"Rapid Intensification" forecasting/errors

[TPACane07]

First, it is nice to be back...took a hiatus for a while. This board is addicting, and full of great passion for the tropics, forecasting, etc.

My point to ponder...how will the NHC conquer their stated challenges with rapid intensifcation storms (ie Wilma, Katrina, dennis, etc)

Imagine a steamy August afternoon in the Southern GOM...a TS brews up, hits RI ala Wilma, and heads N or NE toward the coast...with little to no lead time for evacs in affected areas?

It seems like the GFDL has been right more than wrong over the years with regard to predicting high spinups (except with Wilma, but that was a freak case)

comments welcome!

[Derek Ortt]

I think if an evac is bothched again, it will be due to poor emergency management response, poor public response, or a butchered track forecast.

Prior to Katrina, the last botched evac was in Opal in 1995, and that was due to a butchered track forecast (the models for some reason did not have the big trough that captured the storm). The warning lead time was only about 18 hours prior to the arrival of hurricane force winds, and only about 12 hours before TS winds, with only 4 of those hours being daylight hours

[MGC]

The evac of La might have been screwed up but over here in Mississippi the warning went out shortly after the NHC shifted the landfall to the La/Ms coast. I still can't understand why anyone would want to stay for a hurricane with 175mph winds just off the coast. Perhaps it was because the people in New Orleans had all ways got lucky and the storm shifted and missed NO. In a way they were right again as NO did miss the core of Katrina's winds. No one counted on the levee failure.....MGC

[DanKellFla]

I would guess that there are some aspiring meteorologists going for their PhDs using big computers to make new models. It took a long time for the NHC to get as good as they are for tracks, it will take a long time to predict intensification.

[Frank2]

It's not just NHC's problem - intensity forecasting is an unknown in meteorology in general, as Steve Lyons often mentions on TWC...

[Downdraft]

With current technology I'm not sure we will ever solve the problem of rapid intentisification of a hurricane approaching landfall. The key then is in preparation and planning. It would be as simple as preparing and taking action one full category higher than what is forecast. My greatest concern coming from inside the "biz" is that our government now relies to heavily on NIMS (National Incident Management System) and the NRP (National Incident Response Plan.) The exercise of both in Katrina to me it seems failed miserably. Michael Chernoff waited far to long to declear Katrina an "incident of national significance" and introduced a totally miserable level of management into FEMA and their response. It's true this was all compounded by a Mayor and Governor caught up events far beyond their capability to handle them. While the government was concerned with Joint Field Offices and the Principle Federal Officer, etc., etc., people died.
In my area we can't even get people to buy weather radios and turning two major interstate highways one way on both sides is going to be a nightmare for a real evacuation. Discounting law enforcement, fire/rescue and other first responders totally dediciated to do their jobs if you depend on the government to issue evacuation orders, or bail you out during or after the storm your probably going to wind up dead. Sorry to say that but I think it's the true. If a storm blows up approaching landfall it's going to kill a lot of people.

[wobblehead]

I think if an evac is bothched again, it will be due to poor emergency management response, poor public response, or a butchered track forecast.

Prior to Katrina, the last botched evac was in Opal in 1995, and that was due to a butchered track forecast (the models for some reason did not have the big trough that captured the storm). The warning lead time was only about 18 hours prior to the arrival of hurricane force winds, and only about 12 hours before TS winds, with only 4 of those hours being daylight hours

As I recall I turned in for the night with Opal approx. south of Mobile at CAT1 or 2 I think. It being October most folks didn't think it would intensify. Evidently it hit the warm loop current and exploded over night. The next morning word got around quick that it was a cat4 or 5 and moving fairly quick riding that trough and folks were really scrambling to get ready. This scenario could be a real deadly disaster had it hit a highly populated area.