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No big deal [Florida straits]
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Aric Dunn
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No big deal [Florida straits]
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Jun 28, 2007 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Meso
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Re: No big deal
Heh,Was just looking at this and trying to find a topic where it'd be relevant... Oh well,Don't think we have anything else to watch,so yeah... 
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Aric Dunn
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Re: No big deal
Meso wrote:Heh,Was just looking at this and trying to find a topic where it'd be relevant... Oh well,Don't think we have anything else to watch,so yeah...
the 12 z nogaps looks like its hinting at something now as well .. need to look around some more
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Re: No big deal
We've been in a typical June pattern for awhile now. You really have to use your imaginiation to see something popping up anytime soon imho. I can't believe I jumped the gun on the little low that moved off of Florida last week, like a lot of us here I am ready to see something develop. If anything the lack of activity and convection pretty much anywhere has really let the waters heat up.
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Re: No big deal
What's the word the real Santa used in Miracle on 34th Street (when commenting on how some Santas who were not doing their job) - spurious?
It looks like a spurious GFS low to me...
It looks like a spurious GFS low to me...
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Jevo
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Re: No big deal
Yeah Aric there was a point last night when I was going to put up a GFS during the height of the 05 season last night and pass it off for next week.... But then I realized that was just the beer talkin..... but there will be one night where Mr. Samuel Adams gets his way MARK MY WORDS!!!!!!!!! 
huh... what was that all about
huh... what was that all about
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Aric Dunn
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Re: No big deal
Jevo wrote:Yeah Aric there was a point last night when I was going to put up a GFS during the height of the 05 season last night and pass it off for next week.... But then I realized that was just the beer talkin..... but there will be one night where Mr. Samuel Adams gets his way MARK MY WORDS!!!!!!!!!
huh... what was that all about
what ... ??
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Aric Dunn
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Re: No big deal
again no need to worry its only the nam and the cmc showing something
well maybe the nogaps but not clear
well maybe the nogaps but not clear
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Aric Dunn
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Re: No big deal
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Aquawind
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Re: No big deal
The NAM initiaized to far south and is bunk..
000
FXUS62 KTBW 261744
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST TONIGHT APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING WEST INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
ACTUALLY TURNS IT NORTH UP ALONG THE FL EAST COAST WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.
AFTER REVIEWING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM
INITIALIZED THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE GFS...SO WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH
RESPECT TO ITS SOLUTION AND LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME
000
FXUS62 KTBW 261744
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2007
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST TONIGHT APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING WEST INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
ACTUALLY TURNS IT NORTH UP ALONG THE FL EAST COAST WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST ON THURSDAY.
AFTER REVIEWING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM
INITIALIZED THE UPPER LOW TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE GFS...SO WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH
RESPECT TO ITS SOLUTION AND LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME
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Aric Dunn
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Re: No big deal
ok there might be something there now convection a little more concntrated but
no big deal yet but maybe something ..
no big deal yet but maybe something ..
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Aric Dunn
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Re: No big deal
and possible even a low forming in this area over the next day or so, or even a little further north but no big deal yet need to watch 
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Aric Dunn
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Re: No big deal
boca wrote:Which way would the future possible low move if it formed in this area?
slowly but wnw .. till the trough over the mid west slides east.. to eventually pick up everything down there.. it could make it to the gulf then there maybe something more to watch
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windstorm99
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Re: No big deal
Dont see any development just an ULL moving threw florida with some tropical moisture behind it which keep south florida wet the next couple of days.NAM model is useless for tropical use.Adrian
Wide visible shot of the area.
Wide visible shot of the area.
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