Relative to June 25-Wave in Central Atlantic Looks Very Good

['CaneFreak]

Yep....TCHP is tropical cyclone heat potential....sorry...misspelled that....LOL...no but really you should type it in a search engine one day....you will get atleast a 100,000 hits...check it out...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The local met on abcactionnews said that this wave
once it gets into the GOM after crossing
florida may need to be "watched for development"
but that nothing was imminent...so there is a
chance for this thing to develop in the GOM.
Why?
Let me add my own reasonings:
1. The Sea Surface Temperatures support explosive development
2. The wave itself will pull substantial moisture into the Gulf of Mexico
3. Shear will be decreasing over the GOM
as a strong Bermuda Ridge builds in over the eastern
Atlantic shunting the shear producing tropical jet to
the north.

I am going to have to disagree with this statement for a few reasons:

1) The temperature of the Ocean has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...warm ssts increase this chance somewhat but as I have said MUCHAS VECES (many times) SSTS DO NOT DICTATE INTENSITY....THCP DICTATES INTENSITY...I am not going to say this again....DID CHARLEY EXPLODE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO HIGH SSTS? NO!!!!!! It exploded due to the THCP values over 100 kJ/cm squared water...not the 85 degree SSTS..you can have 90 degree water but if the THCP is low....THERE WILL BE NO EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERIOD!!!!!!!!! THCP is like octane fuel to a monster engine...it loves this octane....
2) The shear in the East Atlantic has nothing to do with what the shear may be like further on down the road the further west you go...it just has ABSOLUTELY NO CORRELATION!!! So, there is no way of knowing just by looking at the shear maps for the eastern Atlantic...Sorry but it just doesn't...And a bermuda high does not necessarily mean that the shear will be lower in any particular part of the atlantic. For example, we can have a stationary Bermuda high with 50 TUTTs all over the Atlantic Basin and environmental conditions still will not be favorable in the vicinity of these TUTTs.
3) A TROPICAL WAVE CAN NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF BASED ON ITS OWN MOISTURE...if a tropical wave can survive on the moisture it carries with itself, the death of many tropical waves would not have happened and I would not be here typing this post. If the environment in which a tropical wave is moving is drier than the environment in which the tropical wave is in at that current moment, then there will be no development from that particular wave in the direction it is moving. I hope you learned a lot from this post.

Thank you for the information. Good information. So it seems that shear
is relatively unfavorable at the current time, and as for TCHP it is
high thusfar only through some patches of the basin.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 7176at.jpg

So it seems the caribbean has some high heat potential up in the 80-100 kj/cm2
range...but the rest of the basin appears to be pretty much not explosive...

So given the right conditions, explosive development could take place
over the Caribbean
But the right conditions will not take place until August...when
climatologically speaking shear generally lowers.

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Wave still trekking across open Atlantic. I still see some reasonable chance for development. Thunderstorms have come back again this evening. Storms forming a sort of circular pattern. Weather ahead of the system looks more conducive for development now, as a trough is pulling out to the north. The way looks open to the Carib Islands. I think the flow will take the wave on a WNW course to about 12N (near Barbados). Speaking of the circular pattern of clouds, I've seen this in the past where a mid-level circulation could be in the making. I'll look for that tomorrow. Now, is all of this likely? Well I'm giving it "a shot". Percentage wise, I'm going with about a 30% chance for development. If a mid-level circulation forms, then I would think chances for development would go to about 50-60%. But right now, I'll say 30%. Here's the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The circular refiring of convection is interesting.
The ULL may aid in convective feeding ino the wave.

Also, the building in of a ridge has pushed the jet
further north and resulted in a small
area around this wave of some favorable
atmospheric conditions. Granted shear
may be high in other parts of the
basin except in this small area.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2) The shear in the East Atlantic has nothing to do with what the shear may be like further on down the road the further west you go...it just has ABSOLUTELY NO CORRELATION!!! So, there is no way of knowing just by looking at the shear maps for the eastern Atlantic...Sorry but it just doesn't...And a bermuda high does not necessarily mean that the shear will be lower in any particular part of the atlantic. For example, we can have a stationary Bermuda high with 50 TUTTs all over the Atlantic Basin and environmental conditions still will not be favorable in the vicinity of these TUTTs.

By lesser shear I meant the ridge reduces shear over a small area
near the wave...not over the whole basin...the rest of the basin
may be unfavorable, but a small pocket perhaps rendered
favorable by the ridge forcing the jet and thus
the shear temporarily further north. Granted
shear may be back over the area in just a few days.
Will be a wait and see situation regarding that.

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Tampa, thats what I meant about condtions becoming more favorable. You're right that in that area between the Wave and the Islands, conditions look pretty good. Now after that in Carib, well thats another story for another day. Its pretty easy to see that the hostile upper level conditions that were ahead of the the Wave have pulled off to the North. As usual, an organizing wave will take a slightly more northerly course. Thats why in my opening post, when I gave this wave a shot, I believed that it would take a course further north than most believed. (Toward the Islands at about 12N upon entering the Carribean Sea.). Perhaps the hostile upper level conditions which pulled north in advance of the wave have actually induced it to take a slightly more northerly course. No matter what now, I don't expect to see it "run into South America". Pretty certain it will gain latitude on a course toward the Carib. Like I say, I'm giving it about 30% chance tonight, to become a depression over the next several days.

[Nimbus]

I see three active waves in the ITZ along 10N. one near 37W one near 43W and one just north of Panama.

The SAL looks like it is lifting out ahead of the wave near 43W, but the wave may catch up to shear in front of it.

The second wave near 37W is over cooler water and can't do anything for a couple days.

The convection near Panama might be worth watching if some of the energy gets pulled north by the ULL over the gulf. I'm waiting for the official words "development will be slow".

[Berwick Bay]

That wave (or impulse) which I singled out for possible development on June 25 is now at about 52W on June 28. A large messy area beginning to approach the Barbados area at about 12N (which is about where I expected it to be, not "running in to South America". But I must admit, as large and messy as it is, it does not look like a developing system at this time. Still it is in that "most critical area" as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. I'll watch it as it does in fact approach the islands. The whole ITCZ has picked up quite a bit since I called attention to this area on June 25. I think we are now getting to that point where we can expect consistent waves to be ejected out of the tropical Atlantic and into the lower Carribean at about that 11-12 N Lat area. Here's the IR Loop showing the Wave still in the Atlantic, but now making its approach toward the Windward Islands.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1804.shtml?

[boca]

Berwick I didn't realize that you posted about this wave by Barbados in this thread. That's why I started mine. Opps. I think it has potential if it doesn't get ripped up by the shear.

[Berwick Bay]

Don't worry about it Boca. This thread has already been pushed way down the line (2 days old since last post, I think) when you posted your observations. Its all good.

[HURRICANELONNY]

One thing is for sure. The waves are holding together more then last year. Last year as soon as the waves entered the water most went poof. Less shear is already starting. As for the ENSO. I have no idea if it will be neutral or a La Nina. But one thing is for sure. And that is it will be more active then last year.

[Berwick Bay]

Aforementioned "Wave of June 25" now approaching extreme southern Lesser Antilles (south of Barbados, toward the Aruba area). Wave is battling impressive shear conditions, and fighting to hold its own. Here's the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[FlSteel]

Just an amateur, avid weather watcher here. But this wave seems to be doing well and holding it's own coming into the caribean. Should be fun to watch over the next couple of days.