Midweek tropical wave for Florida

[boca]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
159 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2007






.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS WAS IMPRESSIVE NOT ONLY WITH THE
WEATHER TRENDS BUT TIMING. THE GOOD NEWS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES IS
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED...THOUGH TIMING IS BECOMING A BIT MORE IN
FOCUS. THE BIG STORY REMAINS THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A ROBUST
EASTERLY WAVE BY TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH MOVES
BODILY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN FRIDAY. LET`S HOPE THIS
TREND CONTINUES UNCHANGED AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...AS CLOUDINESS
AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE (OR MORE) RAINS WOULD HELP MANY WHO
HAVE REMAINED DRY THROUGH JUNE.

FIRST...WE WILL STILL HAVE ONE MORE HOT AND RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE DAY
ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...HAVE NOW ADDED A RANGE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH THE NATURE COAST
PERHAPS MISSING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE FIRST LIKELY (60) PERCENT CHANCES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS
PRECEDED BY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. DIURNALLY...HEAVIER RAINS ARE
NOT FAVORED AT NIGHT UNLESS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED...BUT
THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS DEEP
LAYER FLOW BEGINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EASES TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY REMAINS A QUESTION MARK...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER THE WAVE BECOMES STATIONARY...CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
STATE...OR GETS PICKED UP BY YET ANOTHER EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.

FOR NOW...HAVE BROAD BRUSHED 50/50 CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY TAILED BACK TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
QPF...AS MENTIONED ABOVE A LOT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND
ORGANIZATION...SO CONTINUE TO RUN GENERIC ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
AMOUNTS EACH 12-HOUR PERIOD MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WILL CERTAINLY EVALUATE QPF AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTER TERM...BUT
THE GOOD NEWS IS MOST RIVERS...AND THE AQUIFER...CAN USE WHAT WOULD
BE BENEFICIAL RAINS. STAY TUNED

.



.Tampa says that a tropical wave will develop over the SE Bahamas and move over the state, whereas Miami says the tropical wave is between 40 and 50w.How can these offices have such different outcomes to Wednesday's event?

[windstorm99]

Not seeing anything out there right now boca but some models do indicate the possibility of a weak wave passing threw south florida in the next couple of days.Nothing significant though.Adrian

NWS out of miami-8:25pm

A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO COME
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO

Its been crazy hot the past few days...

[MiamiensisWx]

The discrepancies depend upon which dynamical models (or real-time satellite/sfc obs) the NWS offices are utilizing in their discussions. Unlike the Miami office, the Tampa/Ruskin office uses another method in their latest discussion and/or forecasts. The Miami discussion is relying upon the GFS ensembles, which typically generate spurious convective feedback and brings energy too far to the west. Many wave forecasts (based upon long-range GFS guidance) never verify correctly; thus, Florida experiences fewer easterly waves than originally prognosticated by the models.

[windstorm99]

Iam more intrigued with the monster ridge the gfs and the euro model are developing in the next few days.It looks like the trofiness pattern we've had the past few weeks might let up a little bit.

[boca]

Not seeing anything out there right now boca but some models do indicate the possibility of a weak wave passing threw south florida in the next couple of days.Nothing significant though.Adrian

NWS out of miami-8:25pm

A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO COME
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO

Its been crazy hot the past few days...

Windstorm99 on a side note you mentioned the heat my car thermometer registered 99°F yesterday for 10 minutes going 75mph on the turnpike. It never registered that high before.

[MiamiensisWx]

Not seeing anything out there right now boca but some models do indicate the possibility of a weak wave passing threw south florida in the next couple of days.Nothing significant though.Adrian

NWS out of miami-8:25pm

A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO COME
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO

Its been crazy hot the past few days...

Windstorm99 on a side note you mentioned the heat my car thermometer registered 99°F yesterday for 10 minutes going 75mph on the turnpike. It never registered that high before.

That measurement may have been anomalous. The A/C settings (and other factors) can affect your thermometer. Your car reading may have been too high, but it reflects the effects of high humidity values combined with oppressive heat. It is remarkable that temperatures exceeded 90°F at locations that were close to the coast. The weak seabreeze did not improve the situation. My location reached 93 degrees. It was definitely hot outside!

[NcentralFlaguy]

still looks to be on track...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
234 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SE COAST WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
AND EAST COAST FL SEABREEZE FRONTS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SEABREEZES MOVE INLAND AND
COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR. POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS/DOWNBURST IN STRONGER STORMS DUE TO DRY LAYER IN MID LEVELS
AND CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DEEPEN
THE SE FLOW AND MOISTEN THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS AND POPS WILL BECOME CLOSER TO CLIMO BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM...MODELS STILL INDICATE A TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK. PWATS EXCEED 2
INCHES BEGINNING THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH..

