Possible Low Pressure Development in SE GOM or FL Straits?

[ronjon]

A few models are hinting at low pressure development near S FL or the eastern GOM. The CMC for the last 3 or 4 runs develops a tropical cyclone off the SE FL coast. Not much model support but about the only place somewhat favorable for development is the eastern GOM with shear values between 5 and 10 kts.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation" target="_blank" target="_blank

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
138 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT -FRIDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING TO OVER 2") WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES OVERNIGHT AND WILL ADVERTISE 30-40% POPS IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES...TAPERING BACK TO ~20% FAR NORTH. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER IN DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA/FL STRAITS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN TAKING THIS LOW NORTH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON FRIDAY...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.

LIKE YESTERDAY THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO NOT DEPICT THIS... ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK LOW OFF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND IGNORE THIS LOW FOR NOW AND USE A BLEND OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope we get a weak
tropical disturbance
that dumps tons and tons
of rain over south
florida and central florida where the drought is bad