Next Storm Formation Contest

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NcentralFlaguy
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#21 Postby NcentralFlaguy » Sun Jun 17, 2007 6:56 pm

Thank you very much im sure i will!!
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Stephanie
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#22 Postby Stephanie » Sun Jun 17, 2007 7:10 pm

I'm thinking once again around the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan around July 1 - 3.
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#23 Postby MGC » Sun Jun 17, 2007 7:20 pm

Here is a wild guess: First hurricane of the season forms July 4th in GOM.....MGC
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 17, 2007 7:38 pm

MGC wrote:Here is a wild guess: First hurricane of the season forms July 4th in GOM.....MGC


MGC,I think that you posted at the wrong poll as this one is for the next Tropical Storm formation and this poll :rarrow: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=95509 is for the first hurricane. :)
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#25 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 18, 2007 8:14 pm

Anyone else?
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#26 Postby HeeBGBz » Mon Jun 18, 2007 9:32 pm

Caribbean
19N 84W
July 5-8
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#27 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:19 pm

20. N, 86.0W, 06/23-06/26 Will cross the NE Yuc into the GOM and become the season's 1st Hurricane. Landfall S. central LA as a CAT1
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#28 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Jun 18, 2007 10:38 pm

My guess is July 10th...it will be a slow mover in the western Carribean and may become our first hurricane of the season. will probably form south of Jamaica....whatever the coordinates are in that general area :wink:
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#29 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:14 am

13.0n-58.0w...just east of the windwards-july21-31
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#30 Postby Meso » Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:34 am

I am going to say.. Off Florida East coast in 70 hours =)
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#31 Postby Derecho » Tue Jun 19, 2007 4:52 am

From seeing this sort of thing with earthquake prediction, you really need:

1) To define a hit - is it an official NHC TD, or named storm, initial advisory?

2) Precise time window, and note whether it's UTC time, Eastern time, etc.

3) You really need a box of latitude and longitude or a radius around a specific lat-lon.

Really only takes an extra few seconds to do the above.

IDEALLY, you'd have 4), the chance you're right by dumb luck - there's sufficient software and websites out there that with maybe 15-30 minutes of work, you can look at the past 50 or 100 year database and count how many formations were in that area in the same time period in previous years. If you do hit, this gives an impression of how "impressive" it is. Once you get around early September you can start defining boxes that have a 50%+ chance of a storm forming randomly even over a 3-4 day period, I'd guess (without studying the issue carefully.)
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#32 Postby DanKellFla » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:21 pm

August 4th, just north of Cuba.
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#33 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:26 pm

i say anytime between now and November 30th!! some where in the atlantic
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Re:

#34 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:28 pm

Meso wrote:I am going to say.. Off Florida East coast in 70 hours =)


I'd say, I agree.
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Re: Next Storm Formation Contest

#35 Postby jrod » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:51 pm

I have to agree, off of N. Florida in the next 3 days. If it happens, 3 named storms before July 1st is nuts.
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Re:

#36 Postby punkyg » Wed Jun 20, 2007 3:54 pm

Meso wrote:I am going to say.. Off Florida East coast in 70 hours =)
I agree with meso :ggreen:
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