Wave in Caribbean Sea

[boca]

Looks like most of that wave will pass south of Puerto Rico.Is this the first wave threat of the year for PR?

[cycloneye]

What exactly is a wave axis?

Is the center of a wave where the winds shift from NE in front of the axis and to SE in the baskside.

So its basically like a front?

Yes,except for the lack of cold air.

[Frank2]

Here's a good explanation of tropical waves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_wave"

[cycloneye]

Looks like most of that wave will pass south of Puerto Rico.Is this the first wave threat of the year for PR?

I can't tell excatly how many wave axis haved passed thru Puerto Rico because I was on vacation during the first 2 weeks of June.But before I went away,2 very weak waves passed thru the island in late May.

[windstorm99]

NHC 2:05PM Discussion...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE AREA. SEE ABOVE. A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 75W WITH 20 KT TRADEWINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W DUE TO THE ITCZ ALONG 9N. THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W HAS TROPICAL MOISTURE DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N50W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS E OF 70W. EXPECT NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE ERN
CARIBBEAN TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND ITCZ ALONG 9N.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191916
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST TUE JUN 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND THEN PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS IS NOT AN EASY FORECAST DUE TO THE MANY
PARAMETERS UNDER CONSIDERATION BUT THE TREND IS TOWARD A WET
WEDNESDAY AS IT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED A MOST OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED FROM SURFACE TO
AROUND 800 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STABLE AIR TONGUE AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL WAVE ESTIMATED ALONG 62 WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATED SOME HAZE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DRY TONGUE. COMPARING UPPER LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE...THE 200 MB STREAMLINES/WINDS ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FOUND A GOOD AGREEMENT. THEN I WILL BE
CONSIDERING THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTED BY THIS GUIDANCE.
GFS SUGGEST VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE AT 200 AND 250 MB.
THEN ONLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO RELOCATE THE
ARE WHERE I BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. THEN THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MOST OF PUERTO RICO WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

THE FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATES THE TREND FROM THE DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THE WAVE TO A WETTER AIRMASS BY WEDNESDAY AT 18Z.

A DRIER WEATHER REGIME WILL TAKE PLACE THEREAFTER. SAL ANALYSIS
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SAHARAN DUST CLOUD WITH
A LEADING EDGE NEAR 58 WEST BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAY BECOME CHOPPY WITH THE PASS OF THE WAVE MAINLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND LIGHTNING IS
ALSO LIKELY FOR THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED BEFORE...IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS
WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0" target="_blank

This San Juan NWS AFD is for our fellow members who live in Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques and the U.S. and British V.I about what to expect from this wave.As I have being saying in this thread,this is a normal wave for June so nothing out of the ordinary is expected.

[msbee]

send us some of that rain Luis
St. Maarten won't get anything from this I don't think, even though the local forecast is calling for storms.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY...HEAVY AT TIMES
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 58W-65W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN PUERTO RICO ON WED. A WIND
SURGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE
THU THROUGH SAT.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109"
8:05 PM EDT discussion of wave by TPC.



Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques and U.S. V.I.Radar loop.

Oh msbee,I hope you get some rain from this wave as you need it as there are deficits of rain in some of the islands this year.

[Meso]

18 hours NAM : http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018s.gif
30 hours NAM : http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif"
84 NAM : http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif
Brings it Entering the SW gulf at 84 hours... Again,not likely,but hey.


24 hours GFS : http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024s.gif"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg" target="_blank" target="_blank

Close proximity to land,and the nam is obviously deepening it more rapidly than likely..But something to look at?
Most of the models show a slight low pressure down there..but nothing like the NAM is showing.. Guess we can see what the 12z GFS is showing soon..Although NAM's scenario is unlikely

[NDG]

NAM who? I usually disregard that model for tropical development to begin with.
Just the usal overaggressive nam, but who knows one day it might be right

[jeap4]

The "current" sat images are from yesterday for some reason

Run the loop to get the latest and you will see what the NAM is hinting at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[msbee]

Man, that wave fizzled out, didn't it?

[NcentralFlaguy]

That actually looks like an impressive area of convection attm. however it appears to moving to the wnw at a fairly rapid clip, can anyone post a good low-level wind map?

[caribepr]

We've gotten a couple spit showers and some awesome rainbows out of it...but my gardens are still rain thirsty!

[Steve H.]

This area actually looks pretty impressive IMO. This was over portions of Columbia/Venezuela yesterday. This is the area of interest this time of year. Whether it sticks its feet in the Atlantic or Pacific is the question. Crossing over near Panama now.

[Cyclone1]

NAM did this to me earlier this year. It took an area of convection and blew it way out of proportion, showing an Arlene-like storm heading into west Cuba. Nothing ever formed from it.... However, the remnants of the convection did appear to help form Barry... maybe instead of being completely wrong, it was just really, really, right, just a little ahead of time.

EDIT: Whoa. After seeing, the "actual" current satellite, I think this model run may be more plausible.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Your wasting your time looking at NAM for Tropics.

[Frank2]

Just looks like the per usual convection north of the Panama Canal - nothing else...

[alan1961]

Anyone know whats happened to the sat loops from TPC?

[southerngreen]

the links on s2k didn't work for some reason???

try this route:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html" target="_blank

http://www.mayaparadise.com/weather.htm ... eacontours