Keep your Eyes on the EC Trough

['CaneFreak]

Currently, there is an upper level trough digging in the midwestern US causing the eruption of many many thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley and the Southern United States. Over the last several hours, bits and pieces of this upper level trough have been breaking off and heading off in different directions. The northern end of this trough appears to have the most energy. This is rather dangerous when it comes to tropical formation. As this trough moves east, the southern end still has enough energy to spark off showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf region. Why is this dangerous? Because many storms have formed in the month of June on the tail ends of fronts and troughs due to a turning in the atmosphere caused by the upper-to mid level interaction of the trough with the t-storms as they plow to the east. Several of the models this afternoon changed their tune and show a possible low forming at the tail end of this trough. Again, frontogenesis is the main cause of MANY TROPICAL CYCLONES that have formed in the month of June. Keep your eyes on the GULF and the interaction of the t-storms with the trough as it moves east. This could be our next storm.

Watch this loop carefully

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

['CaneFreak]

These are a few of the many models that agree with my current solution. All I am saying is keep your eyes open. Things change rather quickly in the tropics. Shear is on the decrease in southern Texas and Mexico and that is spreading east with the trough....ridge builds in behind the front and all heck breaks loose...could we have an Alex or Gaston type situation setting up? Who knows?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
12Z CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
18Z GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
12Z NOGAPS

[HeeBGBz]

Peekaboo!

Today was full of these lovelies.

[beachbum_al]

Don't mean to hijack your thread but we were having so rough weather here this afternoon in South Alabama. Of course we need the rain here.

['CaneFreak]

no problem

Hope you get your rain.

[flwxwatcher]

Yes, models have be sniffing out energy dropping into the Gulf from the Trof splitting.. Interesting to see if we can get a Danny of 97 type development this week in the Gulf.