[windstorm99]

Miami NWS afternoon discussion...

THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SO THE POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM ISOLATED COVERAGE
ON TUESDAY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Nothing to significant here looks like a rather weak TW.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hopefully the heavy rains come from this.

[Recurve]

Key West discussion mentions TUTT moving through Florida from Bahamas.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
342 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARY COLLISIONS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS WATERSPOUTS ON
THE FLORIDA BAY...BOTH NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WITHIN
THE SECOND CLOUD LINE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF NEAR 2 INCHES IN EASTERN MARATHON
AND LONG KEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE
LYING ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT.

.FORECAST...
A LOW AND MID LEVEL (1000-500 MB) ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ISLAND OF CUBA WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH(TUTT) WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DEPARTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLIMO POPS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE
TO FRESH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN AN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE KMIA-KEYW TWEB ROUTE...AND AT
THE KEYW AND KMTH ISLAND TERMINALS. LOCAL MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS AT THE KEYW AND KMTH TERMINALS WILL BE VARIABLE AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 90 80 89 / 30 30 30 40
MARATHON 82 92 80 92 / 30 30 30 40
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...AL
DATA COLLECTION.......LK/TT

[Cyclone1]

Hooray! rain for us Floridians!

[windstorm99]

Let the parade of cold-fronts continue.

LATER IN THE WEEK A VERY
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
AND OUR STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ONCE AGAIN SO IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR
CONVECTION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

As for the TW set to move into south florida it actually looks it will stay to our south but the northern end of it may clip us and bring some scattered activity to south florida.

[Recurve]

Some great waterspout pictures at:

Story:
Waterspouts rise in Middle Keys (The Keynoter)
Image Gallery (locals' photos)


Also, interesting KW discussion 4pm Monday:
"lengthy and deep" TUTT and the "SHARP AND WELL PRONOUNCED" tropical wave --both moving from the Bahamas to South Florida...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LINES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ONLY 3 FUNNEL CLOUDS ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WERE OBSERVED. WITH THE LATEST KBYW VWP
DEPICTING AN INCREASING AND BACKING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND OF 30
KNOTS AT 6000 FEET...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR WATERSPOUT
FORMATION IS JUST ABOUT CLOSED. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE
DETECTING A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVE RTHE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS REVEAL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A LENGTHY AND DEEP TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH(TUTT)
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE WEST CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AND THEN
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SHARP AND
WELL PRONOUNCED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL TRACK WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
DEPARTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC SYSTEM...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW SOUTH FLORIDA CONVECTION TO PUSH INTO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...(PWAT 2.0 INCHES)...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
RAIN CHANCE. WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE BACKSIDE WHICH SHOULD BE
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HENCE...SOLID
CHANCE POPS WILL BE REPLACED BY LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH CHANGEABLE AND PLENTY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND NEAR THE KEYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN PWAT
VALUES OF NEAR 2.0 INCHES...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...AS A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATES ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY WHEN AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE
REQUIRED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ON KEYS WATERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...........AL
DATA ACQUISITION............LK/MP

[boca]

Once that ULL gets into the SE Gulf that nice moisture slug should come over us tomorrow thats east of the Bahamas now. The tropical wave behind the ULL should clip us too.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

Two large blobs of convection headed Florida's way (how's that for technical talk?) - looks like most of the peninsula will finally see heavy rain mid-to-late week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

[boca]

Here's a Bahamian radar site I found.
http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/

[wxman57]

...
.Tampa says that a tropical wave will develop over the SE Bahamas and move over the state, whereas Miami says the tropical wave is between 40 and 50w.How can these offices have such different outcomes to Wednesday's event?

Tropical waves don't "develop" over the Bahamas. We've followed this tropical wave for the past 8 days since it moved off the west coast of Africa. Currently, its axis is along 70W extending from just east of the Bahamas south through the DR and continuing south across the Caribbean to central Venezuela. You can find it easily on a long-term water vapor loop.

The wave is interacting with an upper level low now over the northern Bahamas. No chance of tropical development that I can see, but a good chance that the system could give you folks in Florida some relief.

One final note, I continue to see some of you using the word "threw" instead of "through", as in "a wave passing through the Bahamas" vs. "a wave passing threw the Bahamas". In case English isn't your native language, I'd point out that the word "threw" is a verb, as in "he threw the ball". The proper word is "through". At least 3 of you are making this same mistake.

[TheRingo]

But I thought the wave was throughn threw the ull.

[Opal storm]

Wxman57, you agree that the wave will be going threw the Bahamas?

[gatorcane]

The tropical wave is starting to flare up -- here comes the rains for South Florida.