Low press. off/on FL coast

[NcentralFlaguy]

Thats exactly what i think may be happening, if you loop the se sector radar you can get a better perspective of the rotation, I have been watching a tiny cluster of storms just ese of Daytona to try to gain some perspective and it does appear to be feeding into that intense rotation of convection. just my novice observation.

[windstorm99]

Radar loop...

[NcentralFlaguy]

I wonder how this will pan out? it over the gulfstream, but i cant get a sense of direction maybe just stationary?

[windstorm99]

Looks to be drifting slowly to the sw to me.

[DanKellFla]

Hmmmm, just a summer thunderstorm....

[cpdaman]

i would say ESE drift but what do i know

watch the west side of the center lets see if it consolidates or shifts east

which could indicate better organization/ and or east ward movement

[NcentralFlaguy]

i would say ESE drift but what do i know

watch the west side of the center lets see if it consolidates or shifts east

which could indicate better organization/ and or east ward movement

I would agree, if its moving at all its a slow ese drift but im thinking its been at this latitude for awhile now.(im simply using Daytona as a reference point.

[flwxwatcher]

Looking at the Jacksonville Long range Radar it looks like its an elongated Low pressure

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes" target="_blank

[NcentralFlaguy]

look at this loop. it a completely different perspective.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[jaxfladude]

Someone please lock this thread and save us all the embarrassment?

[x-y-no]

Someone please lock this thread and save us all the embarrassment?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER WATER. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cpdaman]

ok original low level center is breaking down low level flow is not only elongated but becoming undetectable ENE of daytona

to my amateur eyes a new rotation is trying to develop about 80 miles east of daytona as you can see in last half hour a clear banding feature wrapping w ward on northern side of deep convection then becoming more vague

if someone could tell me in more than general terms the shear situation over the storm that would be great i.e mid level westerly shear? and the strength or shear not sure if low level circulation can take hold although shear values are probably lower where the new center is trying to form

[feederband]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

My non professional eyes would have to say it is a boneified blob right now....Blobified....

[Aric Dunn]

I think the center is trying to reform east of cape Canaveral . .satellite and radar are showing some signs of this !! watch it over night.. upper winds are not really favorable but could still see the center try and reform near or in that convection ..

[Aric Dunn]

actually i would "almost" bet on it from the way it looks. .. the center reforming east of Canaveral

[ROCK]

I agree Artic.....Looks to me the center did reform east. You can see the last frames on the vis that the low level clouds start to wrap away from the broad low and into that recent area of T-storms....might be player by am....imo...

[Normandy]

Wait till there is evidence of a llc forming before stating so. All you guys are seeing is inflow into that convection, and your just assuming their is an LLC forming because their is inflow....their is no west wind, so their is no LLC. Id argue that the turning you guys are seeing is at the Mid-levels anyway.

Yes please, close the thread to save the embarrasment

[MiamiensisWx]

actually i would "almost" bet on it from the way it looks. .. the center reforming east of Canaveral

If the sfc low is reforming, I believe it may be relocating to a position that is slightly to the NNE of Cape Canaveral. Take a view of this loop. In addition, the pressure is steady (1013 mbar) at a buoy east of the cape. I haven't noticed any signs of a center reformation to the east of the cape, and current data does not support your hypothesis. In addition, I still notice a broad rotation further north (east of Saint Augustine). I believe that is the original low-level circulation. We shall wait and see if the evidence grows for a LLC relocation.

At any rate, I do agree that the center could reform closer to Cape Canaveral. In addition, I estimate that the sfc winds may be stronger under the main convective organization. The system is not a subtropical or tropical entity, but it appears to have moved closer to those designations (especially subtropical). At the same time, it is still entangled with a trough, and shear may increase before it can gain structural improvement. I do agree that it looks decent; it is almost more impressive than Andrea's remnants. If the anticyclone can remain over the system, I believe that a definite chance exists for development.

[MiamiensisWx]

Wait till there is evidence of a llc forming before stating so. All you guys are seeing is inflow into that convection, and your just assuming their is an LLC forming because their is inflow....their is no west wind, so their is no LLC. Id argue that the turning you guys are seeing is at the Mid-levels anyway.

Yes please, close the thread to save the embarrasment

You may be looking at the improper location. I do see some hints of a weak (albeit broad) low-level circulation east of Saint Augustine. Overland sfc observations suggest that a broad sfc low is located offshore. On the other hand, I agree that there are minimal chances for development. This system is primarily a frontal low. At the same time, I would not completely discard its potential for subtropical characteristics. This depends upon the duration and movement of a weak anticyclone over the system.