INTERESTING WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA

[OURAGAN]

May be is too soon to have something with this system, but it's interesting.

[Chacor]

[BigA]

Not bad...I'll have to see if it has survived when I get back to my house this afternoon...if it has, maybe it has a shot, albeit a longshot, but it still seems too early for such waves to develop IMHO

[windstorm99]

Not much chance there for it to survive as there alot of SAL in the region...

[NDG]

Yeah, lots of stable environmnet across the Atlantic thanks to the SAL, watch it evaporate over the next day.

[Anthonyl]

Respect views, however SAL moving westward at a rather fast clip and seems to be thining out more steadily around the the periphery of the emerging wave.

[Aric Dunn]

actually there is some strong curvature to the clouds.. the only down side is its attached to the hip with the ITCZ .. it would have to break away from which take a while sometime.. but yeah its another strong rotating wave for june....

but the sal is very very strong even though it may be less right near it... although that just may because the sensor does not see the sal since there is some convection

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html" target="_blank

[Aric Dunn]

and actually again there is a Low attached at the north end and it is quite well defined ..
but it has a lot of contenders to deal with .... the ITCZ And the hard part the stable dry air.. but it does not always kill a system erin back a few years ago was surrounded by some pretty heavy sal but formed a strengthened

[WindRunner]

and actually again there is a Low attached at the north end and it is quite well defined ..
but it has a lot of contenders to deal with .... the ITCZ And the hard part the stable dry air.. but it does not always kill a system erin back a few years ago was surrounded by some pretty heavy sal but formed a strengthened

But this isn't the first week of September, either . . . Erin had a far more favorable environment than this, and it still didn't develop until it had reached halfway across the pond . . .


Just remember that it's June and we should be happy that these things have convection at all . . .

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very potent wave....neat to
look at

[Aric Dunn]

and actually again there is a Low attached at the north end and it is quite well defined ..
but it has a lot of contenders to deal with .... the ITCZ And the hard part the stable dry air.. but it does not always kill a system erin back a few years ago was surrounded by some pretty heavy sal but formed a strengthened

But this isn't the first week of September, either . . . Erin had a far more favorable environment than this, and it still didn't develop until it had reached halfway across the pond . . .


Just remember that it's June and we should be happy that these things have convection at all . . .

yes i agree .. it was more a statement of example that SAL is not always the culprit!!! geeezss

and yes .. thank you for your history report .. but again "for june" i like i said before its a very storng wave .. but i guess i forgot to mention that at the end of my sentence up there ... so i edited it .. happy

[Chacor]

Dude, no need to go all defensive and jump on him like that.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

i wonder if it might have a small window
of opportunity for possible brief development.

[Fego]

Why is so important that this wave break away from the ITCZ?

[Aric Dunn]

Why is so important that this wave break away from the ITCZ?

to be brief .. the ITCZ is a boundry for the most part and if you look at that loop i posted you will see the itcz extending sw ..
pretty much it disrupts the overall circulation by not allowing a well defined SW inflow . so the circulation has trouble .. remember chris last year that is perfect example ...

[Anthonyl]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

As per the above satellite view you can better put into perspective the deeper SAL in respect to the TW.

[cycloneye]

AXNT20 KNHC 231757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ADDED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 15W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
200 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-12N.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

The above is the 2:05 PM EDT discussion of the new wave.

Let's see if it survives the long treck thru the Atlantic,but it has a long ladder to climb with the sal,cooler sst's and moderate shear between Western Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

[HUC]

Sal and dry,very stable conditions,not give a single chance to that wave....

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html



The interesting data from these Senegal Observations are the fairly low pressures recorded as this wave moved thru.However,no matter if waves with low pressures exit Africa,it's the enviroment that rules down the road and right now is not favorable.

[Air Force Met]

May be is too soon to have something with this system, but it's interesting.

It's too soon. Water temps are too cool and the air is too stable. Looking at an IR shot you can see all the stable stratocu out ahead of it.

If it can keep some good cyclonic curvature...it may do something once it approaches 50W...but look for it to fizzle convectivly pretty quick. Nice looking wave now though...but still too early for this season.