Low press. off/on FL coast

[robbielyn]

I thought it was strange around 2:15pm the winds picked up and we had some tropical rains. No thunder, no lightning. Just got windy all of the sudden and tropical warm rains. wonder if this is a harbinger to come when that low gets into the atlantic.

[cpdaman]

was that discussion posted saying this low level feature will slow down and hang around off-shore?

sorry if i'm a lil slow on this one

[StormTracker]

was that discussion posted saying this low level feature will slow down and hang around off-shore?

sorry if i'm a lil slow on this one

That's what I make of it, that's 1 reason I posted it! Waiting for the next discussion!

[ronjon]

If the low pressure makes it to the coast that's probably as far east as it will go - latest model trends have this feature become cutoff from the trough as it exits to the NE. As the subtropical ridge builds in from the east, this feature will get nudged slowly west and probably eventually into the NE GOM. Should help to provide plenty of rain tomorrow as the afternoon discussion below suggests.

From Melbourne AFD:

THU...LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THU MAY BE MORE ACTIVE THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. PENINSULAR VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF
FROM THE EXITING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENTLY...STRONGER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH THE SPACE COAST APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AT RISK (WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW). ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY
WARM (-6C @ 500MB)...DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/K WILL RESULT IN AN ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE
OF STORMS. STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREATS. PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
ELEVATED...AS ANY BACKING TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW (ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES) WILL AMPLIFY THE PRE-EXISTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR

[Weatherfreak14]

so far i give this a 50/50 shot of developing tonight it seems a bit while on land it has developed tropicial charteristics in a way, its weird to think we might have chantal by morning or TD by 5am advisory if not 11pm.

[ronjon]

From Tallahassee AFD:

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SURFACE LOW THAT IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION NOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE PERIOD

[robbielyn]

RonJon what does it say for the tampa area about this feature? Also I would like to add to the first post on this page about the briefness of the wind and rain like a small rainband or something. Hmmm.

[StormTracker]

From Tallahassee AFD:

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SURFACE LOW THAT IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA SHIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION NOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE PERIOD

Also from JAX AFD:
.MARINE...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE GULF THURSDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO EAST THURSDAY AT SAME
SPEEDS. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED...MAY POSSIBLY NEED TO MENTION
EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE DEPENDING ON THE LOW.

[ronjon]

Robbielyn,

Here's Tampa Bay AFD:

A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ARE DRIFTING
SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA PENNISULA. MODELS ARE NOW SLOWING MOVEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE PENNISULA. THURSDAY MORNING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND BEGINS TO PUSH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE MOISTURE OVER THE STATE AND HAVE TRENDED
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION UPWARD SLIGHTLY.

Just looks like more rain and storms for Thursday and Friday rather than drying out like was forecasted earlier this morning. We'll have to watch it if it gets into the GOM, especially if it moves very slowly - water temps vary from 82 - 84 degrees. I know I could use the rain - on the coast I've only had about 3 inches so far for June (most of it from Barry).

[Aric Dunn]

those out of jax,, are weird.. because its not moving sw into the NE gulf..hhmmm what time were those from/... its will be off the east coast soon thats werid..

[ronjon]

those out of jax,, are weird.. because its not moving sw into the NE gulf..hhmmm what time were those from/... its will be off the east coast soon thats werid..

AD, those discussions were from this afternoon. Usually around 2-3 PM. I agree it looks to be headed offshore but the models indicate that it will cutoff from the main trough and left to meander basically until it gets pushed to the west by the building ridge. It looks like it may meander offshore rather than on land so this could get real interesting by tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

those out of jax,, are weird.. because its not moving sw into the NE gulf..hhmmm what time were those from/... its will be off the east coast soon thats werid..

AD, those discussions were from this afternoon. Usually around 2-3 PM. I agree it looks to be headed offshore but the models indicate that it will cutoff from the main trough and left to meander basically until it gets pushed to the west by the building ridge. It looks like it may meander offshore rather than on land so this could get real interesting by tomorrow.

what were the date ranges it was supposed to do that.. no tomorrow.. obviously

[TampaFl]

The low shows up well in this loop. It appears to be slowing down/maybe getting ready to move back to the west as per the AFDs.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida

Robert

[NcentralFlaguy]

you may be right, looks to be almost offshore though.

[Cyclone1]

Looks like it's already offshore

[Aric Dunn]

you can confirm on radar

[Aric Dunn]

pretty close to where it is... better to see loop..

[cpdaman]

it appears to me the circulation is a bit more broad and that about 75 percent is offshore

while the backside is still over downtown jacksonville

[Aric Dunn]

it appears to me the circulation is a bit more broad and that about 60 percent is offshore

while the backside is still over downtown jacksonville (which is a huge city size wise)

the largest city in america.. (land wise)

[Aric Dunn]

there is a low at the surface there are Ne winds north of jax and sw south of jax with calm winds at jax