GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[cycloneye]

The sun angle just peaked so we have alot of angle yet. The Atl basin temps will flucuate but it's looking like things are going to be warm for prime time.

Paul,I haved seen some recent forecasts from NCEP of cooler anomalies going into September but time will tell the true story about that especially after the most recent update of the rebound in the anomalies temps that I posted earlier.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well... Being in an Warm Cycle in the Atlantic, I'm not really too sure that, its going to have too , too much of an adverse effect on development. Temps out past the Caribbean in 2005 were much above normal, and yet most development was in the Caribbean, Homegrown and S. Gom.

I'm not quite so sure it will offer that much of a haven for tropical systems once July and August come rolling around.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 5.2007.gif

[Aquawind]

Luis, I assume your referring to this CPC forecast that was actually updated today.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif

I am not sure how accurate are these forecasts are but as with most forecasts they can be wrong. Seems like upwelling along the east coast and a strong Azores keeping the eastern MDR a tad cool. Is a data outside of the La Nina area reliable? I dunno.. but looking at the current anomalies and trend I don't see much upwelling or cooling in the present pattern.

I think things are pointing to a very near normal SSTs in the Atl Basin other than that graphical forecast. Just as last years surprise el nino showed it's head I think this years la nina will not show it's head as much as those maps do. I mean wow they have a massive expantion of cool water.. When I read the latest MJO summary yesterday it show the heat content pushed well east recently. Ahh yes it's Reality vs Forecast. The trend is increasing warm anomalies in both basins.

[cycloneye]

Luis, I assume your referring to this CPC forecast that was actually updated today.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif" target="_blank" target="_blank

I am not sure how accurate are these forecasts are but as with most forecasts they can be wrong. Seems like upwelling along the east coast and a strong Azores keeping the eastern MDR a tad cool. Is a data outside of the La Nina area reliable? I dunno.. but looking at the current anomalies and trend I don't see much upwelling or cooling in the present pattern.

I think things are pointing to a very near normal SSTs in the Atl Basin other than that graphical forecast. Just as last years surprise el nino showed it's head I think this years la nina will not show it's head as much as those maps do. I mean wow they have a massive expantion of cool water.. When I read the latest MJO summary yesterday it show the heat content pushed well east recently. Ahh yes it's Reality vs Forecast. The trend is increasing warm anomalies in both basins.

Yes Paul it's that one. Now let's see if that sst's cooling trend forecast verifies or the warming observed in the weekly update that I posted yesterday keeps going.

[wxmann_91]

Luis, I assume your referring to this CPC forecast that was actually updated today.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif" target="_blank" target="_blank

I am not sure how accurate are these forecasts are but as with most forecasts they can be wrong. Seems like upwelling along the east coast and a strong Azores keeping the eastern MDR a tad cool. Is a data outside of the La Nina area reliable? I dunno.. but looking at the current anomalies and trend I don't see much upwelling or cooling in the present pattern.

I think things are pointing to a very near normal SSTs in the Atl Basin other than that graphical forecast. Just as last years surprise el nino showed it's head I think this years la nina will not show it's head as much as those maps do. I mean wow they have a massive expantion of cool water.. When I read the latest MJO summary yesterday it show the heat content pushed well east recently. Ahh yes it's Reality vs Forecast. The trend is increasing warm anomalies in both basins.

Note that that's not the CPC forecast. Those are CFS forecasts. The CFS is a long-term climate model. Sorry for being nitpicky but I wanted clear a misconception. The CPC can use the CFS in its forecast, but usually will use it along with other factors.

The actual CPC forecasts can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... ooks.shtml" target="_blank

[Aquawind]

Well said wxmann_91. Thanks for the clarification.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Of intriguing note is the increasing heat content oceanic
heat content that is:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 7176at.jpg

80-110 kJ/cm2 across the Caribbean in some spots...that could
if it continues heating up fuel some very potent storms by
August/September.

