UK Met Office 2007 Hurricane Season Forecast

[windstorm99]

Indeed continues to look good for systems coming from the east if these trofs of low pressure continue into the coming months.I think its interesting that sometimes when these type of patterns get established they can persist for a long time.I really think peoples perspective was ruined with such an active season in 2005, now anything less than 20 is a quiet season.

Its really important to not focus on numbers predicted as it only takes one system to ruin lives.Adrian

www.Adrian's Weather.com

[NDG]

2005 was a neutral ENSO, so this year could still be busy, UK MET is calling for the cooling of the Atlantic, that could be as a bad forecast as the forecast of cooling of the Equatorial Pacific.

What effect does a cooling Atlantic normally have on the Bermuda High?

A weaker Bermuda high may allow a number of hurricanes to recurve by the eastern Caribbean Sea if the current pattern persists into August/September. HOWEVER, without an El Nino and the resulting wind shear and sinking air in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, there will be storms that slip underneath the east coast trof and develop in the central Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. Such development could spell trouble for the Gulf Coast. Just remember that the pattern is always changing out there. It will often come down to a matter of timing as to whether a developing storm is a "fish" or if someone gets slammed.

Exactly, though we don't have La Nina now or in the immediate future, like 2005 we certainly don't have an El Nino that would create hostile conditions in the Caribbean and GOM, and that's exactly what we don't have have right now in the Caribbean, shear numbers & surface pressures have been running below climatology, so FL & Gulfcoast still need to keep their guards up.

[btangy]

Although I can see the logic behind fewer storms, the ratio of storms that do become intense (major hurricanes) might be above average this year due to the weak La Nina persisting in the E Pac. The reasoning being that once storms do form, the large scale environment will be on average conducive for strengthening.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting outlook by them,which if it verifies,would throw to the window in a relativly big way,what the experts(The Colorado Team,NOAA and TSR haved being saying in their outlooks) One of the factors that they were counting on was the birth of La Nina during the summer and fall months,a factor that we know now will not verifie according to what CPC said in it's monday update and to some extent what BoM (The Aussies) are saying too.The only thing to do is to wait and see how all evolves as the meat of the season approaches in 6 weeks and after the season is over,which of the expert private firms,goverment and Universitys were correct.

I thought that Phil & Dr. Gray would be lowering their predicted number of named storms with the last update, but they didn't. Their analog and statistical schemes forecast between 13-16 named storms. Last year they were around 10-11 named storms and did very well. Clearly, there will be no La Nina until August or September at the earliest. The model they used for the last prediction forecast that we'd already be in a La Nina by late June. So it may be more likely than not that the season total will be 16 or less named storms.

Regardless, even if the prediction was for another 2-3 named storms, it just takes one bad hit to make for a very bad season. Many really destructive hurricanes have struck the U.S. in seasons with under 10 named storms. Don't let your guard up, particularly if you're in the SE U.S. and Carolinas.

Excellent point wxman57.