Midweek tropical wave for Florida

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gatorcane
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#21 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:45 pm

boca wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Not seeing anything out there right now boca but some models do indicate the possibility of a weak wave passing threw south florida in the next couple of days.Nothing significant though.Adrian :wink:

NWS out of miami-8:25pm

A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WEST IS STILL FORECAST TO COME
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO

Its been crazy hot the past few days...


Windstorm99 on a side note you mentioned the heat my car thermometer registered 99°F yesterday for 10 minutes going 75mph on the turnpike. It never registered that high before.


When we lose the deep easterly flow here in South Florida, the heat goes way up.....when we have a nice easterly flow, the coast doesn't get hotter than the upper 80s....
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#22 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:54 pm

The ULL moving through the bahamas will bring south florida a good chance of rain and thunderstorms during the next day or two.

Image

Afternoon NWS discussion out of miami..

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO SHOULD ALSO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND
MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...AND REMAIN OVER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED
POPS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY OVER THE CWA.
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#23 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 26, 2007 3:51 pm

Winds are picking up across all of South Florida and the pressures are starting to fall......

Latest observations as of 4:00pm EST Jun 26th...

W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 87 71 58 E12 30.15S
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 87 68 52 E16 30.12F
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 88 69 53 E13G21 30.12F
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 87 69 54 E15 30.13F
PEMBROKE PINES SUNNY 88 66 48 E13 30.13F
OPA LOCKA SUNNY 88 68 51 E16 30.12F
MIAMI MOSUNNY 88 65 46 E15G22 30.11F
MIAMI BEACH N/A 86 73 65 E13 30.12F
WEST KENDALL SUNNY 88 69 53 E15 30.11F
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 87 72 61 E13 30.12F
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#24 Postby ftolmsteen » Tue Jun 26, 2007 5:01 pm

A local TV Station in Tampa(baynews 9) is indicating that a surface low may develop in the eastern gulf once the wave passes through FL. Once in the gulf it looks like the low (if it develops) it would drift NW towards Pensacola.
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#25 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Jun 26, 2007 7:49 pm

All the weather associated with that ULL and wave has really broken up. I've seen way too many "tropical waves" promise us rain, only to piddle out and provide nothing more than a fast-moving cumulus shower.
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#26 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Jun 26, 2007 8:02 pm

Thats what i was saying a few nights back lol wouldn't be surprised if it went poof...

I think with the ULL over florida tommorow and some sunshine we might get some strong thunderstorms over the area.Adrian
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#27 Postby boca » Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:46 pm

They still have the pops at 70% should should be lowered to 40% at the most because the fickle wave which they always over advertised fizzled out and I'm not surprised. When waves blow up with convection in the Bahamas they always seem to fizzle out before they get here. Why who knows its just the way it is. I think well get a passsing shower thats it.
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#28 Postby jdray » Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:18 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST
700 MB CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES
. A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA...AND PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS EASTERLY FLOW EXIST SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS...
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY WEAKENING AFTER PUSHING ONSHORE.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA-
BREEZES EFFECT TO YIELD AN INCREASE OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD ALONG WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRIER AND THIS MAY LEAD TO WET MICRO-BURSTS.

WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF JAX CWA TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED POPS FOR GEORGIA AREAS NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 82 DUE TO
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS ALONG WITH POSITION OF UPPER HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE...MOST
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION
IS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS INLAND.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY WEST OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY...WITH PLUME OF EVEN DEEPER TROPICAL AIR IMPACTING THE
AREA WITH PWATS LIKELY INCREASING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. LIKELY POPS
ARE CURRENTLY IS PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA EACH
DAY...WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF JAX CWA. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN...ALTHOUGH WET MICRO-BURSTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH RICH TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL WILL GENERALLY
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING PERIODS. GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DEEP SCALE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING FROM THE NORTH
LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOWER POPS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


It will cause some heavy rains here due to the High Pressure and it interacting. Although they are only list 60% tomorrow for North Florida.
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#29 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:53 am

already getting pounded by the heavy stuff....with more on the radar....check it out

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#30 Postby Beach0612 » Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:26 am

Our blob around Key West is bigger than your blob haha
Sorry I'm bored :oops:
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#31 Postby boca » Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:32 am

Beach0612 wrote:Our blob around Key West is bigger than your blob haha
Sorry I'm bored :oops:


Hey can I borrow your blob from Key West and drop into Lake O. :lol:
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#32 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Jun 27, 2007 10:38 am

PLEASE send some of those "blobs" our way!!! It's been so insanely hot and humid up here that I'm beginning to question the logic of taking a nice shower before heading outside for any activities!! I may as well go out sweaty and stinky because I get that way almost immediately when I walk out the door!!! :lol:
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#33 Postby Beach0612 » Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:09 am

Looking forward to the rains here - its always amusing watching the tourists ride the scooters in a good downpour!

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes" target="_blank
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#34 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jun 27, 2007 11:12 am

:D

Image

60http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/gfs_p60_060l.gif

000
FXUS62 KTBW 271339 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
938 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

AFTER FURTHER REVIEW WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCREASE WINDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOCAL OBSERVATION ALREADY INDICATING SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.


.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDING DATA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS DRY AIR
HOWEVER SHOULD BE LESS OF A INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (VIA
SOUNDING DATA) HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO (PW`S
NOW AT 1.65") AND 88D RETURNS CONFIRMS THIS BY DEPICTING A GOOD DEAL
SHOWER/TSTMS ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE ADJACENT GULF.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW VIA 88D VADS AND
MORNING RAOB DATA SHOULD AGAIN PIN OR NEGATE THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE...HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (LI`S ~-6 TO -8C) AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST
POPS (~50%) EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE RESIDES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS (~-8 TO -9C) MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF
THIS...SO NO MORNING ZONE UPDATE REQUIRED.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 271414
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL[img][/img]
1014 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE EAST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
OFF FROM THE ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH THE
DAY AS PER WRF AND RADAR TRENDS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS
THERE. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER INTERIOR/GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS
AS WELL SINCE SUNNY SKIES THERE THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO ALLOW NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.89 INCHES WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY
UNIFORM ALL THE WAY UP...BUT UNSTABLE WITH THE H5 TEMP AT -9.3C
AND CAPE >3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE 20 KT AND SO GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE TAMPA
SOUNDING SHOWS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE DRY AIR NOT ERODING THERE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

OVER THE MARINE AREAS...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY...SO UPDATED THE WINDS TO
REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER ESPECIALLY THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.
/GREGORIA

Image

Image
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#35 Postby tgenius » Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:06 pm

I find it funny that the rain that was heading for Miami since this morning seems to have hit an invisible wall, it is not making it to Miami!
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#36 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:11 pm

its called the land airmass!! it does that .. cant stand it cooler stable air from the night before .. its annoying ... but once the land heats up storms will fire . but the will be inland so miami should only see an occasional shower
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#37 Postby Frank2 » Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:32 pm

So far it's been a big disappointment - aside from two light showers and some clouds, there's been nothing from this wave (or waves) in this part of South Florida...

Last night, the dumb local media was headlining this as "double trouble" (I guess double to them is two drops of rain)...

Frank
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#38 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:53 pm

the wave itself appears to be back near 75W. The rain is coming
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Re: Midweek tropical wave for Florida

#39 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:06 pm

HOORAY!! It looks like I'm getting ready to be at least clipped by one of those little "blobs"!! In fact I just heard a clap of thunder!! BRING IT!! :D :D :D
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#40 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:23 pm

Very windy here with some brief rain...
though it was mostly a wind event for me

the heaviest rain is west of me over
central and western pinellas
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