Wave in Caribbean Sea

[DESTRUCTION5]

What this does when the sun goes down will be a very interesting..Poof or production?

[windstorm99]

[MiamiensisWx]

It is too early to make a decisive call on the movement. We must establish a defined LLC. Personally, I do see some hints of a slight NNW movement, but the system appears to be generally stationary. In addition, note the upper ridge building eastward over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper-air environment would tend to support a slow drifting motion, but there could be some hints of a NNW motion. The loop (posted by windstorm99) shows a slight northward motion. This appears to be supporting my hypothesis.

[Ivanhater]

There is certainly a NNW movement...it at least deserves and invest status

[miamicanes177]

upper level winds are not favorable for development in this region.

[SouthFloridawx]

According to the CIMSS site, we've got 850mb vorticity in the area, LLD and ULD is also good.

Lets see if we can get convection to remain over the area for the next 24 hours.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html" target="_blank

[SouthFloridawx]

upper level winds are not favorable for development in this region.

Actually shear has been falling in the exact region where the convection is occurring...


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

With nothing pushing this area out too quick and an ULH building in over top, this will probably be our next invest...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

[superg77]

Investigation please. C'mon!! Invoost! Invoost! Do it!!!! I need the invest. Give it to me now. Do not make me wait one more second for my invest!

[NDG]

upper level winds are not favorable for development in this region.

With all due respect, are you blind? Have you looked at the trends for the past 24 hrs or future upper level forecasts.

[SouthFloridawx]

I know it's probably not, but it appears to have an outflow regime. It's probably due to the upper level winds to the north of it, but I wouldn't be surprised with Upper Level divergence so favorable right now, there is something starting to set up. It does have the classic outflow look, just need to have an low level area of pressure to go along with it.

[Praxus]

Shear is forecast to be very low in the area in 24 hours

[Ivanhater]

I know it's probably not, but it appears to have an outflow regime. It's probably due to the upper level winds to the north of it, but I wouldn't be surprised with Upper Level divergence so favorable right now, there is something starting to set up. It does have the classic outflow look, just need to have an low level area of pressure to go along with it.

I agree...the set up is not perfect, but certainly there for something to get together

[MiamiensisWx]

I know it's probably not, but it appears to have an outflow regime. It's probably due to the upper level winds to the north of it, but I wouldn't be surprised with Upper Level divergence so favorable right now, there is something starting to set up. It does have the classic outflow look, just need to have an low level area of pressure to go along with it.

I agree. In addition, the Miami NWS has noted that the Gulf of Mexico sfc ridge is expected to establish across the Southeast and northern Caribbean Sea. The current trends support this hypothesis. The GFS and Euro offer model support, too. This could serve as a favorable ventilating environment for development; it would decrease low-level shear, too.

The discussion mentions the Caribbean system, too.

THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND TODAY. BOTH THE NAM/GFS NOW
CONCUR THAT THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS FL TODAY ALONG WITH THE
WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE SHEARING APART INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN ITS PLACE...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY
SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FL WILL RETURN TO A LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A STRONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND A
WEAK POSSIBLE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...A VERY TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN...AND THIS WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN METRO AREAS AND MARCHING INLAND ACROSS THE
EVERGLADES...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH
TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW WHICH WOULD FAVOR
INTERIOR/LAKE OKEE. REGION FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ALONG
WITH SOME POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. SOME
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW MAY ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS SHOWS STRONG BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH DAY...AS UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ANY SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION.

We must wait for the upper-level trough to move away from the East Coast. As the upper low moves east, we should soon observe the strengthening sfc ridge and upper-level anticyclone across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast.

[Cyclone1]

Recent loops make it look like it's going to miss Central America completely! WAKE UP NRL!

[Cyclone1]

Recent loops make it look like it's going to miss Central America completely! WAKE UP NRL!

Please excuse me. I overreact. A lot.

[x-y-no]

upper level winds are not favorable for development in this region.

Why? It's got an upper high above and the entrance quadrant of a jet to the north ventilating it. What's not good?

[flwxwatcher]

Excerpt from the 2:05 P.M. Tropical Weather Discussion

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE SW CARIB WHERE LARGE CLUSTERS OF
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 16N W OF
79W. THERE APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL ELEMENTS CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
STRONG ACTIVITY. ONE FACTOR IS UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS FORCING IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. WHILE THE ITCZ IS PROVIDING SOME OF THIS FORCING...I AM
A LITTLE MORE CONVINCED THAT THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR MAINTAINING THIS WWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION. THIS
WILL BE FURTHER ANALYZED AND POSSIBLY ADDED TO THE 18Z ANALYSIS.

[windstorm99]

On this visible loop you can somewhat make out the fanning takeing place with the clouds.

If it does not move into the epac i think persistence threw tonight will be key to watch

[B'hamBlazer]

That's one pretty impressive-looking "blob."

[wzrgirl1]

wow pretty impressive indeed but not at all heights I guess