12Z GFS 6/20

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS continues to hint at Tropical Development as wave moves into the Gulf next week. Shear looks favorable for development looking at 300 MB and above.

[caneman]

Link please?

[ronjon]

Here's the 12Z GFS - it shows a rather large wave entering the GOM and migrating toward the Tx-La-Miss coast next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126s.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Sjones]

The Weather Channel doesn't seem to be too concerned about it stating that is should move east over land and not come in the gulf at all...I don't see how that could be correct just by looking at the maps, it looks to be moving toward the LA/TX Coastline...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Just something to keep an eye on.

[caneman]

Much as I hate to say it, I've learned not to rely too much on The Weather Channels predictions.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

True!!!

[Opal storm]

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE 500 MB RIDGE
CENTERED NORTH/WEST OF THE AREA...WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE
CROSSING THE GULF AND REACHING SOUTH TX BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
PWS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE
POPS INCREASING TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS.

[cheezyWXguy]

That might not be good for me, since im heading down to college station on sunday...could it take a track towards there?

[Roxy]

I'd say it "bears watching"....hehe.

[Rainband]

Just a wave

[Agua]

As long as it doesn't develop into some sort of TC, we could use the rain on my farm up in central Mississippi.

[HeeBGBz]

That would be interesting.

[Frank2]

...you look at the whirlpool in the bathtub and say, "I see an eye!"

[Frank2]

Oops - I posted the previous comment to the wrong topic...

On the other hand, some refer to the Atlantic's warm waters as being akin to bath water, so...

[Wx_Warrior]

Your trip to farmland (err College Station) should be ok...We aren't talking Cat 5.

[Sjones]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N56W WITH RIDGING STRETCHING W TO 75W. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH...CENTERED OVER S MEXICO...HAS RIDGING THAT STRETCHES E ALONG 20N TO 84W. THE ACTIVE WEATHER LIES IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE RIDGES...INDUCED BY TROUGHING N OF THE REGION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ ARE LIKELY ALL FACTORS THAT HAVE IGNITED AND MAINTAINED LARGE CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIB S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-82W. AN EXTENDED SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORMED AROUND 00Z OVER NW COLOMBIA. SINCE THEN...THIS LARGE CLUSTER HAS EXPANDED AND BEEN TRACKING RATHER QUICKLY WWD. SHALLOWER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W/66W...IS AFFECTING A GOOD PORTION OF THE NE CARIB N OF
16N BETWEEN 64W-70W. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE STRONG SIDE...20 TO 30 KT...IN THE CENTRAL CARIB. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

Let it roll baby roll!

[artist]

KFDM Meteorologist- have any updated thoughts? Thanks for posting here - it's good to hear what the pros think!

[cheezyWXguy]

Your trip to farmland (err College Station) should be ok...We aren't talking Cat 5.

lol im headed to A&M for a tennis camp next week...and i know its not gonna be a major storm, im talking like is it going to take a track that would send heavy rains in that direction...but it was kind of a stupid question in the first place, since its probably way too far out to tell