[windstorm99]

Mid 80's in alot of places...

New look.

[cycloneye]

windstorm99 posted the graphic for the Caribbean,Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic but here is the entire Atlantic.However,as we know only the sst's is one factor as there are more things that cause systems to develop or fizele.

[cycloneye]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

HUGE cool down for the north-central Atlatnic. 50-60 west at 20-30 north...

[TheRingo]

it's very interesting the Caribbean TCHP comparisons with 2005:





it seems to be passing up the 2005's temps.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The caribbean looks to be holding a good amount more punch then 2005. The southern part near south America and southwestern part near central America as less...But the northwest Caribbean could easly support cat5s. Also the tchp is 2 degrees farther north into the western Atlatnic instead of 21 north as of 2005, its 24 north this years +3 degrees northward. The Gulf "eddie" or loop current is stronger to. That is not to say this season will be anything like 2005.

[cycloneye]

Above is the animation of the heat content in the Caribbean Sea.The Western and NW Caribbean are the most warmest areas.Look at the legend on the right side and see what those orange and red colors represent.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given Reduced Shear due to hotter water,

With Caribbean Oceanic Heat Content exceeding 2005
values...August and September could
be very severe hurricane months...with some
storms approaching monster strength...

In fact I expect a Caribbean storm season this
year that could quite possibly be one of the most
severe ever recorded...

Oceanic Heat Content Values are close
to the highest ever...for this time of year...

[hurricanetrack]

My goodness, that comparison to 2005 is incredible. How is it that we are now seeing higher heat content in the same areas where it was lower than in the record-breaking 2005 season?

To me, the MDR temps mean little overall since the big 4 canes of '05 reached their peaks well west of 60 longitude: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma. And THOSE same areas now have higher heat content than at this same time in 2005? That is indeed interesting. Since we all like to learn here- anyone out there want to take a stab at what this might mean later on- and why we are seeing these higher readings? And, will they last?

[GeneratorPower]

Mark, I'll take a stab. Getting strong hurricanes means that all the right ingredients have to be in place. A Cat 5 hurricane requires nearly ideal conditions in all respects to maintain that level of strength. Just one negative factor could severely reduce its strength. So if you don't have any negatives, you get a perfect environment for strengthening. What this means for the upcoming season is that heat content may not be a negative factor for development and strengthening. That eliminates a major player in the disruption of hurricanes.

So it means we need to focus even more on other factors when it gets down to showtime.

[NDG]

HUGE cool down for the north-central Atlatnic. 50-60 west at 20-30 north...

Yes, it has cool down some in the past ten days, but it is still well above average in that area.

[Cyclenall]

*cut*

Above is the animation of the heat content in the Caribbean Sea.The Western and NW Caribbean are the most warmest areas.Look at the legend on the right side and see what those orange and red colors represent.

Notice June 29th compared to the previous day. That was fast (could be a glitch).

it's very interesting the Caribbean TCHP comparisons with 2005:

That is quite something. Combine that with this thread's information and you got yourself a Dennis making machine. I wonder what's going to happen in the tropics on July 5, 2007

That is not to say this season will be anything like 2005.

It's got me thinking though, what were the exact conditions in early July 2005 in the Atlantic? That means what was the MJO phase in, what shear across the basin, moisture content, etc. Another thing was pressures in the Caribbean were lower then normal and I think this year is the same case (most likely not to 2005's extent) but if things match up, again, a Dennis making machine is born .

(I'm not being totally serious with this post, mostly about the Caribbean pumping out historic hurricanes!)

[TheRingo]

I think it has something to do with the loop currents.

Looking at 2005 you see a strong loop current mainly in the gulf.


But in 2007 you are seeing stronger currents in the caribbean. I believe this could be pulling more heat content into these areas.


or possibly the lack of a strong gulf current like in 2005 is leaving more heat to buildup in the caribbeans.