch something else.

I know the feeling Cyclone, but oftentimes that how it works in the tropics.

[Aric Dunn]

OK OK OK ... ummm .. I know that the shear is way to strong to really get anything going .. but ... I say but.. the low is there( near the Bahamas) and if at anytime the shear were to lighten up it would really have to be watched... but anyway.. yeah..