Low press. off/on FL coast

[ronjon]

Wow, that's a heckuva vort max spinning toward the gulf coast SE of Mobile. Hmmm....this might get interesting with 82 deg water

[Weatherfreak14]

This actually might get pretty intresting everything mariginally fav. for some devlopment. IMO i thing this may have a short peroid of time to develop but only a very small peroid of time. Either way it develops or not it will still bring rain to an area that wants it badly.

[Weatherfreak000]

The GFS,NGAPS and CMC are all aligned on a low forming off of Carolinas with the current run.


Unfortunately, Wind Shear isn't going to be favorable for another good 60 hours or so in that area.


The GFS has the best solution to reflect the best Wind Shear scenario, however it doesn't give the system a good chance to develop and moves it quickly North.

The CMC is developing the low pressure fast and in a wind shear environment...i'd have to say probably the least likely scenario to pan out. However it DOES keep the low pressure area alive in this area until shear lessens..therefore it's still a logical idea for tropical development.

The NGAPS seems to have the best possible scenario. It keeps the area low and developing until 72 Hours out, when shear will be favorable.


Needless to say, I think IF a low forms, it's a footrace to see with of these scenarios it will blend with. I can honestly say in my opinion if the NGAPS scenario pans out Chantal could indeed form by this weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually as it looks right now there is a very intresting Low about to emerge off the east coast of florida. it has a surface low and may actually need to be watched.. over night and tomorrow... i say this because one.. the models ( but not much) 2. the LLc or low actually has a tight center .. i would think otherwise if it were borad but this time a year we often see systems like this emerge off the east coast in this area and develope.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html" target="_blank

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

although not really important or worth noting .. i will just because im bored... as the center or llc past over gainsville the pressure dropped 3 millibars ... lol

so its about a 1012 mb low... omg so exciting

[jdray]

Pressure dropped 3mb here in Jax.

It has thrown some nice heavy "semi-tropical" style rainfall here. (live in the area, you know what I mean)

Be interesting to see what it spins up to.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure dropped 3mb here in Jax.

It has thrown some nice heavy "semi-tropical" style rainfall here. (live in the area, you know what I mean)

Be interesting to see what it spins up to.

yep its still too your west ..... should drop a little more.. yeah im in Daytona beach


and the shear is not all that bad....

[windstorm99]

It will be of the coast soon....

[Cyclone1]

WHOA, thank God for radar! Look at that spin, man! Whoa it's like, it's like wow. (please excuse me)

[Aric Dunn]

It will be of the coast soon....

yep .. its going to be something too watch .. not for any real major development .. but interesting anyway

[Aric Dunn]

WHOA, thank God for radar! Look at that spin, man! Whoa it's like, it's like wow. (please excuse me)

no prob.. lol \

[windstorm99]

Here's another view...

[jrod]

Wow, this just kind of snuck up. Look at all the attentions the swirl is getting before it makes it to the water. Only the gulf stream is warm enough to support significant development. Any guess when they'll make this an invest?(just for fun, i know it won't be an entity if/until it sustains convection over the water)

[Cyclone1]

Wow, this just kind of snuck up. Look at all the attentions the swirl is getting before it makes it to the water. Only the gulf stream is warm enough to support significant development. Any guess when they'll make this an invest?(just for fun, i know it won't be an entity if/until it sustains convection over the water)

Ehh... tomorrow afternoon, 11:00AM-2:00PM EDT (complete shot in the dark)

[punkyg]

Wow, this just kind of snuck up. Look at all the attentions the swirl is getting before it makes it to the water. Only the gulf stream is warm enough to support significant development. Any guess when they'll make this an invest?(just for fun, i know it won't be an entity if/until it sustains convection over the water)

Ehh... tomorrow afternoon, 11:00AM-2:00PM EDT (complete shot in the dark)

I say around 5am tomorrow morning.
now that would make me happy

[caneman]

Funny if this verifies. That would make the NAM darn near 2 for 2. I know they said warm core in NE Gulf but looking at it now and they kind of weather we're get here is seems very much like a tropical system. NAM gets beat up so much seems like a little credit is due. I like the underdog.

[Aric Dunn]

we will just have to wait and see

[punkyg]

Right now its looks maybe like a tropical depression, but thats just my google eyes looking at it. What it needs is some more convection and to sit over water for a couple of days. Just hope the shear don't rise or we may not have a depression and we all know we have been bored for weeks and we don't want be bored anymore!

[StormTracker]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 201830
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...
DOPPLER RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
DECREASING TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA IS DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE (AS EVIDENCED BY MORNING SOUNDINGS). THIS COUPLED
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL LOW WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY ANEMIC ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...LATEST RADAR
FRAMES INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
EAST OF AN KOCF-KSGJ LINE WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING REMAIN
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

WELL...MODELS HAVE DONE A 180 WRT PLACEMENTS OF UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. INITIAL MODEL RUNS
(ESPECIALLY THE GFS SOLN) EJECTED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...RESULTING IN DRIER FLOW REGIME
(DUE TO ESTABLISHING NORTHERLY WINDS). LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BLOCKING FORWARD PROGRESS OF UPSTREAM
FEATURES. IN ADDITION...PLACEMENT OF JET STREAM TO THE NORTH WILL
ALSO ATTEMPT TO IMPEDE PROGRESS OF LOCAL WEATHER FEATURES (I.E.,
ATTEMPTING TO CUT-OFF LOCAL WEATHER FEATURES. LOW-LEVEL IS NOW
EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO (APALACHEE
BAY) THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE GRADIENT POSITIONING OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. HAVE MADE SOME WHOLESALE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST (SCATTERED) POPS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

[jaxfladude]

It will be of the coast soon....

That is some big "EYE"