GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Cycloneye I have been watching that intensity
potential map for months now and all I can
say is
"Scary!"
A large area of teh Atlantic can now support a category 5 hurricane
given other environmental conditions such as shear being
favorable.

[windstorm99]

All these factors will most probably add up to an above average hurricane season but if steering currents are your friend chances are we might get lucky again this season.No matter what the outlooks call for everyone must prepare for that chance that a tropical system may move over your community this season.

[cycloneye]

A large area of teh Atlantic can now support a category 5 hurricane
given other environmental conditions such as shear being
favorable.

You are right Tampa Bay.There are many factors besides the sst's one that are important when development is concerned and the upper level winds are a very important negative piece of the puzzle that are big hurdles for a disturbance that is trying to develop.Only look right now at 94L.Warm waters in the area but upper winds are hostil.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A large area of teh Atlantic can now support a category 5 hurricane
given other environmental conditions such as shear being
favorable.

You are right Tampa Bay.There are many factors besides the sst's one that are important when development is concerned and the upper level winds are a very important negative piece of the puzzle that are big hurdles for a disturbance that is trying to develop.Only look right now at 94L.Warm waters in the area but upper winds are hostil.

The upper level winds have saved us from having more intense
tropical systems...had their been less shear with barry
it could have been a lot stronger...and same for 94L

but this is normal for June...

Now My big worry is once the shear goes
down in August and September the
Caribbean and Gulf really need to hope
that storms stay away or else the storms
could bomb like crazy over those waters...
granted it may not be as hot waters as 2005
but it still is pretty hot in those waters.

[drezee]

night-time SSTs are on par with 2004

[windstorm99]

Here's another view of sst's across the basin...

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest data of the Atlantic anomalies.A rather big cool area in the Western Atlantic.The other areas are in a normal to maybe slightly above normal in small spots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Most of the Atlantic is near normal and cooler then normal over much of the western Atlantic. Looks pretty much normal, still stick with 14-16 named storms.

[Aquawind]

Well the SSTs around over here on the Gulfside of Florida are clearly warming well.. We have been hot, dry and sunny this week. I imgine a lot less blue on the map this week. We have alot of time to warm yet before prime time..

[windstorm99]

The entire atlantic as whole is running on slightly warmer then average.The MDR which is important is also quite cool.Overall i think CPC and the UKMET office maybe up to something as according to them this trend will persists threw the heart of the season.

If this continues we may not have such an active season as thought but still above normal.Adrian

[miamicanes177]

The entire atlantic as whole is running on slightly warmer then average.The MDR which is important is also quite cool.Overall i think CPC and the UKMET office maybe up to something as according to them this trend will persists threw the heart of the season.

If this continues we may not have such an active season as thought but still above normal.Adrian

Most of the Atlantic is near normal and cooler then normal over much of the western Atlantic. Looks pretty much normal, still stick with 14-16 named storms.

The TCHP and SST's accross the caribbean and GOM will be supportive of category 5 hurricanes in August, September, and October. The only thing to stop us from having 25+ named storms will be wind shear, SAL, and dry air. NOT SST's and TCHP. If we have 5kts of shear in the GOM and caribbean in the prime season then you can expect one of the worst hurricanes season imaginable.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As you can see from the Heat Potential Map Posted
by Cycloneye near the top of this page,
much of the caribbean can now support sub
880 mb hurricanes given the proper shear
conditions and other factors.

The Caribbean should be watching very
carefully this season, as the temps will
only get hotter by August and September
and the storms could get explosive...

[HeeBGBz]

Does this count as an inverted V?



If not, what constitutes one?

['CaneFreak]

Does this count as an inverted V?



If not, what constitutes one?

That looks more like the southern end of an upper level trough...an inverted v signature looks like well....an inverted v shape...like this....read this...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap2img/fig225.jpg
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap2/se201.htm
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap2img/fig226.jpg

[HeeBGBz]

Thanks. That's a lot of info to grasp. I'll bookmark the links.

[wxmann_91]

I think some here are underestimating the importance of the cold pool off the east coast. If it persists, I think the chances of homegrown storms would decrease dramatically; cool SSTs --> greater subsidence --> higher background SLP's --> less chance of TC development. This year might actually have many more CV storms than years past. Of course, this is assuming that cold pool persists or strengthens in the next few months, which it may or may not do.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SST_ ... _Day.shtml

[cycloneye]

23rd of June update of Atlantic Anomalies



Interesting rebound of the Atlantic Anomalies in this weeks update.Now let's see if this rebound sustains in the next updates in the comming weeks or this was only a fluctuation.

[windstorm99]

23rd of June update of Atlantic Anomalies



Interesting rebound of the Atlantic Anomalies in this weeks update.Now let's see if this rebound sustains in the next updates in the comming weeks or this was only a fluctuation.

Wow interesting rebound indeed...The question is will it continue?

[Aquawind]

As expected.. Impressive warming this last week. We had a record high of 98F today in Ft Myers and many other record highs in the area today with the same heat tomorrow. Then a tropical wave it to move through and cool temps with some rain, however this will be a trpical rain and is not expected to bring a bunch of cool dry air in after.. The heat will be back on when the clouds leave and back into the 90's. Any cooling looks to be nearly typical and temporary at this point. A bit surprised at the +2F in the central..

The local forecaster said we have 90F water at the beach. The sun angle just peaked so we have alot of angle yet. The Atl basin temps will flucuate but it's looking like things are going to be warm for prime time.