Low press. off/on FL coast

[windstorm99]

Satelitte view...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Center over land as we speak near Jax..

[HURAKAN]

Looks very interesting and being this time of the year it should something to keep an eye on. If Andrea did it on May, Chantal can do it in June!!! Lets wait for the response that the system will have when it moves over the Gulfstream.

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

...FIRST DAY OF SUMMER WILL BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE THAT BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL YESTERDAY
HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SFC LOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE JACKSONVILLE VICINITY AND IS LINGERING JUST OFF
THE COAST EAST OF MAYPORT AND IS SPINNING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN BAND SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH MUCH DEEPER
CONVECTION FURTHER OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. PWATS OF 2
INCHES WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL MAINTAIN SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS BREAKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
WITH SOME TRAINING OF RAIN BANDS THERE WILL REMAIN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE LOW-LYING FLOODING ISSUES THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS BECOME STRONGER. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
80S WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR FRIDAY...LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND TAKE MOISTURE
WITH IT AND AREAS ACRS SERN GA SHOULD DRY OUT AND LEAVE NERN FL IN
ZONE OF SCTD AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. MORE SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

FOR SATURDAY...MORE MID LEVEL DRY WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ISOLD/SCTD TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 ACRS NERN FL. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS
WILL EASILY SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTENSION OF BERMUDA SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

[NDG]

I don't see this weak low moving into the open waters of the gulfstream, everything in the low to mid levels is moving SSW, so the low pressure should move over land and die out slowly.

[TampaFl]

Nice loop of the southwest drift of the low over NE Florida.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satloop.master.pl?Florida



Robert

[Thunder44]

There is too much dry air and shear coming from the north and west. If this center goes over water, I think it's very unlikely to develop into a TD or STD.

[gtsmith]

Ugh...the clouds to my west look like they're going to obscure my view of the Shuttle landing today. Too bad...I'm about 50 miles east of it's SW to NE approach vector. Brought my HD camcorder to work too...hope it clears a bit

[HurricaneGirl]

reminds me of Andrea

[artist]

from the 2:05 discussion- NHC tropical weather discussion-

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTERESTING AREA OF LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1013 MB...HAS BROKEN OFF
THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC FRONT CENTERED JUST S OF ST AUGUSTINE
FLA. 88-D DATA FROM JAX SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FLARING UP A BIT ON THE E SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION N OF 29N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN GENERAL...NWP MODELS FORECAST LITTLE
MOVEMENT OR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1734.shtml" target="_blank?

from Miami's 10 am discussion -

MAIN SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE STILL LIES
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND MAY CLIP LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACH
AND GLADES COUNTY AREA WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

from Melbourne 10 am discussion -

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...EXPECT SFC LOW TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD TODAY...
AND THE LOOSE CONSENSUS OF EARLY S/R GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS FEATURE TO
DEFORM/ELONGATE E-W AS IT DOES SO.

[Nimbus]

reminds me of Andrea

Almost looks like the center is chasing the convection to get back out over water.

Redevelopment further east might mean the shuttle crew will have to fly back from California.

[JonathanBelles]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 211820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
220 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007


.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NE FL STAYS
STATIONARY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST AND NORTH. THE LOW
DISIPATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PENNISULA INTO SATURDAY. DRIER AIR
HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
BUT A FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW WINDS DOWN. BY LATE
SATURDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW
BUT A DRIER ATMOSPHERE IN THE PICTURE.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...RAINY SEASON PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY A CONTINUATION OF A QUASI STATIONARY
SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANS...ONE WHICH
CONTINUES TO SHOW GENERAL TROUGHING NEAR OR ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST U.S./CANADIAN MARITIMES AREA WITH BROAD
RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WHILE RIDGING
TENDS TO FAVOR EVENTUAL EASTERLY FLOW FOR FLORIDA...THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE WELL WEST OF FLORIDA (GENERALLY
ALONG 85-90 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE). THUS...FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5
DAYS AND PERHAPS LONGER...THE DEEP ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WE`LL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED ON MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND INITIALLY FAVORING LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. NAM AND GFS
DIFFER ON SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM OFFERING ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST
WHILE THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAY ALSO HOLD AT ISOLATED COVERAGE...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST
CUT CHANCES FROM 40/50 TO 30 INLAND (20 OR LESS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS).

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL
ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH MIGHT BE ABLE TO
PRESS INTO THE MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA-CAROLINAS POSITION. THE LAST
FEW GFS RUNS HAVE SHOWN THIS...BUT BEING DAY 6 AND 7 I`M NOT ABOUT
TO BITE OFF TOTALLY JUST YET. FOR NOW...WILL RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE 40/50 PERCENT RANGE AND NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO ANTICIPATING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVERAGE...BUT THAT`S ALL.

&&

...

[cpdaman]

despite the tampa disc this system is not dead yet

tampa is going with current gfs model solution and i bet there confidence is not high

other model/s say there could be a more eastward component over the gulf stream and northern bahamas into a more favorable enviornemt but alas away from land but still fun to track esp. with proximity

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT

[NcentralFlaguy]

Nice burst of convection east of Daytona, I wonder what the chances are that there may be a center relocation a little further east?

[Nimbus]

Currently looks like an elongated circulation as predicted.

That could become more symmetrical overnight.

The surface pressure is down near 1012 just off the Cape.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009" target="_blank

[Praxus]

Hmm this thing bombing out a bit or what

[Cyclone1]

Whoa! It's looking much better!

[NcentralFlaguy]

well, i am looking at the radar and umm, well Im certainly no meteorologist, but that is starting to look like a new llc just to the east of daytona, maybe just a hair se.... anyone else have any thoughts on this. in fact its even starting to look impressive on the sat image. Im not sure this should be given up on yet.

[cpdaman]

is that a feeder band off of martin/palm beach county because we just got socked with gusty t'storm in boynton around 7 and i can see a nice signature off the coast up to vero beach and then consolidating into some more convection just off cape canaveral

convection has been bombing for 2.5 hours lets see if this can pulse like this thru midnite before getting all that riled up

if we get a center reform SE things could get a lil intresting with water temps off central florida in the low 80's and shear less

winds at bouy 40010 are SE and will be looking for a more eastward component or more importantly the 41009 bouy winds are still WSW and will be looking for a more northerly component by midnite as center appears to be east of daytona now

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999