This Morning's Extended Forecast Discussion Is Interesting

[crownweather]

I picked up on this part of this morning's HPC Extended Forecast Discussion quite interesting:

CONUS GFS ENS MEAN ANALOGS FOR JULY AND AUG FOR YEARS 1954 1960
1988 1991 INDICATE A COOLER WET SUMMER FOR NEW ENG AND NORTHEAST
COAST AND NM/W TX. BEST SIGNAL FOR A HOT DRY SUMMER IN THE
MIDWEST/CENTRAL AND LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHWEST THRU THE CENTRAL AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS.

I find it interesting that the upper level pattern **could** set up in a way so that US East Coast tropical cyclones could be a threat. 1954: Carol, Edna, Hazel. 1960: Donna. 1988: Alberto and Chris, which were both August east coast tropical storms before big bad Gilbert. 1991: Bob.

Any thoughts or input into this. Full link to this discussion can be found at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[JBG]

I picked up on this part of this morning's HPC Extended Forecast Discussion quite interesting:

CONUS GFS ENS MEAN ANALOGS FOR JULY AND AUG FOR YEARS 1954 1960
1988 1991 INDICATE A COOLER WET SUMMER FOR NEW ENG AND NORTHEAST
COAST AND NM/W TX. BEST SIGNAL FOR A HOT DRY SUMMER IN THE
MIDWEST/CENTRAL AND LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHWEST THRU THE CENTRAL AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS.

I find it interesting that the upper level pattern **could** set up in a way so that US East Coast tropical cyclones could be a threat. 1954: Carol, Edna, Hazel. 1960: Donna. 1988: Alberto and Chris, which were both August east coast tropical storms before big bad Gilbert. 1991: Bob.

Any thoughts or input into this. Full link to this discussion can be found at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

Educate me on this. 1988 and 1991 were both extremely hot and dry summers for New England and Northeast. From a quick weather record check, 1954 was about average and 1960 indeed was cool.

Why the forecast for cool and wet weather, at the beginning of a La Nina?