93E.INVEST

[Aric Dunn]

finally a east pac system with some potential..

invest 93l E

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251624
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT MON JUN 25 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR ACAPULCO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

I give it a 50% of becoming the next tropical cyclone of the season.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 251826
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC MON JUN 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932007) 20070625 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070625 1800 070626 0600 070626 1800 070627 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 100.5W 13.2N 103.3W 14.1N 106.2W 14.9N 108.9W
BAMD 12.4N 100.5W 13.1N 103.3W 14.0N 106.4W 14.8N 109.2W
BAMM 12.4N 100.5W 13.1N 103.0W 13.9N 106.0W 14.7N 108.9W
LBAR 12.4N 100.5W 13.4N 103.5W 14.6N 107.0W 15.7N 110.8W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070627 1800 070628 1800 070629 1800 070630 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 111.6W 17.0N 116.6W 18.4N 121.7W 19.6N 127.3W
BAMD 15.4N 111.7W 16.5N 115.5W 17.1N 118.5W 17.3N 121.1W
BAMM 15.2N 111.7W 16.4N 116.6W 17.7N 121.2W 19.0N 126.2W
LBAR 16.3N 114.4W 17.6N 120.4W 19.4N 125.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 47KTS 36KTS 27KTS
DSHP 48KTS 47KTS 36KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 100.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 98.2W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 95.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


It looks like the models have it as a weak to moderate storm and that will be it.But it was about time something forms in that basin as it was very quiet after Barbara was around in late May.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 261237
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC TUE JUN 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932007) 20070626 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070626 1200 070627 0000 070627 1200 070628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 105.0W 14.4N 108.2W 15.2N 111.4W 16.0N 114.3W
BAMD 13.4N 105.0W 14.4N 108.5W 15.1N 111.6W 15.6N 114.2W
BAMM 13.4N 105.0W 14.3N 108.2W 14.9N 111.3W 15.5N 114.1W
LBAR 13.4N 105.0W 14.3N 108.3W 15.3N 111.8W 16.0N 115.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070628 1200 070629 1200 070630 1200 070701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 117.1W 17.4N 122.7W 18.3N 128.6W 19.0N 134.9W
BAMD 16.0N 116.6W 16.4N 120.4W 16.5N 123.9W 15.9N 127.9W
BAMM 15.9N 116.8W 16.9N 121.7W 17.9N 126.8W 18.4N 132.0W
LBAR 16.7N 118.3W 18.2N 123.6W 20.2N 127.2W 20.4N 128.5W
SHIP 44KTS 39KTS 27KTS 15KTS
DSHP 44KTS 39KTS 27KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 105.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 101.6W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 99.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

This is the 12:00z update from the tropical models.Cosme may appear in a weak stage but not last very long.

[Roxy]

Hey guys, there used to be a site where you could use the pull down menu to get the model tracks for the invests. Does anyone have that? Does it still work?

Thanks in advance if so.

[Chacor]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ <--- this one?

[Roxy]

That's good, thanks.

[Chacor]

After five days...

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291618
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI JUN 29 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT
800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS
DIMINISHED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[benny]

Poof!