Less active season in 2007?

[windstorm99]

Good morning...

I know there's a thread on this already but i thought i'd make a new one as jeff.masters updated his blog and talks about the 1st seasonal forcast put out by the uk met office yesterday.

Also mentions the possibilty of some tropical or non-tropical system developing of the eastcoast in the coming days.

Lastest blog by jeff.masters blog

[HURRICANELONNY]

I heard that on the weather channel and also read that in the newspaper this morning. They think no La Nina will bring down the #'s. I think there right at the start but wrong at the finish. La Nina is just starting and the effects won't be felt till August- November. Between the true heart of the season. I say 15 named storms with the majors coming through Aug-Oct. That means 15 to go in names. The SOI is finally showing what will happen when the real season begins. It will be a late and strong season. Hopefully no landfalls.

[flwxwatcher]

I read the UK MET report and they give themselves alot room for error IMHO.. They say they think we will probably have 10 more named storms but there is a 70% chance we will have between 7 and 13 more named storms for a total of 9-15 for the Season..:)..

[skysummit]

I heard that on the weather channel and also read that in the newspaper this morning. They think no La Nina will bring down the #'s. I think there right at the start but wrong at the finish. La Nina is just starting and the effects won't be felt till August- November. Between the true heart of the season. I say 15 named storms with the majors coming through Aug-Oct. That means 15 to go in names. The SOI is finally showing what will happen when the real season begins. It will be a late and strong season. Hopefully no landfalls.

I don't understand why they lower the numbers because La Nina is not full fledged just yet....neutral will do just fine.

[windstorm99]

I heard that on the weather channel and also read that in the newspaper this morning. They think no La Nina will bring down the #'s. I think there right at the start but wrong at the finish. La Nina is just starting and the effects won't be felt till August- November. Between the true heart of the season. I say 15 named storms with the majors coming through Aug-Oct. That means 15 to go in names. The SOI is finally showing what will happen when the real season begins. It will be a late and strong season. Hopefully no landfalls.

I don't understand why they lower the numbers because La Nina is not full fledged just yet....neutral will do just fine.

A cooling of atlantic sea surface temperatures may have a thing or two to do with that.

The climate prediction center is also calling for cooler sst's come august,september,and october.Adrian

[jaxfladude]

[AussieMark]

its starting to look like there will be no La Nina this year. Altho I felt this months ago.

here are the weekly anomalities for Nino 3, 4 and 3.4 over the last 12 weeks

Nino 3.4
2007032620070401 0.14
2007040220070408 0.21
2007040920070415 0.12
2007041620070422 0.07
2007042320070429 0.17
2007043020070506 0.19
2007050720070513 -0.13
2007051420070520 -0.21
2007052120070527 0.05
2007052820070603 0.11
2007060420070610 0.13
2007061120070617 0.16

Nino 3
2007032620070401 -0.11
2007040220070408 -0.15
2007040920070415 -0.06
2007041620070422 0.01
2007042320070429 0.12
2007043020070506 0.00
2007050720070513 -0.46
2007051420070520 -0.39
2007052120070527 -0.36
2007052820070603 -0.33
2007060420070610 -0.40
2007061120070617 -0.14

Nino 4
2007032620070401 0.45
2007040220070408 0.39
2007040920070415 0.31
2007041620070422 0.22
2007042320070429 0.13
2007043020070506 0.24
2007050720070513 0.17
2007051420070520 0.18
2007052120070527 0.41
2007052820070603 0.32
2007060420070610 0.36
2007061120070617 0.41

[KFDM Meteorologist]

A good point that Bastardi made was it looks like there will be more atmospheric dust again this year across the Atlantic. He seemed to tone his numbers down a little as well.

[caneman]

Nic read on this subject here >

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/06/23/State ... es_f.shtml

[Noah]

Geez, I would just like some rain. I cannot believe how dry my part of Florida has been. Never saw this before in my 20 years living here. Usually we are pounded with rain every afternoon in June. June is almost over and 2 days it rained for 10 minute.

[Frank2]

When you look at the big picture, this season is so far as slow as was last season - considering that the climatological start of the Atlantic season is about May 5, since we are quickly approaching the two-month mark since then, we so far have only one fairly weak subtropical storm and one fairly weak tropical storm, so, the season is either just normal or slightly below normal for activity.

Personally, I think NOAA's and CSU's numbers are way too high - as others here have mentioned, considering the large amount of dust and the cooling of Atlantic sea surface temps, as well as a certain amount of continuing shear eveywhere, while it's too early to tell, so far the season is a continuation of last year's slow season - thankfully...

As for why the cooling of Atlantic sea surface temps? Well, perhaps one thought is that since there is an increased amount of melting ice in the polar regions (Greenland, the permanent polar ice pack, etc.), so, perhaps this might in some way have something to do with this lowering of ocean temperatures - as when enough ice cubes are added to a bathtub of warm water, the ice will lower the water's temperature overall, so perhaps it's the same, but on a much larger scale...

