Next Storm Formation Contest
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 136
- Joined: Sun Jun 17, 2007 9:36 am
- Stephanie
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23843
- Age: 63
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
- Location: Glassboro, NJ
Re: Next Storm Formation Contest
I'm thinking once again around the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan around July 1 - 3.
0 likes
- MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5903
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: Next Storm Formation Contest
Here is a wild guess: First hurricane of the season forms July 4th in GOM.....MGC
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145930
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Next Storm Formation Contest
MGC wrote:Here is a wild guess: First hurricane of the season forms July 4th in GOM.....MGC
MGC,I think that you posted at the wrong poll as this one is for the next Tropical Storm formation and this poll


0 likes
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
- vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29113
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
Re: Next Storm Formation Contest
20. N, 86.0W, 06/23-06/26 Will cross the NE Yuc into the GOM and become the season's 1st Hurricane. Landfall S. central LA as a CAT1
0 likes
- 'CaneFreak
- Category 5
- Posts: 1486
- Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
- Location: New Bern, NC
Re: Next Storm Formation Contest
My guess is July 10th...it will be a slow mover in the western Carribean and may become our first hurricane of the season. will probably form south of Jamaica....whatever the coordinates are in that general area 

0 likes
- weatherwindow
- Category 4
- Posts: 904
- Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:48 am
- Location: key west/ft lauderdale
Re: Next Storm Formation Contest
From seeing this sort of thing with earthquake prediction, you really need:
1) To define a hit - is it an official NHC TD, or named storm, initial advisory?
2) Precise time window, and note whether it's UTC time, Eastern time, etc.
3) You really need a box of latitude and longitude or a radius around a specific lat-lon.
Really only takes an extra few seconds to do the above.
IDEALLY, you'd have 4), the chance you're right by dumb luck - there's sufficient software and websites out there that with maybe 15-30 minutes of work, you can look at the past 50 or 100 year database and count how many formations were in that area in the same time period in previous years. If you do hit, this gives an impression of how "impressive" it is. Once you get around early September you can start defining boxes that have a 50%+ chance of a storm forming randomly even over a 3-4 day period, I'd guess (without studying the issue carefully.)
1) To define a hit - is it an official NHC TD, or named storm, initial advisory?
2) Precise time window, and note whether it's UTC time, Eastern time, etc.
3) You really need a box of latitude and longitude or a radius around a specific lat-lon.
Really only takes an extra few seconds to do the above.
IDEALLY, you'd have 4), the chance you're right by dumb luck - there's sufficient software and websites out there that with maybe 15-30 minutes of work, you can look at the past 50 or 100 year database and count how many formations were in that area in the same time period in previous years. If you do hit, this gives an impression of how "impressive" it is. Once you get around early September you can start defining boxes that have a 50%+ chance of a storm forming randomly even over a 3-4 day period, I'd guess (without studying the issue carefully.)
0 likes
- DanKellFla
- Category 5
- Posts: 1291
- Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:02 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, Florida
Re: Next Storm Formation Contest
I have to agree, off of N. Florida in the next 3 days. If it happens, 3 named storms before July 1st is nuts.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Bobd33, Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], wileytheartist and 98 guests