ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 6/18/07 Update=Neutral next 3 months
Isn't there more "landfalling" storms in Neutral years? From what I know most storms in La nina years are fish.
0 likes
So, to sum it all up thus far, La Nina is a pretty name and El Nino is...not such a pretty name...or the other way around.
And (ok, I'm getting technical now, bear with me) they do a dance with one partner taking the stage and the other subsuming...until for some reason, they switch it all around and keep the audience enthralled as to who will be the Bandstand winner! The music keeps playing!
Thanks! I get it now
And (ok, I'm getting technical now, bear with me) they do a dance with one partner taking the stage and the other subsuming...until for some reason, they switch it all around and keep the audience enthralled as to who will be the Bandstand winner! The music keeps playing!
Thanks! I get it now

0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 6/18/07 Update=Neutral next 3 months
Climate Prediction Center 6/18/07 Update,pdf form
In case any members missed the big news of the day as it's another page,here it is.









In case any members missed the big news of the day as it's another page,here it is.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 6/18/07 Update=Neutral next 3 months

Above is the latest Pacific anomalies data that shows what Climate Prediction Center said in their update earlier today.The cool waters are less bigger than before.
0 likes
Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 6/18/07 Update=Neutral next 3 months
HouTXmetro wrote:Isn't there more "landfalling" storms in Neutral years? From what I know most storms in La nina years are fish.
I haven't yet studied the Gulf Coast in this regard in detail, but I'd say that this clearly hasn't been true for the east coast of the US from GA to ME as a whole when comparing the neutral cat. to the moderate to strong La Nina cat. for DIRECT H hits during especially +AMO regimes. As a matter of fact, the five moderate to strong La Nina years during +AMO regime since 1950 (1954, 1955, 1964, 1998, and 1999) ALL had at least one H hit in just GA-NC alone resulting in a total of EIGHT H's! However, stats for GA-NC since 1950 actually do show the WEAK La Nina cat. years to have had FEWER direct H hits (only one of nine years for both AMO regimes combined ) than the "neutral negative" ("NN") years (7 of 14 with a direct H hit there during both AMO regimes). Keep in mind that I use the fall/winter NINO 3.4 trimonthly "peak" to classify a hurricane season as opposed to just using the peak during the hurricane season itself. That is because I believe that 3.4 SST anom.'s tend to be a bit of a leading indicator as opposed to concurrent or lagging.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 6/18/07 Update=Neutral next 3 months

Notice in this loop of the subsurface waters,how the blue cool waters shrink a bit and the warm yellows expand.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... nical.html
This private firm that dedicaes to predict ENSO,has done good in past years,But judging by this years predictions,they have been a bit off because La Nina has not made an appearance yet.However,they keep insisting that at least a weak La Nina will appear by the ladder part of 2007.
Below is an excerpt of their June discussion.
Current Conditions
As of mid-June 2007 SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific remain below average, but their longitudinal extent is less than last month. The below average anomalies have contracted eastward and now only extend to approximately 130W. In late May 2007, westerly wind anomalies extended across much of the equatorial Pacific and advected warm Western Pacific water eastward. In addition, they allowed the shallow thermocline anomalies, associated with the cold SST anomalies, to diminish. While shallow thermocline anomalies still exist in the central Pacific, they are weaker than observed in May, and are now overlaid with warm anomalies in the mixed layer due to the aforementioned wind-driven advection.
Since early June, enhanced easterly Trade Winds have reappeared across the equatorial Pacific. These are reinforcing the shallow thermocline anomalies, and beginning to enhance the magnitude and extent of the eastern Pacific cold SST anomalies through advection. One of the most relevant aspects to this ENSO outlook is the persistence of these shallow thermocline anomalies since early 2007, even though they may have waned recently; they are indicative of slowly evolving changes in the equatorial Pacific typically associated with developing ENSO events. This suggests the possibility for a La Nina event to develop over the next few months.
This private firm that dedicaes to predict ENSO,has done good in past years,But judging by this years predictions,they have been a bit off because La Nina has not made an appearance yet.However,they keep insisting that at least a weak La Nina will appear by the ladder part of 2007.
Below is an excerpt of their June discussion.
Current Conditions
As of mid-June 2007 SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific remain below average, but their longitudinal extent is less than last month. The below average anomalies have contracted eastward and now only extend to approximately 130W. In late May 2007, westerly wind anomalies extended across much of the equatorial Pacific and advected warm Western Pacific water eastward. In addition, they allowed the shallow thermocline anomalies, associated with the cold SST anomalies, to diminish. While shallow thermocline anomalies still exist in the central Pacific, they are weaker than observed in May, and are now overlaid with warm anomalies in the mixed layer due to the aforementioned wind-driven advection.
Since early June, enhanced easterly Trade Winds have reappeared across the equatorial Pacific. These are reinforcing the shallow thermocline anomalies, and beginning to enhance the magnitude and extent of the eastern Pacific cold SST anomalies through advection. One of the most relevant aspects to this ENSO outlook is the persistence of these shallow thermocline anomalies since early 2007, even though they may have waned recently; they are indicative of slowly evolving changes in the equatorial Pacific typically associated with developing ENSO events. This suggests the possibility for a La Nina event to develop over the next few months.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
Climate Prediction Center 25 of June update
They are almost throwing the towel about having La Nina for the rest of 2007.As all of you know,last week's update was the turnaround of CPC in terms of predicting la nina for the next 1-3 months as they changed the tune that this week's update confirms.