[flwxwatcher]

A good point that Bastardi made was it looks like there will be more atmospheric dust again this year across the Atlantic. He seemed to tone his numbers down a little as well.

Yes... in his column he has been saying he thinks more African dust again this year.. He also is saying La Nina is coming !!! Late Summer and Fall is what he is thinking.. While he is not bullish on a high nunber of storms he is really stressing the potential tracks of storms. Time will tell:):)

[NDG]

When you look at the big picture, this season is so far as slow as was last season - considering that the climatological start of the Atlantic season is about May 5, since we are quickly approaching the two-month mark since then, we so far have only one fairly weak subtropical storm and one fairly weak tropical storm, so, the season is either just normal or slightly below normal for activity.

Wrong, we are above climatology. The average season doesn't even has named storm by now.
If we were to go by your conclusion, 2005 by this date was well below normal for activity, and look what turned out to be, I'm not even going to go on to 2004,

As for why the cooling of Atlantic sea surface temps? Well, perhaps one thought is that since there is an increased amount of melting ice in the polar regions (Greenland, the permanent polar ice pack, etc.), so, perhaps this might in some way have something to do with this lowering of ocean temperatures - as when enough ice cubes are added to a bathtub of warm water, the ice will lower the water's temperature overall, so perhaps it's the same, but on a much larger scale...

You're joking right? Because according to the Global Warming alarmist, G.W. is supposed to warm the World's oceans not cool them down.
Seriously, if the melting of the polar ice today would had been significant, the first evidence would had seen today would had been on a significant rise in sea level.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the forecast



so as you can see we were cooling but a slight increase is normal it not like a ball falling .. it "oscillates" but the forecast is still for a La Nino to peak in august and September

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

When you look at the big picture, this season is so far as slow as was last season - considering that the climatological start of the Atlantic season is about May 5, since we are quickly approaching the two-month mark since then, we so far have only one fairly weak subtropical storm and one fairly weak tropical storm, so, the season is either just normal or slightly below normal for activity.

Personally, I think NOAA's and CSU's numbers are way too high - as others here have mentioned, considering the large amount of dust and the cooling of Atlantic sea surface temps, as well as a certain amount of continuing shear eveywhere, while it's too early to tell, so far the season is a continuation of last year's slow season - thankfully...

As for why the cooling of Atlantic sea surface temps? Well, perhaps one thought is that since there is an increased amount of melting ice in the polar regions (Greenland, the permanent polar ice pack, etc.), so, perhaps this might in some way have something to do with this lowering of ocean temperatures - as when enough ice cubes are added to a bathtub of warm water, the ice will lower the water's temperature overall, so perhaps it's the same, but on a much larger scale...

That is a very interesting theory. I have a quick question: What would happen in global
warming? Would the hotter water lead to much stronger hurricanes or would
the ice melt and lead to cooler water? What do the pro mets think about this?

I think that what you say Frank could be a very interesting
field of research. I am very curious as to whether GW =
worse hurricanes or weaker hurricanes..

SOme science says worse, other science says weaker...and
i am in the middle confused

[Cyclenall]

Yet again, whenever there isn't any Atlantic activity we get these threads.

When you look at the big picture, this season is so far as slow as was last season - considering that the climatological start of the Atlantic season is about May 5, since we are quickly approaching the two-month mark since then, we so far have only one fairly weak subtropical storm and one fairly weak tropical storm, so, the season is either just normal or slightly below normal for activity.

I disagree with that whole paragraph. Also I wouldn't consider a 60 mph TS "weak".

[deltadog03]

The CFS has been horrible predicting the La nina! The new EURO came out and thats what JB is talking about

[HUC]

The thrue,in terms of hurricane climatology with global warming,is that nobody know what the future will be!!!
Theories,speculation,are normal, also with hypothesis;that the way science progress.
For us, hurricane's "addicted",we can continued our observations,and talking about the hurricanes to come,because...there are no storms at the present! When action will begin,our energy will be focused over the ocean's grounds.
I hope also RAIN..................RAIN.........;
And for those of you who like soocer,i hope that the States will win Mexico in the Gold Cup final at Chicago(the Gwada boys of the Guadeloupe team were beat by Mexico...)...

[deltadog03]

Well, basically the euro came out with the idea of higher than normal pressures over the central and eastern atlantic with lower pressures over gom, carribbean and africa. That should allow for dry air to really effect the central and eastern atlantic. I have a feeling that the cape verde season will be null and void!

[NDG]

Well, basically the euro came out with the idea of higher than normal pressures over the central and eastern atlantic with lower pressures over gom, carribbean and africa. That should allow for dry air to really effect the central and eastern atlantic. I have a feeling that the cape verde season will be null and void!

Sounds like close to 2005