Atlantic INVEST 94L

[Aric Dunn]

now also remember.. that for barry that most of the models has hybrid.. but barry ended up being tropical.. and if it does decide to move fast enough that would also help.. the low level steering still seems to be weak and the system is in between to ridges.. (kind of a col) the mid atlantic ridge and the ridge Se of the bahamas,..nogaps shows some evidence of a low that moves east for a time then s then back west but dissipates it. although its not well defined or showing up really on FSu site... but something similar could take shape.. it very well could be cold core or a hybrid.. but need to watch ..

[jrod]

I feel unsure about predicitons these days. First, Barry wasn't even supposed to form, and then yesterday on our local news, we were told to expect significant rain, downpours even, today. We got not one drop. I know weather is an inexact science, but I wish it weren't, especially during hurricane season.

Don't rely on the local news for a weather forecast!!

There is a 'swirl' east of Palm Beach and Just north of the Bahamas that is clearly visible on the satellite. Im suprised, but this blob looks nothing like a tropical feature to me. There is too much shear but this has been one persistant area, I'm gonna be watchin this thing on my drinking breaks.

[Aric Dunn]

I feel unsure about predicitons these days. First, Barry wasn't even supposed to form, and then yesterday on our local news, we were told to expect significant rain, downpours even, today. We got not one drop. I know weather is an inexact science, but I wish it weren't, especially during hurricane season.

Don't rely on the local news for a weather forecast!!

There is a 'swirl' east of Palm Beach and Just north of the Bahamas that is clearly visible on the satellite. Im suprised, but this blob looks nothing like a tropical feature to me. There is too much shear but this has been one persistant area, I'm gonna be watchin this thing on my drinking breaks.

your drinking breaks!! lol sounds fun

[cpdaman]

Aric would the steering patterns take it more to the north east then NNE into that low spinning south of NE.... or will it be left behind

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[cpdaman]

also watch for anymore of these little lows to spin up further to the sw

the shear will be abating as the low south of new england pulls out (at least i think)

[sunnyday]

I appreciate what you are saying about not relying on local news for weather forecasts, but the weather channel agreed this time! Both were so wrong...

[Aric Dunn]

Aric would the steering patterns take it more to the north east then NNE into that low spinning south of NE.... or will it be left behind

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

i would say more of a ene drift.. but at the lower to mid level.. there is a bit of a col.. which is an area between two high pressures where the steering is weak..
its hard to say.. the low at the surface seems to be stationary.. if it does not lift out with this trough then it probaly hang around longer.. lol .. like it has not been around long enough ..

[Damar91]

Almost reminds me of a Jennne situation from 2004....

[Aric Dunn]

also watch for anymore of these little lows to spin up further to the sw

the shear will be abating as the low south of new england pulls out (at least i think)

the shear in the area as dropped a lot since this morning and the trough over the mid atlantic starts to lift out slowly.. but we will have to see what happens after it leaves we may see some less shear for a short time..

[Aric Dunn]

we may even see a ese drift as the ridge over the ohio valley area moves east

[cpdaman]

however i just checked out the afternoon miami disc and they say the gfs calls for the low to slide out toward the west atlantic low south of new england, however i do see the ESE movement (however can't tell if this is an accurate reflection of the low)

[Chacor]

955
ABNT20 KNHC 170214
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH...AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

Give it up, folks. All that's there is thunderstorm activity associated with a weakening upper low that's being drawn northeastward up a frontal boundary into a much larger extratropical low. Surface pressures in the NW Bahamas are in the 1018mb range, not to mention the high wind shear and dry air flowing in from behind the front. In 36 hours, what's left of these thunderstorms will be half way across the Atlantic absorbed by a an extratropical low.

[sevenleft]

Give it up, folks. All that's there is thunderstorm activity associated with a weakening upper low that's being drawn northeastward up a frontal boundary into a much larger extratropical low. Surface pressures in the NW Bahamas are in the 1018mb range, not to mention the high wind shear and dry air flowing in from behind the front. In 36 hours, what's left of these thunderstorms will be half way across the Atlantic absorbed by a an extratropical low.

Its June 16th. Kudos if you maintain your sanity till the end of the month...

[Cyclone1]

Give it up, folks. All that's there is thunderstorm activity associated with a weakening upper low that's being drawn northeastward up a frontal boundary into a much larger extratropical low. Surface pressures in the NW Bahamas are in the 1018mb range, not to mention the high wind shear and dry air flowing in from behind the front. In 36 hours, what's left of these thunderstorms will be half way across the Atlantic absorbed by a an extratropical low.

I agree, nothing will ever form out of 94L. It's all over but the cryin'. And if you cry because a tropical cyclone doesn't form, please, go get help.

[wxman57]

Give it up, folks. All that's there is thunderstorm activity associated with a weakening upper low that's being drawn northeastward up a frontal boundary into a much larger extratropical low. Surface pressures in the NW Bahamas are in the 1018mb range, not to mention the high wind shear and dry air flowing in from behind the front. In 36 hours, what's left of these thunderstorms will be half way across the Atlantic absorbed by a an extratropical low.

Its June 16th. Kudos if you maintain your sanity till the end of the month...

It will be a challenge.

[hurricanefloyd5]

IS SOME KIND OF TROPICAL SYSTEM GOING TO FORM OUTTA THIS MESS????????????

[Cyclone1]

IS SOME KIND OF TROPICAL SYSTEM GOING TO FORM OUTTA THIS MESS????????????

Nope.

[hurricanefloyd5]

nope even a subtropical??????????????

[Cyclone1]

nope even a subtropical??????????????

Doubt it.