They are almost throwing the towel about having La Nina for the rest of 2007.As all of you know,last week's update was the turnaround of CPC in terms of predicting la nina for the next 1-3 months as they changed the tune that this week's update confirms.
0 likes
Well, that explains the continued shear over the Gulf - it makes sense as to why things, aside from the two weak systems so far, are very quiet...
Sounds fine (if we could just get lots of rain)....
Truly, I'm surprised that the numbers from NOAA and CSU were so high - just goes to show how much is not known (just as well, as far as I'm concerned)...
Sounds fine (if we could just get lots of rain)....
Truly, I'm surprised that the numbers from NOAA and CSU were so high - just goes to show how much is not known (just as well, as far as I'm concerned)...
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 233
- Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:27 pm
- Location: New York, NY
Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:Climate Prediction Center 25 of June update
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
They are almost throwing the towel about having La Nina for the rest of 2007.As all of you know,last week's update was the turnaround of CPC in terms of predicting la nina for the next 1-3 months as they changed the tune that this week's update confirms.
They may have scaled back the wording, but they are hardly throwing in the towel. From the summary page:
CPC wrote:•A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate SST anomalies will become increasingly negative during the next
several months.
•Several dynamical models have been predicting the rapid transition to La Niña in 1-3 months, but statistical models and recent trends in
surface and subsurface ocean temperatures suggest either a slower evolution toward La Niña conditions or the continuation of ENSO-
neutral conditions.
To me, those points do not equal "Very Slim La Nina chance"
0 likes
Re: CPC 6/25/07 Update=Very Slim La Nina chance for rest of 2007
2004 was neutral with a late-nino that cut off the October storms. 2005 was a neutral year...and obviously 2006 was a moderate nino.
04 and 05 were caused by very warm SST's in the Atlantic coupled with reduced shear.
So far this year, we have seen little activity not because of a lack of a La Nina episode, but because, unless you get frontal development you typically don't see development in June. And I wouldn't be at all shocked if we had no development in July.
This is going to be a late-starting season...and I am going to be watching Atlantic SST anoms very, very closely. That...to me...is the bigger story. If they continue to cool...everyone is going to lower their numbers a little in the next forecast.
MW
04 and 05 were caused by very warm SST's in the Atlantic coupled with reduced shear.
So far this year, we have seen little activity not because of a lack of a La Nina episode, but because, unless you get frontal development you typically don't see development in June. And I wouldn't be at all shocked if we had no development in July.
This is going to be a late-starting season...and I am going to be watching Atlantic SST anoms very, very closely. That...to me...is the bigger story. If they continue to cool...everyone is going to lower their numbers a little in the next forecast.
MW
0 likes
- windstorm99
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1578
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Contact:
Re: CPC 6/25/07 Update=Very Slim La Nina chance for rest of 2007
No surprise here in my opinion...But i still think we will see a fairly active season as far as numbers go but were will the general tracks be this season no one knows.Numbers are not important and people should not put to much focus on what the outlooks released are calling for but infact always be prepared cause it only takes one to ruin lives.Adrian 

0 likes
Re: CPC 6/25/07 Update=Very Slim La Nina chance for rest of 2007
Also, if the timing is right, the "over the next several months" forecast would mean that it'd likely be sometime in September or later (since it's almost July), so, depending on when the northern jet stream begins it's southward migration, the change to a more favorable environment for hurricanes might come too late for this season...
0 likes
heat still dropping in the pacific. would wait until the next enso update to see where we are. The SOI has moved up. Seems to indicate the trade winds will be removing more surface heat.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... /cphhp.gif
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi30.png
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... /cphhp.gif
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi30.png
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
TheRingo wrote:heat still dropping in the pacific. would wait until the next enso update to see where we are. The SOI has moved up. Seems to indicate the trade winds will be removing more surface heat.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... /cphhp.gif" target="_blank
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi30.png" target="_blank
The next ENSO update will come from the Aussies (BoM) in a few hours so let's see what they have to say.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Breaking News=BoM 6/27/07=Renewed signs of La Niña developme
BoM 6/27/07 Update
Link above
Summary: Renewed signs of La Niña development
After stalling for around a month, there are renewed signs from the Pacific Basin which are consistent with the early stages of a La Niña event. Furthermore, computer models have been unwavering in their predictions of a La Niña forming during winter.
The SOI has risen sharply, the Trade Winds are much stronger than average and the cloud cover in the Pacific near the equator has been consistently below normal during June. These are all positive indicators for a possible La Niña. The signal in the ocean is not as strong as a month or two back, mainly as a result of transient warming in response to weakened Trade Winds in May. However, the eastern Pacific remains cooler than average and a persistence of strong Trade Winds should see this cooling intensify and spread to the west.
Above is an excerpt of the update from the Aussies.
Now let's see if all of these trends of the trade winds,SOI etc sustain for another couple of months to see if finnally La Nina shows up or not.
Link above

