Wave in Caribbean Sea

[Nimbus]

So where do they think this moisture is headed, mid gulf coast?

[srainhoutx]

So where do they think this moisture is headed, mid gulf coast?

sipet from afternoon AFD from HOU/GAL WFO...




000
FXUS64 KHGX 222001
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...


NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK WET WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BRING
IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN BEGINNING MONDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE
2 INCHES WITH MOST AREAS CLOSER TO 2.2 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. POPS WERE INCREASED TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MON AND TUE MAINLY DUE TO THE REMARKABLE
CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS EACH DAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS.
GIVEN HIT AND MISS RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE LAST FEW DAYS...SOME
AREAS MAY BE MORE FLOOD PRONE THAN OTHERS. THERE IS STILL TIME TO
EVALUATE ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL...BUT FLOODING MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS SHOULD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OCCUR. GFS BRINGS THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY REMAIN
OVER TX WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE TOP OF IT. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DECIDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO DECREASE NEXT THU/FRI BUT A GOOD
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK
RATHER PERSISTENT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S. MAX TEMPS COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH.

[Stormcenter]

Very interesting discussion from the NWS out of New Orleans, LA this morning the litle
mess in the NW Carribean.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion

[NDG]

Very interesting discussion from the NWS out of New Orleans, LA this morning the litle
mess in the NW Carribean.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion" target="_blank

Wow, I can tell they are boring, nothing else to watch, like many of us, looking for any little hint of a swirl and at the GFS.

[Nimbus]

Well there still is a little circulation with some convection off Belize.

If it does survive the trek across the gulf into a favorable environment it could spin up next week. Weekends are a good time to start planning ahead even if that only means picking which day to schedule an outdoor event.

[tailgater]

afd NO
SHORT TERM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...IN OTHER WORDS...SCATTERED CONVECTION...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE WILL HAVE SOME DRY AIR AVAILABLE FOR POTENTIAL WIND PROBLEMS. ENERGY THAT MOVES PAST US TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO ANTICYCLONICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND APPROACH THE AREA AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ABOUT DOING SO. NAM PRODUCES ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS HAS 8.5 INCH MAX OVER WASHINGTON PARISH LOUISIANA BY THE SAME TIME. GFS APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...BUT THIS IS 4 RUNS IN A ROW THAT THIS MODEL HAS SIGNALED A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SO I WON'T DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN 40 TO 50 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE POPS. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. WILL TREND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...AS MAV GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL EACH NON-CONVECTION NIGHT OVER THE PAST WEEK. WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

[UptownMary]

Forgive my ignorance, but what is meant by a POP in these discussions?

[chadtm80]

Forgive my ignorance, but what is meant by a POP in these discussions?

Probability of precipitation

Chances of rain

[cycloneye]

Forgive my ignorance, but what is meant by a POP in these discussions?

Pop means Probability of precipitation.Dont be shy to ask any question because you will get the answer in a rapid way.

[miamicanes177]

Probability of precipitation

Chances of rain

check your PM box.

[UptownMary]

OK, thanks! High POP. Low POP.... I like that.

[HeeBGBz]

While I've been watching the Caribbean wave this week, I was thinking my weather forecast for Monday and Tuesday would be from that.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE

Now I'm wondering if it will be from this storm rolling out of east Texas and Mexico.

[Nimbus]

The shear in the western Gulf is on the increase but it is waining slightly in the eastern gulf.

I noticed this morning it still looks like there is some remnant low surface pressure up in the northeastern gulf 1013-1014. Probably not worth starting a new thread over but this time of year even a shallow surface low can increase POP.