Wave in Caribbean Sea

[wxman57]

This is the same wave that's being discussed in another thread about the wave in the Caribbean:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=95460&start=40

I'll reply to the original thread.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking at the visible satelite the whole system is moving west into Central America I had to look at different pics to see that it was hard but you can tell from this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html" target="_blank" target="_blank

I wouldn't be so sure about it sliding into Central America Boca, on the last loop it looks like it could get dragged north west.

Don't think so ..Think that was Luis's Vshape wave.

[wxman57]

This is the same wave (SW Caribbean) that some of you had written off as "fizzeled out" a few days ago. I've been following it since it moved off the coast of Africa last week. Wind shear is very high just north of the thunderstorms across the western Caribbean and Gul fof Mexico, and the wave axis will be movins ashore soon. However, a number of models do move some of the wave's moisture NW into the Gulf over the weekend and into Texas next Tuesday. Chances of tropical development don't look too good, but it could mean more heavy rain for central to east Texas next week.

Here's a shot from GARP showing surface obs and satellite plotted and the wave axis identified:

[wxman57]

Don't think so ..Think that was Luis's Vshape wave.

I think you were replying to me, so I'll answer. I checked back to our map of the waves on the 16th of June, and the wave that was between 35-39W on the 16th (Cycloneye's V-shaped wave) is the wave now approaching Central America in the SW Caribbean. I've followed it all the way from Africa and have discussed it daily for our clients.

[Rainband]

Now I am confused, Bay News 9 said it could move north and enhance our rain chances in Florida

[southerngale]

So nobody thinks they're going crazy, this thread and the S.W Caribbean? thread have been merged. We didn't need two threads about the same thing and both were active.

[BreinLa]

Our local weatherman during last night's weather report said they would be watching this wave as it enters the gulf and lots of rain is expected early next week from it.

[southerngale]

Our local weatherman during last night's weather report said they would be watching this wave as it enters the gulf and lots of rain is expected early next week from it.

Just what we don't need... more rain. Send it to people who need it. I need to mow and weedeat, but it's been too wet. Gimme some sun for a while.

[flwxwatcher]

Now I am confused, Bay News 9 said it could move north and enhance our rain chances in Florida

Heard that also on Bay News 9 .Yesterdays and todays 12Z NOGAPS run showed some moisture coming from the Caribbean to enhance Florida's rain early next week. Most models though have brought the moisture from the Caribbean into the Gulf and towards Texas/ LA

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2007062012" target="_blank" target="_blank

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2007062112" target="_blank" target="_blank

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like a pretty interesting feature if you ask me.

[Cyclone1]

Very interesting. Surprised it's not at least an INVEST by now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I have been noticing some hints of organization. Look at the latest frame. Note the fanning appearance. This suggests that the convection is consolidating. It is quite evident in these GOES loops, and another loop indicates some hints of a possible sfc low formation. In addition, you should notice the apparent reduction of westerly shear as a sfc ridge builds over the system. Note that shear is lower over the Gulf of Mexico.

I agree with SouthFloridawx. I believe this might receive our next INVEST designation. Although there are no signs of a defined low-level circulation, I think the current favorable thermodynamics and upper-level anticyclone may cause a significant reduction in shear. This could support the formation of a sfc low and LLC.

[x-y-no]

This is actually starting to look quite interesting. Lots of upper level divergence and some low-level convergence going on ...

I agree this deserves an invest.

[AnnularCane]

I've just noticed the fanning appearance too. How long has this been down there? They might be waiting to see if it sticks around.

[NDG]

Upper level conditions are improving by the minute over this disturbance, it does look like an anticyclonic flow is developing over the system.
There is a ship that has been reporting a westerly wind for the last few hours near 12N & 80W, but it looks a little suspecious to me.

[MGC]

Looks to me like the northern part of this wave is moving NW. Of course it might just be an illusion. Looks to be getting a bit more organized. If it indeed is moving NW than it must be watched.....MGC

[Praxus]

I agree about the NW motion - at least thats what the satellite loop seems to be implying.

[NDG]

Looks to me like the northern part of this wave is moving NW. Of course it might just be an illusion. Looks to be getting a bit more organized. If it indeed is moving NW than it must be watched.....MGC

The low to mid level ridge is to the NE of this system with a weakness straight north towards FL, with not much movement towards the W for now, so I wouldn't be surprised if it would take more of a NW track towards the Gulf of Hond.

[crazycajuncane]

No doubt that it's moving NW in the loop. Rain chances are noted to be very high early next week around here.

It's looking very well this afternoon. Definitely something to keep the bears busy watching.

[x-y-no]

Looks to me like the northern part of this wave is moving NW. Of course it might just be an illusion. Looks to be getting a bit more organized. If it indeed is moving NW than it must be watched.....MGC

Hard to tell ... it could be an illusion due to the rapid expansion of the outflow to the north.