Wave in Caribbean Sea

[Javlin]

Proximity to land is always a killer esp. in developmental stages,it needs room to breathe more or less.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks interesting and seems to have a NW component too. Will be interesting to watch over the coming days, especially once it gets into the GOM. I do not expect to see too much out of this though, probably just some heavy rains for TX/LA come next week.

[tailgater]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WHILE CONDITIONS DO
NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

As I have been saying, upper level winds are not favorable for development in this region.

Upper level conditions do seem pretty good ATT, they are probably speaking more of land and future conditions

[Cyclone1]

I swear I see this thing moving more NW than W.

[tailgater]

This stinks
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/diskfailure.html

[Cyclenall]

Last night I started noticing it. I'm not so sure about it moving into the Epac at all, it could just go over some land and back into 2 areas of water (western Caribbean again and BOC). It won't get ripped to shreds really but just stay the way it is until it can start strengthening and organizing without land interaction.

[HURAKAN]

This stinks
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/diskfailure.html" target="_blank

Totally agree!!! I hope it's back soon.

[wxmann_91]

Given the current and forecast steering patterns, I suspect this blob will move into Central America and then promptly turn northward as a weakness in the subtropical ridge develops. Conditions look somewhat favorable once this reaches the BOC - assuming it still survives.

[deltadog03]

i think the NHC is off the rocker. Conditions are fav. for development! Just look at the ANTI-CYCLONE over head of it!

[tailgater]

261 FXUS64 KLIX 212006 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 306 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007 SHORT TERM STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONG TERM GOING INTO SUNDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...AND A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN WILL PULL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE HOLD. DUE TO THIS INCREASING MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED DIRUNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STALL OVER TEXAS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PULL NORTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THIS MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...AND TEMPEATURES CLIMBING BACK TO NORMAL...MROE DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY...A STRONG TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
We'll I personally have had enough rain for a while, let's hope some is sent to those areas that need it.

[Recurve]

NOT making a forecast, but....
It's landing.

Still, it's moist around, SE flow to the north could feed it. Low shear. Nothing much up the road. It has some pretty venting. Stable mass northward, not parchingly dry. One good bubble of convection that popped.

Expect this to get some hard intense scrutiny cause there's nothing much upwind to watch.

[BigA]

Does anyone have links to shear forecasts in the Western Caribbean or whole Atlantic? Thank you much.

[lrak]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... winds.html

[alan1961]

If this area can get north of Nicaragua and Honduras theres chances it could explode, the eastern side is managing to keep some convection going.

[Cyclone1]

If this area can get north of Nicaragua and Honduras theres chances it could explode, the eastern side is managing to keep some convection going.

Looks like it's heading that way, too.

[O Town]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ON THE 18Z MAP ALONG 81W/82W
SOUTH OF 18N BASED ON THE PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION OBSERVED
IN THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 11N. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND THE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
WHILE CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

[alan1961]

If this area can get north of Nicaragua and Honduras theres chances it could explode, the eastern side is managing to keep some convection going.

Looks like it's heading that way, too.

Theres also a circulation right at the end of the loop right on the Nicaragua/Honduras border

[Javlin]

looks like the bulk of what circulation is available is staying off shore if thats the case then a little further N something might could happen linky

[Air Force Met]

As I have been saying, upper level winds are not favorable for development in this region.

Well...you've been wrong about that. There is an anticyclone over the wave axis.

From the discussion:
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ON THE 18Z MAP ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 18N BASED ON THE PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION OBSERVED IN THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.......
DIFFLUENCE ASSOC.IATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 12N80W IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

OK...the low is near 11N and 81/82W...and the Upper high is near 12N/80W...

The satellite shows excellent outflow...something you would see on a hurricane. The reason the conditions are unfavorable have NOTHING to do with the upper winds. You couldn't draw a better streamline. Conditions are unfavorable because of proximity to land. The anticylone is parked right on top of the low. Please tell me how that's not favorable...that's why there is so much convection in the first place.

[NDG]

As I have been saying, upper level winds are not favorable for development in this region.

Well...you've been wrong about that. There is an anticyclone over the wave axis.

From the discussion:
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ON THE 18Z MAP ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 18N BASED ON THE PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION OBSERVED IN THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.......
DIFFLUENCE ASSOC.IATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 12N80W IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

OK...the low is near 11N and 81/82W...and the Upper high is near 12N/80W...

The satellite shows excellent outflow...something you would see on a hurricane. The reason the conditions are unfavorable have NOTHING to do with the upper winds. You couldn't draw a better streamline. Conditions are unfavorable because of proximity to land. The anticylone is parked right on top of the low. Please tell me how that's not favorable...that's why there is so much convection in the first place.

Finally an official met has posted something with common sense, , yes the NHC is contradicting itself.