Wave in Caribbean Sea

[linkerweather]

How is the NHC contradicting itself? It never said Upper Level Conditions aren't favorablel it said conditions aren't favorable. And, with a low sitting along a wave axis right along the central american coastline; that IS NOT favorable. Granted the upper conditions look ok and ala Bastardi, if this were 500 miles to the east it would be a different story.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER WATER. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[NDG]

How is the NHC contradicting itself? It never said Upper Level Conditions aren't favorablel it said conditions aren't favorable. And, with a low sitting along a wave axis right along the central american coastline; that IS NOT favorable. Granted the upper conditions look great and ala Bastardi, if this were 500 miles to the east it would be a different story.

500 miles to the east we would be talking pretty much just about right on top of the Colombian Coast,

I think the trough axis is a good 200 miles to the east Nicaragua, more than plenty of space for further development.

[tailgater]

Cloud tops starting to cool again, in that area just NE of the Nic./ Hond. border. I just noticed it looks like a ULL in the central GOM might be a player in drawing that moisture toward Texas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html" target="_blank

[Aric Dunn]

just watch it,, i have seen many many many systems form close to the coast like that.. there would not be any major development but possible. never count anything .. til its gone.....no matter what anyone says

[ROCK]

latest vis looks to be a mid-level swirl right on the tip on Hondo...really close to land but it moves a tad more NW it might have some more time tonight....

[NcentralFlaguy]

Cloud tops starting to cool again, in that area just NE of the Nic./ Hond. border. I just noticed it looks like a ULL in the central GOM might be a player in drawing that moisture toward Texas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html" target="_blank" target="_blank

I think thats a very good call, i just saw that myself.

[alan1961]

Its getting pulled north i suspect and having some of its energy drawn out ENE.

[Kerry04]

Looks like the blob is flareing up

[srainhoutx]

How is the NHC contradicting itself? It never said Upper Level Conditions aren't favorablel it said conditions aren't favorable. And, with a low sitting along a wave axis right along the central american coastline; that IS NOT favorable. Granted the upper conditions look great and ala Bastardi, if this were 500 miles to the east it would be a different story.

500 miles to the east we would be talking pretty much just about right on top of the Colombian Coast,

I think the trough axis is a good 200 miles to the east Nicaragua, more than plenty of space for further development.

Would note upper air pattern in general. Vortex in Central GOM is interesting to note. ULL East of Baha is also a player. And ULL of East Coast of FL is in the mix as well...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-wv.html

any thoughts?

[AnnularCane]

Looks like another case of "go to bed, wake up, and see how it looks in the morning."

[srainhoutx]

Looks like another case of "go to bed, wake up, and see how it looks in the morning."

Agrees

[alan1961]

I've thrown the towel in on this one..its getting pulled apart, Its that old devil called shear again!

[Stratosphere747]

Ahh.. I remember the days of looking at a WV image and going "oh, fill in the blank"

[NDG]

How is the NHC contradicting itself? It never said Upper Level Conditions aren't favorablel it said conditions aren't favorable. And, with a low sitting along a wave axis right along the central american coastline; that IS NOT favorable. Granted the upper conditions look great and ala Bastardi, if this were 500 miles to the east it would be a different story.

500 miles to the east we would be talking pretty much just about right on top of the Colombian Coast,

I think the trough axis is a good 200 miles to the east Nicaragua, more than plenty of space for further development.

Would note upper air pattern in general. Vortex in Central GOM is interesting to note. ULL East of Baha is also a player. And ULL of East Coast of FL is in the mix as well...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html" target="_blank" target="_blank


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-wv.html" target="_blank" target="_blank

any thoughts?

I don't think any of those ULL are a factor now, by the way, there's no ULL to the east of FL, just a low to mid level low, the one in the sothcentral GOM is enhancing an outflow on the NW side, but as far as the apparant NNW movement of the area of disturbed weather is because of the weakness from the surface to the mid levels of the atmosphere, imo.

[Praxus]

Would be pretty wild if both the blob off florida and this one developed much further...

[alan1961]

yeah..it will be a wild race across the Atlantic in an Easterly direction!, last one departing puts the lights out

[AnnularCane]

Four named storms before July? That'll be the day.

[HeeBGBz]

Would be pretty wild if both the blob off florida and this one developed much further...

Yeah, I was thinking that. Wondering what would happen if the one east of Florida crossed into the gulf at the same time the one in the Caribbean did the same.

There'd be a mad dash to the grocery stores fer shure.

[NDG]

Would be pretty wild if both the blob off florida and this one developed much further...

Yeah, I was thinking that. Wondering what would happen if the one east of Florida crossed into the gulf at the same time the one in the Caribbean did the same.

There'd be a mad dash to the grocery stores fer shure.

I don't think that would happen. It will be one or the other. UL conditions should become more hostile for at least the one near FL, so I think that will be the first one to go, IMO.