Wave in Caribbean Sea

[cheezyWXguy]

I've thrown the towel in on this one..its getting pulled apart, Its that old devil called shear again!

hey...read page 8 again...its not shear thats a problem for this storm...it has an anticyclone right on top of it, thats why its outflow looks so good...its the proximity to land that is hindering development, at least at the moment

[HeeBGBz]

This one in the Caribbean looks pretty healthy.

[alan1961]

This one in the Caribbean looks pretty healthy.

You were saying...healthy?..pooooof, another one bites the..whatever!

[Thunder44]

I think we need to watch this system for development the next few days. The upper-level outflow remains excellent this morning and the MLC and trof axis seems to be remergeing off the Northern Honduras coastline.

[Air Force Met]

I've thrown the towel in on this one..its getting pulled apart, Its that old devil called shear again!

Shear is not the problem...the wave axis is too close to land. It's sitting under an anticyclonic ridge aloft. It just doesn't have its surface features together.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.html

[NDG]

Upper air environment is still favorable, I would wait at least another 24 hrs before I could say the system has gone "poof".

[Thunder44]

Latest from the 8:05am TWD:

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE 1010 MB LOW IS NO LONGER ATTACHED TO THE WAVE. BROAD AREA OF
LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
EXTENDING TO OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 21N BETWEEN
80W-86W.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I have the feeling were gonna see another major blow up today...

[wxman57]

Thunderstorm activity is now diminishing because the wave axis, which was along the coast of Nicaragua yesterday, has moved well inland over southern Mexico along 85-87W. Lingering moisture is being drawn northward on the east side of a deepening trof that's over the eastern BoC and Yucatan. This trof should draw the leftover moisture north then northwestward into the Gulf over the next few days. Wind shear in the Gulf should remain strong, so chances of development are very low. Could bring more rain to TX/LA next Tuesday, but that's about all.

[Aric Dunn]

there is just nothing at the surface right now that says that it will doing anything anytime soon .... but things could change.. like i said before its not gone till its gone.....

[caneman]

Looks pretty well gone to me.

['CaneFreak]

Lets be honest with ourselves here...this system is now being steered by the mid to low level flow...around the 500 mb level and the flow is from east to west at this level...meaning if anything does form it would head straight for the Yucatan (spelling) and crash right into the mountains of 'ole Mexico.
See for yourself...heres the low in the mid levels...and here is the steering flow from 500 to 850mb....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor2.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[tailgater]

The MLC has been trackable for at least the last 12 hrs. has clipped the NW part Nicaragua moving NW and is now N of the Honduras coast just west of Swan Island. Now it may dissapate in the next few hours, but it does seem to be reason the T-storms are refiring along the coast. Here's trhe only surface ob. around(the closest)that shows anything at the surface.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html
and might be just T-storms winds, pressures remain near yesterdays.

[Comanche]

T-storms are re-firing now

[Cyclone1]

Yeah they are, I don't give this a good chance at td-3, but a better chance than that FL low.

[tailgater]

This is starting to get interesting, I'm seeing northly winds in the GOH, westerly winds on shore in Honduras and easterly winds to the north. No south winds that I see.
57 do you have a updated GARP.
The upper level winds are not as favorable as yesterdays not bad yet. Also seems as if anything did form here(@ 17N 84.5 W) it would track mostly west, leaving little time to organize. Thoughts?

[djones65]

Well actually, IF something were to form it would be slow moving to the northwest in my opinion, and then north and northwest over the weekend as the upper level trof over the western Gulf and the building ridge over the western Atlantic would result in a south southeasterly steering flow at nearly all levels. In any event, whether the system organizes into a tropical cyclone or not, the moisture will move into the Gulf and towards the northern Gulf coast of Louisiana and upper Texas providing significant rains into early next week.

In my opinion the middle level circulation that became apparent from the convection yesterday afternoon is tracking northwestward and still quite obvious over the NW Caribbean Sea. It shouldn't be ignored (although I don't think that would be possible by anyone who is member of this forum)...

[HurricaneRobert]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

[tailgater]

This just about says it all.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 420 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007 SHORT TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASING POP NUMBERS BY SUNDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING THE TOUGHEST TIME AT HANDLING THE QUICKNESS OF THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN WHILE THE HIGHER RES MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER. THE QUICKEST SOLUTION IS GIVEN BY THE LOCALLY RUN ROS MODEL. IT BRINGS CHANCE POPS INTO MSY/BTR BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO EARLY BUT IT IS SHOWING A TREND TOWARD INCREASING POP NUMBERS SOONER THAT THE OTHER MODELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW AS WELL. TWO UPPER MT RIDGES...ONE OVER MEXICO AND THE OTHER MOVING NW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE THE CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES NW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO GET SQUEEZED AND INTENSIFY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH KICKS OUT TO THE EAST AND THE ENTIRE GULF COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN UPPER HIGH WHICH BY SATURDAY IS LOCATED ON MEXICOS EAST COAST. A DEEP TROPICAL MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BENEATH THE UPPER MT HIGH. EVENTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT DOESN'T STAY THAT WAY LONG. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE MOVES WEST WHILE DEEP MOISTURE IS FUNNELED RAPIDLY NORTHWARD TOWARD US. ON ITS JOURNEY...THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUBDUCT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN HIGH BUILDING OVER THE GULF. THESE AREAS WILL BE HOSTILE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEN WE SEE THE AREA OF MOISTURE MOVE INLAND LATE SATURDAY EVENING. A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND HIGH WILL BE HIGHLY DIVERGENT AND WILL HELP INFLUENCE TS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY

[tailgater]

from 205 pm TWD
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING N OF 16N.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 20N
BETWEEN 80W-86W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N77W TO WESTERN CUBA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS EVIDENT LAST
EVENING...BUT IT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. ALL THAT
REMAINS IS BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE LOW CLOUD FEATURES.
QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 70W. WINDS HAVE DECREASED FROM AROUND
30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST YESTERDAY. THE STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE INCREASED SEAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER 10 FT.
SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.