No big deal [Florida straits]

[Aric Dunn]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272105
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...
FLORIDA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Notice the NHC doesn't give movement to this tropical wave.

yep which mean it will be sitting there .... hmm wonder what could happen if it sits there. !!??

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, the winds have switched because we are moving into the western portions of the wave

Does not mean anything is developing

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, the winds have switched because we are moving into the western portions of the wave

Does not mean anything is developing

no not exactly !!!
are you asking me .. or trying to tell me something
question is does it mean it wont?

man i love when he just pops in here and post one sentence and leave just as fast..

[boca]

yeah, the winds have switched because we are moving into the western portions of the wave

Does not mean anything is developing

no not exactly !!!
are you asking me .. or trying to tell me something
question is does it mean it wont?

Its definitely not out of the relm for something to pop tonight or tomorrow from this wave which looks a heck better on sat then on Tuesday.

[Cyclone1]

It says significant development is out of the question. But that doesn't mean regular development is. Gotta look for those key words.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, the winds have switched because we are moving into the western portions of the wave

Does not mean anything is developing

no not exactly !!!
are you asking me .. or trying to tell me something
question is does it mean it wont?

Its definitely not out of the relm for something to pop tonight or tomorrow from this wave which looks a heck better on sat then on Tuesday.

agreed.
let me think back for a sec ..hmmm the past couple of days the only way you could tell there was a wave was a small narrow line of spotty showers.. but now we have a huge change there is a large area of curved cloud lines starting from the se then bending back to the ne around andros with increased convection .not necessarily organized convection but a big difference.. but yeah no big deal

[Aric Dunn]

It says significant development is out of the question. But that doesn't mean regular development is. Gotta look for those key words.

huh .. what says that...
the outlook does not say out of the question??

[TheRingo]

Upper-level winds are not favorable for
significant development at this time.

maybe later?

[Aric Dunn]

Upper-level winds are not favorable for
significant development at this time.

maybe later?

exactly ...
actually they are not that terrible ..

[Cyclone1]

What I meant was, they don't say it's not going to develop. They just say it's not going to develop "significantly". But still who cares? No big deal. Nope.

[Aric Dunn]

What I meant was, they don't say it's not going to develop. They just say it's not going to develop "significantly". But still who cares? No big deal. Nope.

no significant development at THIS TIME ..

but yeah .. no big deal everyone just go about your business just when it starts getting windy dont go outside LOL

[Aric Dunn]

cuba radar http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's no big deal for just one more month then when
august hits kaboom!!!

but anyway...slow development can't be ruled
out if it just sits there...but we must see
if the convection maintains itself....

[Aric Dunn]

i tell you what we wont have to worry about the ssts being to cool lol

[miamicanes177]

no need to watch this until the wind shear decreases. Until this occurs you can stick a fork in it before it even has a chance to sniff at developing.

[Aric Dunn]

no need to watch this until the wind shear decreases. Until this occurs you can stick a fork in it before it even has a chance to sniff at developing.

well i disagree.. wind shear although not good for a major development.. seeing this get organized a little more while the shear is strong is quite possible.... and you should always watch everything because you never know..

and we are only talking about 15 to 20 kt.. and no mid level shear .... with the shear forecast to become a little more favorable .. you just dont say things out of the blue based on one visual..

[Aric Dunn]

oh yeah for got .... no big deal though !! lol

[fci]

I'm selfish for rain.
If this thing (not even warranting an Invest, I might add) does develop then we may not get the rain that we need. I have seen this many times before (usually later in the season). If it just stays disorganized and moves over us we get a lot of rain and then when it passes it shifts winds to SW bringing PM T-Storms to us.
I just want the rain.
And a lot of it.
And then, more rain
And.......

[Derek Ortt]

what are some of you seeing? There is nothing at all that suggests the slightest chance of development at the present time. There is little net convergence at the surface and no outflow. No chance with those conditions.

This is a rain threat, and not likely to be a TC threat

[Recurve]

Yeah. There is not much happening to make anything get organized. Just moisture coming to Florida.

It's a rumbly night here right now.