Summary: Renewed signs of La Niña development
After stalling for around a month, there are renewed signs from the Pacific Basin which are consistent with the early stages of a La Niña event. Furthermore, computer models have been unwavering in their predictions of a La Niña forming during winter.
The SOI has risen sharply, the Trade Winds are much stronger than average and the cloud cover in the Pacific near the equator has been consistently below normal during June. These are all positive indicators for a possible La Niña. The signal in the ocean is not as strong as a month or two back, mainly as a result of transient warming in response to weakened Trade Winds in May. However, the eastern Pacific remains cooler than average and a persistence of strong Trade Winds should see this cooling intensify and spread to the west.
Above is an excerpt of the update from the Aussies.
Now let's see if all of these trends of the trade winds,SOI etc sustain for another couple of months to see if finnally La Nina shows up or not.
0 likes
Re: ENSO Updates=BoM 6/27/07=Renewed signs of La Niña
It certainly will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple months.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
Re: CPC 6/25/07 Update=Very Slim La Nina chance for rest of 2007
First, the season is off to an extremely rapid start as we are not even out of June and we have 2 named storms. Second, Atlantic SST's are warming, not cooling. Compare SST's month by month and tell me if you see they are warmer June 27 than they were May 27. That is not a cooling trend. I predict the gray/klotchbach forecast will be at least kept the same. SST's are warmer than you think and come August/September I expect them to warm enough in the Caribbean/GOM to support a hurricane of category 5 intensity. SAL, wind shear, and dry air will be the things to monitor, not SST's.MWatkins wrote:This is going to be a late-starting season...and I am going to be watching Atlantic SST anoms very, very closely. That...to me...is the bigger story. If they continue to cool...everyone is going to lower their numbers a little in the next forecast.
MW
0 likes
- GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates=BoM 6/27/07 Update=Renewed signs of La Niña
ENSO June Models Update
Link to information is above
SUMMARY:
International dynamic coupled climate models have for several months been predicting a La Niña event to develop during 2007. Observations from the tropical Pacific Ocean have supported the potential for the event to develop, but the cooling has to date been slow and has stalled for the last month. However, despite the dissipation of a pool of cold subsurface water in the central to eastern Pacific, current conditions are now more favourable for the development of a La Niña: the trade winds have intensified, sea surface temperatures are cooling again and the SOI has risen rapidly in the last month (30-day mean value on 25 June was +11.7). See our ENSO Wrap-up for more details.
The dynamic climate models that are surveyed here are all predicting cooling of the central tropical Pacific Ocean in the next month or two. All these models have consistently predicted a La Niña for the second half of 2007. Over the past two months there has been little change in the strength of the event they have predicted put the timing of strongest cooling has been pushed back by about one month.
All six models forecast NINO3 values below the La Niña threshold by August. By December, four of the five model predictions available predict these cool conditions to persist but for them to have weakened.
Above is the discussion about the June's models update.As I said earlier today,let's see in the next couple of months how the equatorial Pacific is to see if the trend towards a weak La Nina comes thru or it stays Neutral.
However,I can say with confidence that El Nino will not surprise us during the rest of 2007.
Link to information is above

SUMMARY:
International dynamic coupled climate models have for several months been predicting a La Niña event to develop during 2007. Observations from the tropical Pacific Ocean have supported the potential for the event to develop, but the cooling has to date been slow and has stalled for the last month. However, despite the dissipation of a pool of cold subsurface water in the central to eastern Pacific, current conditions are now more favourable for the development of a La Niña: the trade winds have intensified, sea surface temperatures are cooling again and the SOI has risen rapidly in the last month (30-day mean value on 25 June was +11.7). See our ENSO Wrap-up for more details.
The dynamic climate models that are surveyed here are all predicting cooling of the central tropical Pacific Ocean in the next month or two. All these models have consistently predicted a La Niña for the second half of 2007. Over the past two months there has been little change in the strength of the event they have predicted put the timing of strongest cooling has been pushed back by about one month.
All six models forecast NINO3 values below the La Niña threshold by August. By December, four of the five model predictions available predict these cool conditions to persist but for them to have weakened.
Above is the discussion about the June's models update.As I said earlier today,let's see in the next couple of months how the equatorial Pacific is to see if the trend towards a weak La Nina comes thru or it stays Neutral.
However,I can say with confidence that El Nino will not surprise us during the rest of 2007.
0 likes